NBA Sharp Action: Betting Picks for Celtics vs. Bucks, Kings vs. Spurs (Friday, July 31)

Credit:

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Gordon Hayward and Khris Middleton

Jul 31, 2020, 04:31 PM EDT
  • Sharp bettors are making picks on tonight's NBA slate, and specifically targeting Celtics vs. Bucks (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Kings vs. Spurs.
  • The Celtics-Bucks total has risen from 216 to 220 since opening, while the Kings-Spurs number has shot from 214.5 to 223.
  • Find out how sharps have been contributing to those line moves below.

The NBA is back, but scoring in the NBA is … not. At least not yet.

Neither of Thursday’s opening games gave under bettors a sweat, as the Jazz and Pelicans — whose closing total was 229 — finished with 210 combined points, and the Clippers and Lakers — who closed at 220 — finished with just 204.

Perhaps that’s why tonight’s overs, which are usually very popular bets, aren’t getting the kind of support we’re accustomed to seeing in the betting market. In fact, only two of the six overs are seeing more than 50% of bets, and just one has topped the 60% mark.

As for sharps, though, they don’t seem too concerned with last night’s two-game sample — at least when it comes to a specific pair of tonight’s matchups.


Odds as of Friday at 2 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Celtics vs. Bucks

6:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Given the long break leading up to tonight’s games, each one has had plenty of time to take shape in the market. In some cases, like in this game, that time has led to some steady but significant line movement.

This total opened at 216, and is one of the two that’s drawn a majority of bettors, though it’s just a slight majority at 54%. And according to The Action Network’s tools, sharp bettors have been among it.

Over the past week, five Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market moves caused by sharp action — have been triggered on the over, with none going the other way to this point.

Most recently, the over drew professional action at 218.5 this morning, and as a result, now sits at 220.

Also worth noting is that the 54% of bettors landing on the over have accounted for 86% of actual money being wagered, meaning bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are behind a high-scoring game.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 216 to 220) [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Kings vs. Spurs

8 p.m. ET

A very similar story is unfolding in this game, and this one features even more movement.

Behind 49% of bets and 87% of money on the over, the total has risen all the way from 214.5 to 223 at DraftKings over the course of the past two weeks. And once again, SI Bet Signals confirm that sharps are behind the move.

Eight signals in this case have hit the over since last Friday, with still no sign of buyback as of this afternoon.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 214.5 to 223) [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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