Warriors Panic Meter Hits DEFCON 3: Why Golden State’s Dynasty Is Fading

Warriors Panic Meter: DEFCON 3

(From time to time, we’ll profile teams that are in trouble by using the DEFCON alert readiness system used by the United States armed forces. Today, it’s time to talk about the Warriors, who have been moved to DEFCON 3.)

There were warning signs about the Warriors early. When Golden State rattled off five wins in a row while Steph Curry continued being the best shooter to ever touch leather, it seemed like maybe this team was going to return to dominance. Steve Kerr crowed about last year’s road troubles being in the past, and the general consensus was that the Warriors were back to business as usual.

While those wins came against good opponents like the Kings, Pelicans and Rockets, with a little more time, those look more like wins against teams still finding their identities early in the season.

At 8-10, the Warriors aren’t out of things by any stretch of the imagination. However, those eight wins have come against six opponents: the Kings twice, the Rockets twice, the Thunder and Pels… and then the Pistons and Spurs. They haven’t won a road game against a team over .500 since November 3rd against the Thunder, nearly a month ago, and they only have one win overall against a team over .500 (the Rockets).

Then, on Wednesday, there was more bad news. Gary Payton II, whose defensive presence anchors the second unit, will be out indefinitely with a torn right calf. Chris Paul will also miss the next game with a nerve injury suffered in the loss to Sacramento on Monday.

The Warriors have outscored their opponents by four points per 100 possessions with GP2 on the court and have been outscored by 1.7 per 100 with him on the bench. They have outscored the other team by 4.4 points per 100 possessions with CP3 on the court and lost by 5.5 per 100 with him on the bench.

With neither of those two on the court, the Warriors have lost their minutes by 10.97 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, that’s worse than the overall Net Rating of 28 other teams — only the Spurs are worse. The Warriors have been “just a little better than the Spurs” when neither CP3 nor GP2 are on the floor.

But the problems don’t start or end there.

Andrew Wiggins' Slow Start

Andrew Wiggins is the most glaring issue. Wiggins is averaging career lows in points, assists, steals and blocks, nearly a career low in rebounds, and the third-lowest eFG% of his career, by far the worst since his trade to the Warriors.

Not only that, but the impact numbers are somehow worse. Golden State is losing by eight points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. They are winning the minutes without him by 10. That’s an 18-point swing. That is catastrophic.

Wiggins was lauded for his contributions to the 2022 title team, and rightly so. He made all the right plays and was an incredible defender. For whatever reason, since his prolonged absence due to a personal reason last season, he hasn’t been right.

However, there have been signs of life for Wiggins’ game: He had 29 points and 10 boards against the Kings on Monday and is averaging 19 points and five boards on 50-48-78 shooting. Maybe he just had a lousy first month of the season and can pull out of it.

But while Wiggins is easy to diagnose as underperforming, the deeper questions are more uncomfortable.

Klay Thompson on the Decline

Older players are always going to struggle with consistency. It’s an arc curve in the NBA. You come into the league raw and inconsistent. You score 20 one night and 10 the next. You play great defense one night, and you get lost the next. Then as you get older and get more reps, you refine and polish your game, and if you have the talent, you develop into a star who can contribute and produce every night consistently.

Then as you get older, injuries and age take that away. You have more 10-point nights than 20-point nights. You can still put up 30 every now and again, but that consistency is gone.

The consistency is vanishing with Klay Thompson quickly. Thompson is shooting 36% from 3 this season as a career 40% shooter and 40% from the field as a career 45% shooter overall. He also just looks slower, and his impact numbers reflect it.

Opponents are averaging 118 points per 100 possessions with Thompson on the court this season. In tracking data like Synergy, he grades out only 52nd percentile, which is fine, but far below his standard.

Uncharacteristic Starting 5 Struggles

Thompson, like Wiggins, will have better days ahead, but to compete for a title, the Warriors have to still have one of the best starting fives in basketball. Last season, they did. When Wiggins was available, the Warriors had the best starting five per Net Rating of any lineup that played 100 minutes together.

This season, of the 21 lineups to play 100 minutes together, that same starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney is dead last in Net Rating at -10.6.

If the Warriors can’t win their minutes with Curry and Green on the floor together, regardless of whom they share the floor with, the Warriors have no shot. And even if they improve, the question is, by how much?

Then there’s Green, who has always been the team’s emotional spark plug. You need conflict to spur competition, and Green has wandered over the line during the team’s title run before, most notably in 2016. But after his preseason punch of Jordan Poole sent shockwaves through the locker room that the team swore was the source of last year’s bad vibes, Green chirped even more than usual this preseason about things being better now.

Instead, he earned a five-game suspension for his altercation in the Warriors’ loss to the Timberwolves without Curry and, in his first game back against the Kings, nearly lost his cool again. It takes a lot for a guy who has four championships to elicit this kind of reaction from Kenny Smith:

HT: NBA Reddit

An aging superstar is acting out of control more and more. Another is trying to stay at an elite level after both ACL and Achilles surgeries at age 34. An inconsistent player once described as a bust looks more like the player he was before the trade that changed his career narrative. Injuries are mounting to the routinely injured players.

But through it all, there’s Curry. 30 points. Five rebounds. Four assists. Curry is attempting 12.1 3-pointers per game. That’s only been done three other times in NBA history: twice by James Harden and once by Curry in 2021. Curry is shooting 44% from 3 on those 12 attempts per game, a mind-boggling number.

And the Warriors are still losing his minutes. They are -9 in Curry’s 532 minutes this season.

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Now, we’re only at DEFCON 3 because Curry is doing this and is still this good, and the team did win four titles. Maybe they’ll figure it out. There are young guys showing promise, like Moses Moody, whom fans clamor to finish games, or rookies Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, who have the best on-court Net Ratings on the team.

As mentioned above, Golden State has played a brutal schedule, the third-toughest per DunksAndThrees.com. But easy wins against bad opponents won’t truly shape this team into what they want to be; it will only mask their problems.

There’s a long way to go. 80% of the season remains, but the dynasty’s golden gates appear tarnished, and the castle defenses look untrustworthy. Time is catching up with the Warriors, and the question this season is whether they can make one more desperate sprint before it drags them into history.