Friday closes out the regular season with a full 13-game MLB slate, and nearly every home run prop board carries real playoff stakes.
Kyle Schwarber's MLB-leading power surge, Yordan Alvarez's American League Triple Crown chase, and Shohei Ohtani's first game back from the injured list all headline tonight's action.
Here is a full breakdown of the best home run bets today, built around 13 live Polymarket tickets covering every game on the board.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Full Slate Breakdown
Each of these 13 tickets comes straight off a live Polymarket board, not a hypothetical line.
Every game below is sorted in the order first pitch actually happens tonight, so you can follow the slate from the early window through the late West Coast finale.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
Pittsburgh sits above .500 while Detroit continues to scuffle down the stretch, and the Pirates' most explosive bat draws a rookie right-hander tonight.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Oneil Cruz
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT vs DET (6:40 PM ET) | Oneil Cruz | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Cruz's exit velocities are consistently among the hardest in baseball, and an 18¢ Yes price against Detroit rookie right-hander Jobe (2-3, 3.98 ERA) undersells how much raw power he brings to every swing.
The $100 order shown fills right at that 18¢ level, working out to roughly 555 shares at a $1 payout each if the trade settles Yes.
- If Yes hits: profit of $525.61.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is better than 5-to-1 on the payout, a fair price for a hitter whose swing-and-miss rate keeps his home run odds from ever climbing much higher than this.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Tampa Bay's 96 wins lead the American League, but the marquee bat tonight belongs to Philadelphia, where Kyle Schwarber has turned this September into a home run chase for the ages.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Kyle Schwarber
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs PHI (6:40 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (26¢) | $365.80 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the trade we're making tonight.
Schwarber leads all of MLB in home runs this season and has been on an absurd run in September, homering in four of five games during one recent stretch.
He carries the highest Yes price on this entire slate at 26¢, and against a Tampa Bay pitching staff that has to face him with a division race still on the line, that number still looks light.
Detroit and the rest of the league have not solved Schwarber's bat all year, and there is no reason to expect Tampa Bay does it in the season's final full week.
The $100 buy fills at 26¢, for right around 385 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes.
- If Yes hits: profit of $365.80.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A payout north of 3.5-to-1 is a fair price for the sport's most prolific power hitter of the year, without pretending a home run is ever a certainty on any single night.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Neither club is playing for October, but Juan Soto's bat is still must-watch every time he steps in against a Nationals staff he faced for years as a division rival.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Juan Soto
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM vs WSH (6:45 PM ET) | Juan Soto | HR Yes (16¢) | $590.50 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Soto's approach is built on walks and damage on contact more than pure home run frequency, which is exactly why the board only has him at 16¢ against Washington left-hander Alvarez (2-6, 3.17 ERA).
At $100 on a 16¢ average price, that is roughly 625 shares purchased for tonight's trade.
- If Yes hits: profit of $590.50.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Nearly 6-to-1 on one of the sport's most patient hitters is a reasonable price for a game with little else on the line for either side.
Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
Toronto and Cincinnati are both hovering in the high 70s in the win column, and George Springer's power gives the Blue Jays a real edge against a Reds rotation piece still finding his footing.
Best Home Run Prop Today – George Springer
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN vs TOR (7:07 PM ET) | George Springer | HR Yes (15¢) | $629.46 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Springer draws Reds left-hander Lodolo (3-6, 5.04 ERA) tonight, and a right-handed veteran power bat against a struggling southpaw is exactly the kind of matchup that tends to underprice at 15¢.
The $100 stake works out to roughly 667 shares at that price point.
- If Yes hits: profit of $629.46.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A payout better than 6-to-1 is generous for a hitter still capable of turning a mistake pitch into a souvenir on any given night.
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Atlanta has already clinched its playoff spot and can play loose, while Matt Olson keeps producing against a Miami staff that is closing out a lost season.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Matt Olson
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs MIA (7:10 PM ET) | Matt Olson | HR Yes (21¢) | $451.42 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Olson has been one of the steadiest power sources in the league all year, and a 21¢ Yes price against Miami right-hander Pérez (7-11, 4.14 ERA) reflects a professional hitter who does not need extra motivation with the division already wrapped up.
