The UNC Tar Heels take on the UCF Knights in Orlando, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
UCF is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. North Carolina, meanwhile, is a +6.5 favorite and comes in at +210 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. UCF predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
UNC vs UCF Prediction
- UNC vs. UCF Pick: Under 47.5
My UCF vs. UNC best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UNC vs UCF Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- UNC vs UCF Spread: UCF -6.5, UNC +6.5
- UNC vs UCF Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- UNC vs UCF Moneyline: UNC +210, UCF -260
UNC vs UCF College Football Betting Preview
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: A Mess in Chapel Hill
A 48-14 drubbing at the hands of TCU was enough to quiet the narrative on North Carolina right out of the gate.
But since then, UNC beat Charlotte, 20-3, and Richmond, 41-7, in a pair of get-right games (and UNC even played Charlotte on the road!).
Though much-needed, those games were mere distractions from some looming absences on the roster. UNC is down to its third center after Austin Blaske and Christo Kelly went down with injuries.
Freshman Eidan Buchanan traded snaps with William Boone (the intended starter) at left tackle before Boone also suffered an injury in Week 3. In short, the offensive line is a mess.
Even if the line wasn't a mess, quarterback Gio Lopez has severely underperformed expectations. The South Alabama transfer went over two hours without a completion against TCU before sitting down due to the blowout in favor of Max Johnson.
In the following two games, Lopez didn't surpass 160 passing yards and was tagged for two turnover-worthy throws against Richmond, though neither caused an interception.
Defensively, the Heels played much better than the initial game indicated, though late downs have been a pain point.
But without the offense doing much — it has 13 drives of fewer than five plays through three games, including several three-and-outs against Charlotte and Richmond — the defense can't be expected to carry the entire load.
Quite frankly, the entirety of the Tar Heels under Bill Belichick have been a mess, even if the last two games resulted in victories.
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Sloppy Offense
Pot, meet kettle.
UCF covered its tracks with a resounding 68-7 win over North Carolina A&T before heading on bye in Week 3.
But Week 1 was a slopfest that featured an injury to UCF's starting quarterback, Cam Fancher. UCF was lucky to come away with a 17-10 win over Jacksonville State. (To be fair to both teams, that game was marred by weather delays.)
Heading into this Week 4 game, head coach Scott Frost has plenty of uncertainty at QB.
Tayven Jackson completed just 12-of-21 passes against an FCS bottom-feeder, but he did throw for 265 yards in the Jax State win. The 68-point avalanche came from over 350 rushing yards at 11.1 yards per clip. That'll be a tough performance to repeat this season.
Against FBS competition, UCF's offensive line wasn't very good. It lost the line of scrimmage battle and rushed for just over 100 yards. Against top-half defenses in the country, it's fair to question UCF's ability to move the ball.
Defensively, the Knights have played well given the opponents in front of them.
An 84-yard touchdown drive by Jax State in the fourth quarter of that game was about the only quality drive an opponent has put together against them, though data points are incomplete at this stage.
The secondary keeps things in front of them and, overall, the unit is fairly sound.
Eventually, an offense is likely to exploit this unit, but with North Carolina and Kansas State on deck, I'm not confident that time is now.
UNC vs UCF Pick, Betting Analysis
Few teams took as dramatic a movement from their opener as UCF did. The Knights opened as -3.5 favorites at home but grew to -6.5 by Wednesday afternoon.
It's unlikely we see -7, but UNC bettors have the luxury of patience to see if it does come around.
This is the third attempt at trying to get North Carolina and UCF on the same football field. A 2018 meeting was disrupted by a hurricane, while the 2020 follow-up was canceled due to COVID. So, here we are.
There's little confidence in the ability and expected performance of either team at this juncture. There's uncertainty in both quarterback rooms, and neither offense has looked very good against FBS competition.
Both offensive lines also have questions (whether due to injury or to performance), and both defenses have done a decent enough job at containing opposing offenses, especially when it comes to explosive plays.
Most of UCF's points against Jacksonville State came in the fourth quarter; until then, it was a 3-3 tie.
That sounds like an under to me! We're not alone, as the number dropped from an initial opener of 50.5.
UCF comes off a bye week and has the added benefit of playing at home. Does that time fix the offense? Given the personnel, I have my reservations.
But that does give the defense plenty of time to game plan for Lopez and the Tar Heels' offensive attack.
Pick: Under 47.5
