Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry
- Wiseguys are betting two NBA games on Monday night, headlined by Houston Rockets-Indiana Pacers (7 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Memphis Grizzlies-Golden State Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET).
Historically, betting every Over in the NBA regular season has been a massive loser for the public and huge moneymaker for the sportsbooks.
Since 2005, Overs have gone 8,179-8,285 (49.7%), losing -515.3 units according to Bet Labs. This means a $100 bettor taking every Over would have lost over $51,500.
However, this year we’ve seen an Over renaissance. Thanks to rule changes, teams pushing the pace and the league-wide commitment to shooting more three-pointers, the Over has gone 76-62 (55.1%), winning +10.27 units.
Are sharp bettors going to tail the Over wave tonight? Or stick to their contrarian guns knowing regression is on the way?
After analyzing Monday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two NBA over/under bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.