The 2026 NBA Finals tip off tonight as the New York Knicks bring their blistering 11-game win streak into San Antonio to battle Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.
While the vast majority of bettors will be focusing on the main markets, we’re skipping the traditional medians and attacking the First Three-Pointer Scored market, targeting a pair of Knicks' long shots backed by the schematic matchup.
Let's dive into our NBA Finals first basket props for Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 on Wednesday, June 3.
NBA Finals First Basket Props for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Knicks vs. Spurs First Three-Pointer Scored Pick
Josh Hart First Three-Pointer Scored (+1100)
By Joe Dellera
I am betting a hellacious prop in a market people barely ever touch: Josh Hart to make the first three-pointer of the game at +1100 on BetMGM.
This is a fun, quick-hitter prop where you don't need to deploy a full unit—you can easily run a partial unit just to win a full unit back.
If you look at social media, tape study, or listen to any basketball podcast right now, everyone is talking about how the Spurs are going to deploy ghost-coverage against Hart in this series. They are going to completely sag off him to pack the paint, leaving him with a bunch of open space.
I expect this to be the status quo from the jump, and screen grabs of his previous clean looks against the Spurs show that they do not guard him very closely at all.
Because of this style of coverage, I think the very first shot the Knicks will choose to take in these NBA Finals will be a scripted Hart three-pointer to test the defense.
He is either going to knock it down immediately or miss it—and if he misses, it's entirely possible he gets in his head and won't shoot another one all game.
We saw the same thing happen against Cleveland in Game 1 last round; they messed with his head early, but by Game 2, he came out absolutely ripping.
The standard prop market has adjusted to this coverage by pricing his main line at Over 1.5 threes with a heavily juiced -190 tag, and I have zero interest in laying that kind of tax.
Instead, I will be trying to capitalize on the defensive space he will be granted on the game's opening possessions and take the +1100 flyer on Hart to make the first three-pointer of the game.
Pick: Josh Hart First Three-Pointer Scored (+1100)
Knicks vs. Spurs First Three-Pointer Scored Pick
Karl-Anthony Towns First Three-Pointer Scored (+1000)
By Matt Moore
When you watch New York's early-game offensive scripts, they consistently execute a specific sequence.
They run an intentional off-ball screen to get Jalen Brunson the ball at the top, and then they immediately have Karl-Anthony Towns come up and set a ghost-screen to transition into a quick, wide-open pick-and-pop three-pointer.
The other avenue where this cashes is out in transition.
When the Knicks push the pace on a fast break, Towns is almost always the trailing big man.
The Spurs' defense naturally panics, sprinting backward to protect the rim against Brunson's downhill gravity, they forget about Towns trailing the play, he gets the ball at the logo with all the time in the world, and bang.
If you want to give yourself a little more cushion in case he isn't the absolute first player on the floor to hit from deep, you can also bet Towns to record a three-pointer within the first three minutes of the game at +490.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns First Three-Pointer Scored (+1000)
