Monday NBA Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rockets-Pacers, Grizzlies-Warriors
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry
- Wiseguys are betting two NBA games on Monday night, headlined by Houston Rockets-Indiana Pacers (7 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Memphis Grizzlies-Golden State Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET).
Historically, betting every Over in the NBA regular season has been a massive loser for the public and huge moneymaker for the sportsbooks.
Since 2005, Overs have gone 8,179-8,285 (49.7%), losing -515.3 units according to Bet Labs. This means a $100 bettor taking every Over would have lost over $51,500.
However, this year we’ve seen an Over renaissance. Thanks to rule changes, teams pushing the pace and the league-wide commitment to shooting more three-pointers, the Over has gone 76-62 (55.1%), winning +10.27 units.
Are sharp bettors going to tail the Over wave tonight? Or stick to their contrarian guns knowing regression is on the way?
After analyzing Monday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two NBA over/under bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (214)
Houston and Indiana are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the NBA, however, the allure of James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul and the high-flying Mike D’Antoni offense is too much to pass up for public Over bettors.
In the most heavily bet game of the night, nearly 85% of bets are going Over (the most lopsided total play of the night). This heavy public betting pushed the total up from 212 to 214.
Sharps then took advantage of this inflated line by hammering the Under 213.5, 214.5 and 215 at CRIS and BetOnline.
An added bonus for Pros on the Under: Marc Davis is in stripes tonight. Since 2005, Unders have hit at a 53.4% rate and produced +33.32 units won when Davis is the lead ref according to Bet Labs.
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (219)
Death, taxes and recreational bettors taking the Warriors Over.
Golden State is once again the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 124.1 points per game. That’s all the public needs to know. Easy Over, no matter what the total is.
Nearly 70% of bets are taking the Over. After opening at 219, this heavy public betting pushed the total up to 220.5.
That’s when sharps pounced on the inflated Under 220, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves at 5Dimes and BetOnline.
The BetOnline steam move is most notable at +11.5 units this season, the top performing bet signal overall.
This overload of sharp action dropped the total all the way down to 217 before it settled back up to 219.
Overall, we’re looking at a sharp line freeze. Despite lopsided Over betting, the total has remained frozen from open to current.
This indicates sharp under money with books reluctant to raise the total for fear of handing out additional points and value to wiseguy Under backers.
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