Round 1 of the FCS playoffs was electric, and we're in for another fun Saturday.
I've got three more spots circled for Saturday, including picks for South Dakota-Mercer, Illinois State-North Dakota State, and Yale-Montana State.
Let's dive into my FCS Playoffs picks and college football predictions for Saturday's FCS games on Saturday, Dec. 6.
South Dakota vs Mercer Pick
I like how the Yotes have been playing since their early-season loss against North Dakota State.
South Dakota has rattled off wins against North Dakota, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, and, most recently, Drake.
The ground game is strong behind LJ Phillips and his 1,688 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
South Dakota has been more physical in the trenches, and I expect the Yotes to run the ball well against Mercer.
The Bears have a strong defense, but the style of play in the SOCON is much different than that of the Missouri Valley Conference. Even against some of the stronger teams in the SOCON, Mercer gave up plenty of points and yards in close wins.
Mercer’s secondary is vulnerable, and after South Dakota gets the ground game going, I expect quarterback Aiden Bouman to take some deep shots on play-action to Larenzo Fenner, who’s averaging 22.5 yards per catch.
Mercer’s offense has been rolling since putting Braden Atkinson in at quarterback, as he’s lit up everyone he’s faced, throwing for 3,448 yards and 34 touchdowns.
The Bears have been the Southern Conference’s best offense, averaging over 500 yards and 40 points per game.
The key matchup here is Mercer’s offensive line facing off against South Dakota’s defensive front.
Mercer isn’t used to playing big defensive fronts, and I doubt it’ll hold up in this matchup.
The weather report also calls for heavy rain, which could inhibit Mercer’s passing attack and favor South Dakota’s rushing attack.
I think this game comes down to the wire, and I trust the Yotes to keep it close.
Pick: South Dakota +5.5 (-110, bet365)
Illinois State vs North Dakota State Pick
North Dakota State is the deserved favorite in the FCS playoffs, but the Bison haven’t been as dominant as in past years.
They played Illinois State earlier this season, and the Redbirds actually led 18-16 entering the fourth quarter before North Dakota State pieced together a 15-0 run.
The rematch should also be lower-scoring.
The Bison will pressure Illinois State quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse, making him uncomfortable in the pocket.
In the first meeting, Illinois State ran the ball well and converted on third downs, but I expect North Dakota State to make some key adjustments on defense.
North Dakota State had a few scores set up by Redbird turnovers, but Illinois State did a good job containing the ground attack. The Bison had only two rushes that went for more than 20 yards, and star receiver Bryce Lance had just three catches for 45 yards.
Illinois State should limit North Dakota State’s offense, keeping this game close in the fourth quarter.
Both offenses should operate at a slow and methodical pace, and explosive plays should be few and far between.
We have seen this total come down throughout the week, and I agree with the move.
Pick: Under 52.5 (-115, bet365)
Yale vs Montana State Pick
Yale had a fantastic come-from-behind win against Youngstown State last week, trailing 42-14 in the third quarter before coming back to win 43-42.
But Yale should've never been down four touchdowns.
The Bulldogs threw two interceptions, which set the Penguins up for quick touchdowns, and also fumbled inside the 10-yard line before half.
Yale wasn’t getting beaten that badly, but the score got out of hand until the Bulldogs rallied the troops and mounted an incredible comeback that will live in Ivy League lore.
Now the Bulldogs travel across the country to Big Sky country, where they take on Montana State.
The Bobcats are going to run the ball, as they have all season. Montana State has a solid one-two punch with Julius Davis and Adam Jones, who have combined to run for 1,580 yards with 17 touchdowns. Quarterback Justin Lamson actually has the most rushing attempts on the team, so you’ll see plenty of him as well.
Yale has a capable run-stopping unit that has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, and the pass rush should be able to pressure Lamson when he drops back to pass. The Bobcats have allowed 26 sacks and 50 tackles-for-loss this season, and Yale has several guys in the front seven who are capable of getting home.
Yale should deploy a rush-heavy attack with running back Josh Pitsenberger, who ran for 209 yards and three touchdowns last week. I expect Yale to have success on the ground in the first half, before the talent disparity takes over in the second half.
I also expect Yale to play keep-away, shortening the game.
Montana State’s defense is a decent unit, but the Bobcats also didn't play many tough opponents.
Montana State had one of the weaker schedule slates in the Big Sky, playing Idaho State, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, Weber State, and Eastern Washington before two closer wins against UC Davis and Montana.
I don’t think Yale wins the game outright. But I think the Bulldogs do enough to cover a big number.
Pick: Yale +28.5 (-110, bet365)
Other FCS Playoffs Predictions
- Lehigh 27, Villanova 21 (Lehigh -4.5)
- SFA 30, Abilene Christian 23 (SFA -4.5)
- Tarleton State 34, North Dakota 33 (North Dakota +4.5)
- Montana 30, South Dakota State 26 (Montana -3.5)
- Rhode Island 34, UC Davis 31 (Rhode Island +5.5)
