While late March is never the most exciting stretch of the NBA betting season, sharps are actually on a nice little run right now, much thanks to the Orlando Magic.
But with the Magic taking the night off, wiseguys have had to look elsewhere to find value on tonight's small NBA board, and they've landed on an 8 p.m. ET over/under.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET
Opening numbers for this total have been all over the place. While some books released the number at 216, others were already up to 219. In any case, just about all of them can agree that their opening number was at least a little bit too low.
Most of the market is up to a consensus of 219.5 at this point, and while the over has been the far more popular bet (70% of tickets), it isn't just Average Joes expecting a high-scoring game.
Those tickets have generated a ridiculous 97% of actual money being wagered on the total, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are also playing the over. I wouldn't expect a figure like 97% to hold up until tipoff, but the significant discrepancy is enough to serve as a good indication of professional action.
Confirming that indication have been two Sports Insights Bet Signals. Triggered whenever sharp action causes market-wide line moves, the signals have revealed smart money hitting the over at totals of 216 and 217.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 217 to 219.5)
