The Spurs and Thunder have been considered teams of the future because of their already strong rosters and considerable assets. The Thunder made their future a reality when they won their first title last season since moving to Oklahoma City. They are attempting to become the first repeat champion in eight seasons, just as their best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, repeated as MVP yesterday.
Victor Wembanyama finished third in the MVP voting, and he will have something to say about the Thunder defending their title. He will also get to renew his rivalry with Chet Holmgren in the first game of what may be a long series.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Monday, May 18.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Thunder vs Spurs Game 1
The Angle: Wembanyama Limits Holmgren & Spurs Cover
Chet Holmgren Under 17.5 Points
Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are among the league's best rim protectors and have coveted skill sets given their abilities to stretch the floor. However, the similarities for them end there. They have not liked each other since the early stages of their careers, when they faced off at the FIBA U-19 World Cup.
However, Wembanyama has gotten the better of Holmgren statistically, and this season the wins have followed. In eight career meetings, Wembanyama is averaging 23.4 points, 11 rebounds and 3.5 blocks, while Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks, and the teams have each won four times.
Holmgren is averaging 13.2 points over his last nine games against the Spurs, and he has been held under 18 points seven times.
There are other factors besides just the Spurs' defense. There are not as many shots to go around on a team with SGA and Jalen Williams compared to Wembanyama, who is the Spurs' No. 1 option. Williams is back tonight, and Ajay Mitchell emerged in his absence.
Holmgren's usage or field goal attempts don't really change much with Williams, but he has scored 18 points in just three of the last 10 games Williams has played in. I look for that to continue tonight.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 17.5 Points
The Correlated SGP: Wemby & Castle Props
Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds
As mentioned, Wembanyama is averaging 11 rebounds when facing Holmgren. While the hit rate is under 50%, he has had 12 rebounds in four of those games, including 14 in his last game against the Thunder. Additionally, he has been gobbling up rebounds at an absurd rate in the playoffs.
Wembanyama is averaging 12.2 rebounds over his last eight playoff games. He has recorded 12 rebounds in six of those games, and the two misses came in a blowout and another when he was ejected.
He has had 18 rebound chances in seven of those games and has usually grabbed two-thirds of them. Two defensive teams of this caliber may lead to a lot of missed shots and rebound chances for him tonight.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds
Stephon Castle 15+ Points
In the playoffs, Stephon Castle is averaging 19.9 points per game, and he has scored 15 points in 10 of 11 games. Oklahoma City's defense will be his toughest test to date in the playoffs. However, he has scored 15 points in five of his last six games against the Thunder and had 14 in the lone miss.
Additionally, Castle is likely a player that the Thunder will dare to take open threes, like Portland and Minnesota did. He has made two 3s in four of his last six games against the Thunder and in seven of 11 playoff games. Two more triples would put him well on his way to 15 points. If he maintains his 26% usage rate in the playoffs and against the Thunder, he should get there.
Pick: Stephon Castle 15+ Points
Spurs +6.5
For the Spurs to win this series, they will have to win at least once in Oklahoma City, and tonight is their first opportunity. By now, you have likely heard that the Spurs won four of the five regular-season meetings. However, that really does not matter in this series.
The reason I like the Spurs is because of their personnel. While they do not have SGA, they are maybe the only team right now that can come close to matching the Thunder on the perimeter with Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper and Keldon Johnson. Additionally, I expect Wembanyama to get the better of his matchup with Holmgren. Williams touched on the difficulty that Wembanyama causes, stating, "They have a 7'5 guy that takes up a lot of space."
Additionally, the Thunder really have not been tested, as they played an overmatched Suns team and the Lakers missing Luka Doncic. They also lost two Game 1s at home last year to the Nuggets and Pacers. I like the Spurs to at least cover tonight and potentially steal Game 1 outright.
Pick: Spurs +6.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+385)
- Chet Holmgren Under 17.5 Points
- Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds
- Stephon Castle 15+ Points
- Spurs +6.5
Compounding Angle (+1237)
- Chet Holmgren Under 17.5 Points
- Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds
- Stephon Castle 20+ Points
- Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Made Threes
- Spurs Moneyline
