In yet another thrilling contest, the Spurs took Game 3, 115-111, when the series shifted to the "World's Most Famous Arena." In the process, this became just the second NBA Finals in which the road team won each of the first three games. The Spurs hope to continue that trend as they look to even up the series on Wednesday.
Stephon Castle will be a factor in that with a strong series thus far. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby are expected to keep leading the way for the Knicks. However, the Spurs may be fine with that regarding Brunson.
Let's get into my NBA Finals Game 4 parlay for Wednesday, June 10.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Spurs vs Knicks Game 4
The Angle: San Antonio Forces Brunson to Beat Them
Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
Last season, Brunson won Clutch Player of the Year, and he has finished in the top five of the voting every season since he joined the Knicks.
So this may be counterintuitive, but the Spurs may be fine with him doing the bulk of the shooting, particularly in the first 43 to 45 minutes of the game.
The Spurs faced a hobbled Anthony Edwards, but they held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 41% shooting in the Western Conference Finals.
Now, Brunson is shooting 37% from the field through the first three games. He has still gotten his numbers because of high volume.
Brunson is averaging 27.3 points per game in the series, having scored 25 points in two of the three games.
Brunson has 82 points in the series on 81 field goal attempts and has made 15 of 17 free throw attempts. His 39.6% usage rate would be the third-highest in NBA Finals history if it holds for the entire series.
However, this has led to Karl-Anthony Towns not scoring a single point in the fourth quarter of this series.
After 126 total touches in the first two games, Towns had just 45 in Game 3. Additionally, Mikal Bridges, who had scored in double digits in nine straight games entering the NBA Finals, has been held under 10 points in two of the first three games.
Brunson has gotten his, having now scored 25 points in six of his last nine games against the Spurs. However, if the Spurs can limit the impact of his teammates, Mitch Johnson will be happy with that tradeoff.
Pick: Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
The Correlated SGP: Player Props + Game Total Over
Stephon Castle Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds, And Assists
In Game 3, Castle had 23 points, five rebounds and five assists.
Adding to the history being made in this series, he now has the second-most 15/5/5 games in NBA playoff history before a player's 22nd birthday. He is one behind Magic Johnson and one ahead of LeBron James, so I'd say that is pretty good company.
Now, 15/5/5 also equates to at least 25 points, rebounds, and assists, which Castle does not have much problem getting to.
In the regular season, Castle averaged 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game, and he is averaging 19 points, five rebounds, and 6.3 assists in the playoffs.
Averaging 29 PRA per game in the regular season and 30 in the playoffs, Castle goes over this line on average.
He has cleared this line in 14 of 21 games this postseason, including two of the first three games in this series.
Castle has gotten several of his baskets on difficult drives to the rim. The physicality in this series is right up his alley, although he may have to navigate some foul trouble after Mike Brown was working the officials in his postgame press conference.
Still, Castle has held Brunson to 14 points on 5-of-20 from the field in 96 possessions this season. His two-way presence makes him essential to this Spurs team and should get him enough minutes to clear his PRA again.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points
Anunoby was asked if he thinks he is slept on as an offensive player, and he said, "I think so, yeah. I do."
It was a short, subtle and straight-to-the-point answer, which is kind of like his offensive game. After 28 points in Game 3, Anunoby is nearly averaging 20 points (19.9) per game in the playoffs.
He has now scored 17 points in 12 of 15 games (80%) this postseason on 57/47/86 shooting splits. That includes each of the first three games of this series, and he is averaging 17.4 points over his last nine games against San Antonio.
Given his two-way ability for the Knicks, Anunoby has been an elite third option, scoring 20 points six times this postseason. If he keeps up his hot shooting from the perimeter, he may add a seventh tonight.
Pick: OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points
Over 216.5
The total has been between 215.5 and 217.5 for the first three games of this series, and Game 4 is on track to close in that range if this line holds before tip.
The Knicks shot 41 and 42% in Games 1 and 2, and the Spurs shot 36% in Game 1, which contributed to both games landing under. These teams are 3-3 to the over in six meetings this season, but the games have averaged 223.5 points.
In Game 3, a big first half did the heavy lifting as the teams combined for 121 of the 226 points in the first half. The Spurs shot 46%, and the Knicks shot 45% from the field, a bit of positive regression from the first two games.
As a result, the over hit with relative ease. I don't expect both teams to shoot 50% given the defenses in this series, but if they shoot up to their usual capabilities, 217 points is not a lot to ask for as the final leg of this parlay.
Pick: Over 216.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+505)
- Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
- Stephon Castle Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points
- Over 216.5
Compounding Angle (+1413)
- Jalen Brunson 30+ Points
- Stephon Castle 30+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- OG Anunoby 20+ Points
- Over 219.5
