Heat vs. Pacers Odds & Pick (Friday, Aug. 14): Look to Live-Bet Indiana
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kendrick Nunn.
- Check out our betting preview for Friday's NBA matchup between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.
- Miami is saddled with major injury-related inactives for the season finale, leading to strong value on the Pacers' team total.
- Read on for game odds, predictions and picks, including why Roberto Arguello is looking to live-bet Indiana after tipoff.
Heat vs. Pacers Betting Odds
|Heat odds||+1 [BET NOW]|
|Pacers odds||-1 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-103/-114 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||218.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
The Miami Heat (44-28) face the Indiana Pacers (44-28) in each team’s final regular season game on Friday at 4 p.m. ET.
Although each team is locked into the 4-5 first round matchup in the East, the winner of this game will have “home court advantage” with virtual fans.
The Heat have won all three games against the Pacers this season, with their most recent victory coming on Monday. Miami cruised to a 114-92 win following a strong second half in Jimmy Butler’s return to action after a foot injury.
With the Heat and Pacers guaranteed to face each other in the first round on Tuesday, each team has little to play for and will likely be sitting the majority of their best players.
The following Heat players will not play on Friday: Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler (foot), KZ Okpala (personal) and Gabe Vincent (shoulder).
Miami also has several players listed as questionable, including Jae Crowder (knee), Andre Iguodala and Derrick Jones Jr. (knee).
The following Heat players will be active: Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard, Chris Silva, Udonis Haslem, Solomon Hill and Kyle Alexander.
With many notable absences, expect rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro to see plenty of shots. Nunn, who left the bubble for personal reasons last weekend, will play for the first time since returning.
Herro played 38 minutes (14 more than any other Heat player) and scored a career-high 30 points in the Heat’s previous game on Wednesday. He saw extended run with Miami’s stars during the first three quarters, and Herro remained on the court when the bench was cleared in garbage time.
I am surprised to see Duncan Robinson active and don’t expect him to play many minutes. Olynyk is also unlikely to play more than half the game, although he has a propensity to heat up instantly like a microwave. In Miami’s first bubble game, he went 8-for-11 for 20 points in 24 minutes against the Nuggets.
There aren’t any player totals available as of Thursday evening, but if you can get even money or better for Nunn or Herro to score 20 points or less, take it.
Like the Heat, Indiana will also play without several key contributors. Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner (wrist), T.J. Warren (foot) and Goga Bitadze (knee) are all out.
While the Pacers have three starters absent (in addition to all-star Domantas Sabonis, who is not in the bubble due to a foot injury), I like that they have more players available than the Heat.
Miami will be missing four of its most versatile defenders in Adebayo, Butler, Crowder and Iguodala. As a result, Indiana’s active roster likely outclasses the Heat on defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Miami had a 22-point lead with 10:21 remaining against the Thunder on Wednesday. Then, the Heat subbed-in players from the end of its bench, who subsequently blew that massive lead in just a single quarter of action.
Miami struggled to create quality shots on offense and had trouble getting stops on the other end. I expect the Heat to have similar trouble defensively in this game, but the offensive unit should see a boost with Kendrick Nunn returning to action.
Whereas the Heat sat their starters in Wednesday’s second half and blew a huge lead, Indiana sat its starters in the second half of a close game against the Rockets (who continued to play their starters) and impressively held on to win.
I like the Pacers to win this game, but with these teams playing in the first round of the playoffs, I don’t expect to see either team empty its bag of tricks. I don’t love the current value of the Pacers moneyline at -114, but there should be better value available in-game.
The Pacers team total sits at 108.5, and I’m jumping all over that number. Given the absence of Miami’s top defensive options, I would bet Indiana up to 115.
The Heat often start hot, and I expect Robinson to score early before resting for the majority of the second half. Wait for the Heat to take a lead before targeting the Pacers at +150 or better live.
Picks: Indiana team total up to 115; live bet the Pacers at +150 or better.