Spurs vs Nuggets Picks, Prediction Tonight | Best Bet for Sunday

Here's everything you need to know about Spurs-Nuggets with our Spurs vs Nuggets prediction and picks tonight for the best bet for Sunday, November 26

The Denver Nuggets play host to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday at 8:00 p.m. ET. Neither team is playing great basketball lately as Denver has dropped four of its past five and the Spurs have lost 11 straight. Both teams will look to get right on Sunday, though Denver is — deservedly — heavily favored.

However, it's the total that's catching my eye in this matchup. The number opened at 229.5, but has already moved down a bit. Let's dig into why I agree with that early movement and will be looking at the under.

Picks: Under 229.5 (Play to 227.5) | 1Q Under (Play to 58.5) 

Denver's struggles really date back Jamal Murray going out with an injury. In their first game without Murray, the Nuggets scored 134 and won by 18, but in the eight games since, they've averaged 106.8 points per game, down from 114.6 per game in the seven games with Murray to start the season.

While he hasn't yet made an All-Star Game, Murray was tracking that direction before the injury and is a perfect compliment to Nikola Jokic and the rest of Denver's roster.

The resulting drop has been significant as Cleaning the Glass ranks Denver's offense 26th in non-garbage time minutes in the past two weeks. The Nuggets are also the worst team by spread differential in that same stretch. The result has been unders in six of nine games without Murray, including going under on their team total in seven of their past eight.

Now, if the Nuggets were to handpick an opponent to get right against, it would be the Spurs. San Antonio is an incredibly young and inexperienced team that has the third-worst defense in the league both by points allowed and schedule-adjusted defensive rating.

However, their defense has actually been improving, slowly but surely. That ranking is up to 20th in the past two weeks (again, per Cleaning the Glass), but the offense has plummeted to 30th in that same stretch. As such, the Spurs have hit three straight unders after starting the season as an over wagon (11 of their first 13).

As for the side, I have a slight lean to the Spurs who, although they have dropped 11 straight, have covered two in a row. Denver, on the other hand, has failed to cover the spread in eight straight.

However, I much prefer the under, which I would take to 227.5. I also want to target the first quarter as both teams are in a busy part of the schedule thanks in part to the In-Season Tournament. These teams are a combined 22-10 to the under in the first quarter this season, so my favorite bet is the first quarter under. I would play to Under 58.5.

Picks: Under 229.5 (Play to 227.5) | 1Q Under (Play to 58.5)