Saturday’s Best NBA Player Prop Betting Picks: Bradley Beal in Smash Spot
Photo credit: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Bradley Beal
- Saturday's nine-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Wizards SG Bradley Beal, Warriors PF Marquese Chriss, and Kings C Dewayne Dedmon
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s nine games:
- Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards: 8 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers: 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Wizards SG Bradley Beal
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (-132)
Beal has had to take on more playmaking responsibilities this year with John Wall out of the lineup, and he’s done an admirable job. He’s averaged a career-best 6.4 assists per game, and he’s handed out at least six assists in six of his past seven contests.
He should have plenty of opportunities to pile up assists today vs. the Nets. The Wizards lead the slate with an implied team total of 121.25 points, and this game should be played at a breakneck pace. The Wizards currently rank sixth in that department, while the Nets rank ninth.
This line seems low given Beal’s recent production and matchup. I like the over up to -150.
Warriors PF Marquese Chriss
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-114)
Chriss has seen a healthy amount of playing time for the Warriors recently, but that may not be the case today. Kevon Looney will rejoin the rotation, and his presence will likely cut into Chriss’ workload. He’s currently projected for just 20.6 minutes in the Fantasy Labs Models. Chriss is averaging just 7.8 points over 18.1 minutes this season, so any reduction in playing time could be disastrous for his scoring output.
I like this prop because we can win it in a variety of ways. Chriss could see less minutes than expected. He could have a cold shooting night. He could have less shot attempts than usual. These are all viable scenarios, so I’d play the under up to -130.
Kings C Dewayne Dedmon
THE PICK: Under seven rebounds (-103)
Dedmon is coming off 11 rebounds in his last game, so this seems like a nice opportunity to sell high on him. He saw an unexpected 30.1 minutes in that contest, but he’s expected to return to his normal workload today. He had played 23.5 minutes or less in each of his three previous contests and averaged just 5.7 rebounds over that time frame. That could spell trouble vs. the Lakers, who rank eighth in team rebound rate.
This line seems like an overreaction from Dedmon’s last game, so I’m willing to play the under up to -120.