The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will square off in Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Spurs are 4.5-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread (Spurs -4.5), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. San Antonio is priced as a -185 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New York is listed as a +154 underdog to pull off the upset.
The NBA Finals begin tonight, and the excitement level could not be any higher. The big-market, bad-luck Knicks take on a dynastic empire reborn under a new extraterrestrial scion. Let's get into my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions for NBA Finals Game 1 on Wednesday, June 3.
Knicks vs Spurs Prediction
- Knicks vs Spurs picks: Spurs -4.5 (-110), Over 218.5 (-110) + 4 Player Props
My Spurs vs. Knicks Game 1 best bets are on San Antonio to cover the spread, the total to go over 218.5 points, and four player props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs Spurs Odds for NBA Finals Game 1
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | +154 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
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Knicks vs Spurs NBA Finals Game 1 Preview
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
If the Knicks win, they deliver the championship their fans have been dreaming of for most of their adult lives.
Hoisting the trophy would finally close the wounds of the Ewing-era losses to Olajuwon and the Rockets, the structural failures of the Carmelo Anthony era, and whatever it was Stephon Marbury was doing for a while.
An NBA title would completely heal the scars of the Trae Young series, getting choked out by Tyrese Haliburton, and the agonizing years of failing to draw premier free agents to Madison Square Garden.
A ton is on the line for New York here, so let’s add to the drama by putting some money on the board with these legacies.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
If the Spurs win, San Antonio returns to what has felt like its rightful place at the top of the mountain for the last quarter-of-a-century-plus.
What is truly terrifying for the rest of the league, though, is that the NBA will have been conquered by a 22-year-old who still has not deeply scratched the core of what he’s capable of achieving with more training, strength, and experience.
If Victor Wembanyama can be the best player in the world and an NBA champion this early in his development, what does that mean for the rest of his career as he inevitably improves, provided he can stay healthy (knock on wood)?
We have to legitimately ask if this is the start of the greatest NBA career of all time. It is an insane question to pose when the current holder of that crown is still actively playing.
You can successfully argue Michael Jordan was a greater player at his peak, but he simply can’t match LeBron James’ longevity, records, and Finals appearances across time.
Knicks vs Spurs Picks, Betting Analysis
Spurs -4.5 (-110)
I’m trying to follow trends less, especially in these playoffs. Home-court value is down globally, teams are winning immediately off grueling Game 7s, and upsets have been heavily in vogue.
But, there’s a specific historic trend for this spot that I simply cannot ignore: When the home team in Game 1 has a better point differential on the season than their opponent, they are 17-2 SU and 16-3 (84%) ATS.
The better overall team usually wins Game 1, period. The best indicator of team strength is not record; you can win some games with luck variance. But point differential almost always gives you a clearer view of the difference in teams.
Then there’s something that’s been bugging me here, and it’s the line itself. I fundamentally cannot get to this number.
Home-court advantage in the playoffs is worth roughly 3.5 points. If you take the spread in Game 2 of these playoffs and the spread of Game 3, and assume no major public power rating adjustments, the average switch is 3.5 points. It’s been roughly that same baseline across the last five seasons.
So based on that math, the market is telling us the Spurs would only be 1-point favorites on a neutral court against the Knicks? The Spurs, who won nine more games than New York and finished with a +1.9 schedule-adjusted point differential via DunksAndThrees.com, are only a single point better in a neutral setting?
My raw modeling numbers make this spread Spurs -8.6, which is admittedly nonsense because the competitive gap between these two teams is not that wide. But let’s shorten it by two points to -6.6 and then give the Knicks a full two-point upgrade for how they completely dominated the Eastern Conference playoff bracket.
That gets us to -4.6. However, the Spurs also just eliminated the defending champion Thunder, who possessed the best SRS in the league and the 6th-best point differential of all time. That has to be worth at least a one-point upgrade, bringing us to a minimum of Spurs -5.6.
I just can’t see any logical way that -4.5 should be the number. San Antonio is at home, and it takes opponents a while to adjust to playing against Wembanyama's unique length.
The Knicks are not in Kansas anymore—or Ohio, for that matter. This is a serious Spurs team who intends to win, and in Game 1, I think they win and cover, despite the fact that I ultimately like New York to take the series.