A $100 order at 21¢ buys close to 476 shares for tonight's game.
- If Yes hits: profit of $451.42.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is better than 4.5-to-1 on a hitter who has been remarkably consistent all season long.
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction
Cleveland is still fighting Chicago for the division, and Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. remains the one Royals bat capable of flipping a game on one swing against a hot Guardians rotation arm.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Bobby Witt Jr.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE vs KC (7:40 PM ET) | Bobby Witt Jr. | HR Yes (15.96¢) | $592.06 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Witt's game leans more on speed and contact than pure over-the-fence power, which keeps this price down against Cleveland right-hander Williams (14-8, 3.63 ERA) even though he is capable of turning any pitch into extra bases.
The $100 order fills at an average price of 15.96¢, good for roughly 627 shares.
- If Yes hits: profit of $592.06.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Almost 6-to-1 is fair value against a quality Cleveland arm still pitching with a division race at stake.
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Prediction
Colorado has lost more than 100 games, and Munetaka Murakami's rookie power surge against a soft Rockies rotation piece is one of the more interesting bets on the board tonight.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Munetaka Murakami
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL vs CHW (7:40 PM ET) | Munetaka Murakami | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Murakami has already piled up 32 home runs in his rookie season despite a low batting average, and his raw power has cooled recently but never really gone away against a Colorado staff surrendering runs at one of the league's worst rates.
A $100 buy at 19¢ works out to roughly 526 shares for tonight's trade.
- If Yes hits: profit of $498.26.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A payout close to 5-to-1 is a fair number for a hitter who has already shown he can do serious damage in his first MLB season.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee's 100 wins are the best record in baseball, and Alec Burleson's power has to work against one of the league's deepest pitching staffs tonight.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Alec Burleson
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL vs MIL (7:40 PM ET) | Alec Burleson | HR Yes (13¢) | $725.38 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Burleson has emerged as a legitimate power threat in St. Louis's lineup, but the 13¢ price against Milwaukee left-hander Gasser (5-5, 4.01 ERA) reflects just how tough this Brewers pitching staff has been all season.
A $100 order at 13¢ buys close to 769 shares.
- If Yes hits: profit of $725.38.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
More than 7-to-1 is the richest payout on the entire slate tonight, a fair reflection of just how difficult Milwaukee's pitching has made things for opposing lineups all year.
Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Texas is tied at the top of the American League West race, and Corey Seager's bat is the single biggest reason the Rangers are still very much alive.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Corey Seager
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX vs MIN (8:10 PM ET) | Corey Seager | HR Yes (18.41¢) | $514.05 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Seager remains one of the most dangerous left-handed bats in the sport, and an 18.41¢ average price against Minnesota right-hander Ryan (6-10, 3.83 ERA) is a fair number with the Rangers still fighting for a division title in the final week.
A $100 order at that average price buys roughly 543 shares tonight.
- If Yes hits: profit of $514.05.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 5-to-1 is reasonable value on a proven postseason performer with real motivation left on the table.
Houston Astros vs Athletics Prediction
Houston is tied atop the American League West, and Yordan Alvarez's chase for the first Triple Crown since 2012 gives this matchup against a fading Athletics club real juice.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU vs ATH (9:40 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (25¢) | $380.20 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the other trade we're making tonight.
Alvarez has already reached 41 home runs and is leading the American League in batting average, home runs, and RBI at the same time, putting him in real position to chase down a Triple Crown.
He draws Athletics left-hander Lopez (6-5, 5.68 ERA) tonight, one of the softer matchups on the entire board, and the 25¢ Yes price still looks light given how hot his bat has been.
Houston needs every game right now to hold off Texas, and Alvarez has been the single biggest reason the Astros are still tied for first place.
The $100 buy fills at 25¢, or roughly 400 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution.
