Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Buy Damian Lillard vs. the Thunder
Pictured: Blazers PG Damian Lillard (0), Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey-Getty Images
- Saturday's nine-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Warriors G D'Angelo Russell, Kings PG De'Aaron Fox, and Blazers PG Damian Lillard
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s five games:
- Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Warriors G D’Angelo Russell
THE PICK: Over 6.5 assists (-114)
The theme of today’s prop picks is undervalued PGs. Russell has been in-and-out of the lineup for the Warriors this season, but there is plenty to like with him at the moment. For starters, he’s been more focused on sharing the ball recently, handing out at least eight assists in each of his past two games. He’s also played more minutes since returning to the lineup after missing six games with a shoulder injury.
He should have the ball in his hands plenty tonight vs. the Magic. Draymond Green has been ruled out with a finger injury, and Russell has increased his assist rate by a team-high +2.5% with Green off the floor this season. Overall, he’s averaged 7.5 assists per 36 minutes in that situation.
Russell isn’t exactly a great distributor, but this line still feels low given his recent play and the Warriors current injury situation. I like the over up to -130.
Kings PG De’Aaron Fox
THE PICK: Over 6.5 assists (-134)
Fox is in a tough spot today vs. the Jazz, who rank ninth in defensive efficiency and tied for 20th in pace. That said, this line is simply too low for Fox, who has been on a tear recently. He’s handed out at least 10 assists in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 8.4 assists per 36 minutes this season. Fox has played at least 37.3 minutes in each of his past three contests, and there’s no reason to expect a decline in minutes today.
I’m not sure why this line is so low, but I’m not complaining. It’d play the over up to -175.
Blazers PG Damian Lillard
THE PICK: Over 7.5 assists (-134)
The Blazers will be without C.J. McCollum for tonight’s matchup vs. the Thunder, which means Lillard should have the ball in his hands more than usual. He’s unsurprisingly increased his usage rate with McCollum off the court this season, but he’s also displayed more upside as a distributor. He’s increased his assist rate by +4.4% in that situation, resulting in an average of 7.7 assists per 36 minutes. Lillard is coming off nearly 40 minutes in his last contest, and he handed out 12 assists over 41.7 minutes in his only game without McCollum this season.
The Thunder aren’t a particularly scary matchup, so I love Lillard’s prospects tonight. I’d play the over up to -170.