NBA Player Props & Expert Picks: Fade CJ McCollum and Jalen Brunson (February 5)
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Herbert Jones #5 and CJ McCollum #3 of the New Orleans Pelicans.
- Tyler Schmidt has a pair of NBA prop bets for Sunday's slate.
- He's fading CJ McCollum and Jalen Brunson in tough matchups where they will need to score.
- Find Schmidt's picks and analysis below.
Sunday features a small slate of games as the Association is two weeks away from All-Star Game. The trade deadline is also near, so make sure to keep an eye on all of the news throughout the day. These two props below feature Jalen Brunson and CJ McCollum, who both face difficult matchups tonight. They both can score with ease, but can they get peripherals?
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jalen Brunson, Under 9.5 Assists and Rebounds (-130)
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | ESPN|
After missing one game due to an illness, Jalen Brunson returned last game to score 41 points against the Clippers while shooting 14-of-19 from the field and 5-of-7 from beyond the arc. In his first season with the Knicks, he is averaging a career-high 23.2 points and 6.2 assists per game as a key asset for the team.
Scoring has been the best feature of Brunson’s game recently. Over the last 13 games, he is averaging 29.5 points per game while recording a career-high 44 points against the Bucks in early January. However, Brunson’s peripherals have taken a step back with how much he has needed to score the ball.
Brunson has failed to record 10 or more assists and rebounds in eight of his last 10 games. With an 80% hit rate on the under in recent games and a slow-paced matchup against the 76ers, this feels like a very strong bet. The 76ers also rank sixth in Defensive Rating by allowing only 111.5 points per 100 possessions. They are also allowing the sixth-fewest rebounds and eighth-fewest assists.
Our NBA Prop Model has Brunson projected for only 8.5 assists and rebounds tonight, which is a full stat lower than his prop line. This matchup has the lowest total on the slate at 226 points as the Knicks are only implied for 110.75 points. Take the under on Brunson’s peripherals as he looks to keep up with Joel Embiid and James Harden in the scoring department to stay competitive.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
CJ McCollum, Under 4.5 Rebounds (-125)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The best prop on the board right now according to our NBA Prop Model is CJ McCollum under 4.5 rebounds. Capturing rebounds has never been a strength of McCollum’s game as he too relies on his scoring output. McCollum has failed to grab five rebounds in three straight and nine of his last 12 games.
Not only has McCollum failed in the rebounding department recently, but the Pelicans are struggling as a team. They lost 10 straight games before winning last night against the Lakers. They are home underdogs playing on a back-to-back despite the Kings playing without star point guard De’Aaron Fox tonight.
The Kings and Pelicans have basically flip-flopped positions in the standings. Winners of nine of their last 13 games, the Kings currently rank as the third-best team in the Western Conference. They are also only allowing 42.1 rebounds per game, which is currently tied for the fifth-best in the league.
Our Prop Model has McCollum projected for only 3.6 rebounds in this matchup, which is well below this prop line. Brandon Ingram is healthy, but keep an eye on his status since he missed the Pelicans’ last back-to-back. Jonas Valanciunas is also dealing with an injury, so this game line could get out of hand even with the Pelicans playing at home if Ingram and Valanciunas can’t play. Regardless of their status, the under on McCollum’s rebounds has value.
Pick: CJ McCollum Under 4.5 Rebounds
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