Over 218.5 (-110)
I love the over in this spot. The Spurs and Knicks both heavily design their offenses to generate open, catch-and-shoot looks from beyond the arc, and conversely, both teams surrender plenty of them as a direct result of how they scheme defensively.
The Knicks will place their focus on hunting efficient perimeter shooting and getting quality looks out of their high pick-and-roll actions. The Spurs will look to run at every opportunity, getting out in semi-transition for quick-strike triples.
San Antonio enters the round ranked No. 1 in transition three-point attempts and third in overall make percentage during these playoffs.
The Spurs-Thunder series consistently sailed over the total despite Oklahoma City's limited offensive floor and elite defensive metrics.
Now that San Antonio is matched up against New York, it will be significantly easier for the Spurs to score, but much harder for them to consistently get stops.
Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring opening salvo to the Finals.
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-113)
Honestly, this matchup features two teams that are much better equipped to score on one another than they are to get consistent stops.
I don't love how San Antonio's perimeter defense is going to be challenged by the Knicks' wing ball handlers, and Mikal Bridges is poised to exploit that structural bottleneck.
Looking back at the regular-season data, Bridges absolutely torched the Spurs, averaging 19.0 points per game across their two meetings while shooting a blistering 58% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc.
He was dynamic operating out of half-court sets, generating 24 points on just 22 pick-and-roll possessions against San Antonio this year.
Bridges has been cutting relentlessly lately and getting to his spots in the mid-range with comfort.
The Spurs are going to have to pick their poison, and Bridges will likely be a beneficiary of that.
Head-to-Head Assists: Josh Hart Over Stephon Castle (+268)
I'll admit, I was originally a bit skeptical of the Josh Hart assists angle, assuming the corner spacing wouldn't be there. But looking closer at the film, the matchup mechanics are beautiful.
Even if the Spurs try to ghost cover and hide Wembanyama on Hart, the Knicks are going to drag Hart up to set guard-wing screens for Jalen Brunson.
Wembanyama isn't going to step out 35 feet to play at the level; he’s going to drop and plant himself a foot behind the three-point line at highest.
That high screening alignment creates a massive pocket for Brunson to hit Hart on the short roll.
Once Hart gets downhill past Wemby, the low man is forced to help over, leaving Hart in a perfect position to dish out easy dimes to the weak side.
With Stephon Castle's playmaking likely deferring to De'Aaron Fox, getting Hart at this juicy +268 price tag should be a bargain.
Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+116)
The tracking data from the regular-season series tells you everything you need to know: Julian Champagnie registered a whopping 33 catch-and-shoot opportunities against the New York Knicks.
That is cleanly the highest volume of any player on either roster in this matchup.
San Antonio dramatically evolved as the year progressed, leaning heavily into their identity as a spot-up team and showing immense trust in their perimeter targets.
The Knicks' defensive geometry naturally surrenders looks from the perimeter, meaning those corner threes are going to be consistently present for Champagnie.
If you want a creative way to play this angle, DraftKings has a combo prop pairing Champagnie and Brunson over 4.5 combined threes at a reasonable -121 price tag.
Champagnie should be able to get to his spots all night long.
Karl-Anthony Towns First Three-Pointer Scored (+1000)
This is a fun situational look based directly on how the Knicks script their early offensive attacks.
New York loves to run a specific set right out of the gate: they trigger an off-ball screen to get Brunson the rock, and then immediately have Karl-Anthony Towns flow into a ghost screen for a quick pick-and-pop three-point attempt.
We also see them do it on early fast breaks where Towns acts as the trailing big; the defense naturally sprints back to protect the rim, completely forgets about him at the top of the key, and he steps right into an open look.
I am backing Towns to hit the first three-pointer of the game at +1000 (BetMGM). Or, if you want to give yourself some structural leeway, head over to FanDuel and grab Towns to record a three-pointer within the first three minutes of the game at +490.
Matt Moore's NBA Finals Game 1 Best Bets
- Spurs -4.5 (-110)
- Over 218.5 (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-113)
- Head-to-Head Assists: Josh Hart Over Stephon Castle (+268)
- Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+116)
- Karl-Anthony Towns First Three-Pointer Scored (+1000)
