Saturday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown for Big Games (Sept. 19)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler
- The Miami Heat take on the Boston Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday night.
- Reed Wallach breaks down the game's best prop bets, including picks on Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, and Bam Adebayo.
- Check out all of Wallach's picks in his full breakdown below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Saturday’s player props come from Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals:
- Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat at 8:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler
The Prop: Over 3.5 Assists (-159)
I can not say enough about Butler’s play in this postseason. It hasn’t been about his scoring, but rather his play-making on both ends, namely his ability to facilitate for his teammates.
Butler has been averaging over four assists per game this postseason and content letting others score. Miami’s depth and ability to run off cuts and around screens has made them arguably the most dangerous offense left in the postseason.
Sixty-seven percent of Heat baskets come off assists, most of any team remaining according to NBA.com, and Butler is a main reason why with his selflessness on the court.
I expect Butler will continue to create for others and take what the stout Boston defense gives him as the Heat try to put some serious distance between them and the Celtics. The Player Prop tool marks this as a 10/10 play, projecting Butler for 4.6 assists in Game 3.
While you have to pay some to get this Over, I would still play this at 4.5 up to -120.
Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown
The Prop: Over 18.5 Points (-118)
The spotlight has come off Brown this series, as he has put up a steady but quiet 21 and 17 points in the first two games while Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart have seemingly carried the offense.
With its backs against the wall, I think we see Boston try to get Brown going. Towards the end of Game 2, some late Brown three’s kept the Celtics in it and he missed a potential game tying one in the corner.
Brown is averaging close to 21 points per game this postseason so I see this number a bit down due to a subdued start to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Our Player Prop tool projects Brown to score over 20 in this game, and this seems like the right time to buy low on the Celtic wing to have a breakout game with the season seemingly on the line.
I would play the over up to 19.5 at -110.
Miami Heat, Bam Adebayo
The Prop: Over 10.5 Rebounds (+115)
Adebayo has been fantastic thus far in the Conference Finals and a disruptive force on both ends. In the Miami zone that has given Boston fits to this point, Bam has been able to alter shots at the rim, but also clean the glass.
While this prop is a high mark, Adebayo is averaging 11 boards per game in the postseason and has went over this mark in nearly 50% of the games. The Celtics don’t have a great matchup for Adebayo to shut down his rebounding efforts. He is stronger than Daniel Theis and Robert Williams, faster than Enes Kanter, and simply bigger than Grant Williams, who I think will get more time in Game 3.
Adebayo has imposed his will through the opening two games of this series and there is little indication of that changing.
The Player Prop tool projects Adebayo for over 11 rebounds, so at + money, this is worth a bet, but wouldn’t play it past that.