Pacers vs. Heat Betting Odds & Pick: Fade Miami in Jimmy Butler’s Return

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Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Victor Oladipo

  • Check out our betting preview for Monday's NBA matchup between Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat.
  • Indiana has been red-hot during bubble play, and analyst Joe Dellera expects the Pacers to continue their winning ways if T.J. Warren suits up on Monday
  • Check out his full game breakdown below, including odds, picks, and predictions for tonight's matchup.

Pacers vs. Heat Betting Odds

Pacers odds +2.5 [BET NOW]
Heat odds -2.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline +120/-141 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 220 [BET NOW]
Time Monday at 8 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Monday at 6:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The most likely No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the East face off in a tune up before the playoffs. They both have the same record and Philadephia is a half-game back, but both the Heat and the Pacers own tiebreakers over the Sixers. Will these teams test out different rotations or will they lay off and hold their cards close to the vest?

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat enter this matchup without young star Kendrick Nunn who left the bubble for personal reasons. Both Goran Dragic (ankle) and Jimmy Butler (foot) are listed as probable for this contest.

Miami has not had a very successful bubble. It is 2-3 straight up with just a -0.5 Net Rating. This is mainly because it is about four points worse on defense per game in the bubble than the rest of the regular season.

It will be interesting to see how many minutes Dragic and Butler both see here. There’s a clear desire to warm up and get into a rhythm before the playoffs, but since Butler missed the last three games I can see Miami easing him in a bit.

Butler’s return is critical for this young Miami team. It struggled to close out the last two games that both resulted in losses, and it was clear that his leadership and tenacity on the court was missed.

Indiana Pacers

T.J. Warren is listed as questionable with a sore right foot. It will be interesting to see the on-court dynamics between Warren and Jimmy Butler if they both play. Their last interaction on the court left Warren ejected and Butler blowing kisses as he left the game. This was followed by Butler calling him “trash” in an Instagram post. There certainly is no love lost between the two and the next time they meet is sure to be entertaining.

The Pacers are 4-1 in the bubble, and they have the fifth-best Net Rating (2.9). They have had awesome performances across the board as their eFG% is third best in the bubble (56.7%), and although the Pacers are due for a bit of regression they have no deviated from their typical gameplan.

On the season, they were the best mid-range shooting team in the NBA and they are the best in the bubble as well, per Cleaning the Glass.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is the first of two games between the Pacers and the Heat this week. These two teams will likely see each other in a week in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

I’d wait to see whether Warren actually plays or not, but this should be a close game. Take the points and back the Pacers who are 37-28-5 against the spread this season against a Heat team that needs to find some momentum.

The PICK: Pacers +2.5 [Bet $20+ on the Pacers at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]

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