After spending upwards of five months staking out my plan of attack on Week 1 of the college football season, this week requires agile thinking and quick adjustments.
Teams are flying up and down my power rankings, from UMass’ shocking upset of Rutgers to Oklahoma State’s flat opener against Tulsa.
In between those surprising performances were a lot of gigantic mismatches, complete with FCS teams more than happy to lay down for a paycheck. That includes Towson, which was rolled by Navy, 42-14, in Week 1.
Now, it's time to fade the Midshipmen. Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 2.
College Football Predictions, Picks
Navy vs FAU Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| FAU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Navy hosted Towson in its season opener, dispatching the Tigers, 42-15, while rushing for 506 yards. This was the first time the Midshipmen ran for over 500 yards in nine years.
And while that's wildly impressive, it did come against a lowly FCS program. Towson hasn’t won an FCS Playoff game in 13 years and is 18-19 under current head coach Pete Shinnick. It was also gashed last year on the ground (82nd in FCS), so I’m not ready to anoint Navy as an unstoppable rushing machine.
Florida Atlantic went in the other direction in Week 1. Instead of paying a team to be a sacrificial lamb, it received $1.2 million to play the Florida Gators in The Swamp.
After putting up a fight for 1.5 quarters, the roof fell in on the Owls, resulting in a 45-point loss. So, how could I possibly advocate for them after they just gave up 66 points? A change of venue and a massive athletic downgrade.
The Owls went 4-2 against the spread at home last season and nearly upset nine-win UConn at Flagler Credit Union Stadium.
On paper, FAU was far more competitive than its 4-8 record indicated. The issue holding it back was turnovers. The Owls finished dead last in both giveaways and turnover margin (-21).
Those giveaways hid the fact that FAU boasted the nation’s best passing attack (340 YPG) and excellent special teams.
Navy’s defense may struggle to slow FAU down because its vulnerabilities are both related to pass defense.
Head coach Brian Newberry is replacing his pass rushers on both edges and two starters in his secondary. And this was a team that finished 91st in pass defense in 2025 while allowing 381 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to this very FAU team last fall.
Even lowly Towson completed 72% of its passes while beating Navy through the air for two touchdowns.
Then there's the talent drop-off from an SEC program like Florida to Navy.
It’s hard to overstate how different these rosters look. For example, Florida’s offense featured three blue-chip wide receivers and star running back Jadan Baugh, who struck the Heisman pose in the end zone on Saturday night.
It wasn’t outlandish, given the fact that Baugh rushed for 160 yards and three scores while catapulting into the Heisman race (T-4 among RBs at 200-1).
Navy is in the process of replacing Blake Horvath at quarterback and Eli Heidenreich at its “snipe” position, which is a hybrid slot back, running back and slot receiver all rolled into one.
Among qualifying quarterbacks, Horvath finished with the highest career passing efficiency by any service academy quarterback, including 1963 Heisman Trophy winner Roger Staubach.
Heidenreich just made the Pittsburgh Steelers' 53-man roster after dominating the American as a pass-catching weapon with 51 receptions for 941 yards and six touchdowns.
New quarterback Braxton Woodson is an excellent run-game triggerman for the millennial Wing-T in Annapolis, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a pure passer, evidenced by his sub-50% career accuracy mark and his yards-per-attempt average of 5.3.
This will also be the first time we get to find out if Navy has a true replacement for Heidenreich after playing six different backs in the opener.
Florida Atlantic will dominate the skies and force Navy into a position where it has to throw the football in this game. That’s where the Middies will deeply miss Horvath and Heidenreich.
Take advantage of the recency bias baked into this moneyline and grab the talented home 'dog.
Pick: FAU ML +180