- If Yes hits: profit of $380.20.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A payout of nearly 4-to-1 on a hitter chasing the Triple Crown against one of the league's most hittable arms is one of the sharper prices on this entire slate.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego is fighting to secure its playoff position, and Fernando Tatis Jr.'s power gives the Padres a real edge against a solid Arizona right-hander.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Fernando Tatis Jr.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs SD (9:40 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (19.77¢) | $479.20 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Tatis remains one of the most explosive right-handed bats in the sport, and a 19.77¢ average price against Arizona's Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA) is a solid number given how much San Diego needs this game down the stretch.
A $100 order at that average price buys roughly 506 shares tonight.
- If Yes hits: profit of $479.20.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Nearly 5-to-1 is fair value on a superstar bat with the Padres pushing hard for playoff position.
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
Seattle is fighting for a playoff spot in its final week, and Randy Arozarena has been the single hottest bat in the Mariners lineup all September.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Randy Arozarena
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAA vs SEA (10:10 PM ET) | Randy Arozarena | HR Yes (16¢) | $590.50 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Arozarena entered this week hitting nearly .300 over his last dozen games with multiple multi-homer performances mixed in, and the 16¢ Yes price against Angels left-hander Detmers (6-8, 3.47 ERA) looks light given how locked in he currently is at the plate.
A $100 buy at 16¢ works out to roughly 625 shares.
- If Yes hits: profit of $590.50.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Nearly 6-to-1 is a strong number on a hitter who has been arguably the best bat in baseball over the past two weeks.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction
Los Angeles has already secured 97 wins, and tonight marks Shohei Ohtani's return from the injured list against a Giants club with nothing left to play for.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Shohei Ohtani
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD vs SF (10:15 PM ET) | Shohei Ohtani | HR Yes (25¢) | $380.20 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Ohtani was reinstated from the injured list this week and picked up a hit in his first at-bat back, and the 25¢ Yes price against Giants right-hander Marte (0-1, 4.66 ERA) reflects some understandable caution around his timing after time off.
A $100 order at 25¢ buys roughly 400 shares for tonight's game.
- If Yes hits: profit of $380.20.
- If No hits: the stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Nearly 4-to-1 is a fair price on a hitter capable of erasing any rust with one swing, even fresh off the injured list.
Beyond these 13 games, Polymarket's sports board carries additional MLB contracts and props running throughout the night for traders looking for more action.
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Friday's MLB Predictions: Final Thoughts
Tonight's slate is stacked with genuine stakes, from Milwaukee's league-best pitching staff to a three-way American League West race that touches both the Rangers and Astros games above.
Schwarber's home run pace and Alvarez's Triple Crown pursuit are the two storylines worth following most closely, but Arozarena's hot streak and Murakami's rookie power make for compelling secondary plays.
Our MLB predictions above lean on the board's own pricing rather than gut feel, and that pricing tends to move fast once first pitch hits in each of these 13 games.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code today?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10 to get started.
What are the best home run bets today across the full MLB slate?
Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani carry the highest Yes prices on the board at 26¢ and 25¢, with Yordan Alvarez and Randy Arozarena close behind given their current hot streaks at the plate.
Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Kyle Schwarber holds the highest implied probability on the entire slate at 26%, reflecting his MLB-leading home run total and a torrid September in Philadelphia.
Is Munetaka Murakami a good home run bet tonight?
Murakami's rookie season has already produced 32 home runs, and at a 19¢ Yes price against a struggling Colorado pitching staff, he stands out as one of the more interesting value plays on the board.
What is the editor's top pick for today's MLB home run predictions?
Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez are the two flagship picks tonight, tied to Schwarber's league-leading power surge and Alvarez's American League Triple Crown chase.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract pays $1 per share if the named player hits at least one home run in that specific game, and $0 per share if he does not, with the market settling all-or-nothing at the final out.
When do these home run markets resolve?
Every contract above resolves at the conclusion of its respective game tonight, once the final out is recorded.
How do I claim the Polymarket promo code?
Sign up through the link on this page, make a qualifying $10 deposit, and the ACTION promo code applies the $50 trading bonus automatically to a new account.
