Best NFL Player Props Today | Best NFL Prop Bets Today: First TD, Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Picks (Week 4)

Week 4 of the NFL season rolls out a 13-game Sunday slate, and our best NFL prop bets today round up the sharpest first TD scorer and anytime TD scorer prediction picks straight from the live Polymarket board.

• This week's board leans heavily on touchdown markets, with nine of our 13 picks tied to anytime or first TD scorer prediction props rather than straight yardage thresholds.
• Several of tonight's teams are dealing with a quarterback change or a season-long losing streak, which pushes a handful of these prices into true longshot territory.

Here is our full picks table for the best NFL player props today before we break down every game on the board, one matchup at a time.

Best NFL Player Props Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for the Week 4 Slate

Every pick below is a real trade we'd make after redeeming the Polymarket promo code, part of our best NFL prop bets today across the full Week 4 board.

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With 13 games on the board, we're going matchup by matchup below, pulling one anytime TD scorer prediction, first TD scorer prediction, or yardage prop from each game we're trading today.

Cardinals vs Giants Prediction

Arizona is 1-2 but found its offense in Week 3, debuting third-overall pick Jeremiyah Love with 21 carries and five catches in a near-30-point outing.

New York is 2-1 but absorbed a season-altering blow when Jaxson Dart (knee) went down for the year, handing the offense to Jacoby Brissett.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Today – Malik Nabers

Even with a new quarterback under center, Malik Nabers remains New York's unquestioned No. 1 target, and that volume alone keeps him live for this anytime TD scorer prediction.

Arizona's defense has been middle of the pack through three weeks, and a shorthanded Giants offense will likely lean even harder on getting its best receiver the ball in scoring range to manufacture points.

At a $100 buy near 30 cents, this trade works out to roughly 333 shares, with Polymarket's stated payout at $317.86.

• If Nabers scores a touchdown: profit of $317.86.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A near coin-flip number on paper, but the payout still more than triples your stake.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

Buffalo is the only unbeaten team in the AFC East at 3-0, with James Cook III piling up 154 rushing yards at 6.4 a carry in Week 3.

New England owns one of the league's least productive passing offenses early on, which should keep Buffalo's offense on the field often and Josh Allen hunting touchdowns in bunches.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Today – Josh Allen

Josh Allen has been the engine behind Buffalo's 3-0 start regardless of how the ground game performs, and he's a threat to score with his legs as much as his arm.

New England's defense has had its moments, but a patchwork passing attack of its own means Buffalo could be forced to lean on Allen's touchdown equity to pull away in the second half.

At 18 cents, a $100 buy is good for roughly 556 shares, with a stated payout of $525.60.

• If Allen scores two or more touchdowns: profit of $525.60.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A true longshot number, but the payout here is more than 5x your stake.

Jets vs Bears Prediction

Chicago is 2-1 with Ben Johnson's offense clicking behind veteran Case Keenum, who threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns while Caleb Williams sat out Week 3.

New York is 1-2 and leans on Garrett Wilson as its clear top target, which leaves plenty of longshot equity on the board for a depth piece like Kalif Raymond to find the opening score.

Best First TD Scorer Prediction Today – Kalif Raymond

Kalif Raymond has carved out a role as a change-of-pace piece in New York's passing game, and a single early target in scoring range is all it takes to cash this first TD scorer prediction.

Chicago's defense was dialed in against Philadelphia last week, but this field stays wide open on any given snap since only one player can score first.

At 6.27 cents, a $100 buy is roughly 1,595 shares, with a stated payout of $1,496.30.

• If Raymond scores the game's first touchdown: profit of $1,496.30.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A true longshot pick, but the payout here is nearly 24x your stake.

Cowboys vs Texans Prediction

Dallas is 1-2 but CeeDee Lamb is fully healthy and productive, posting seven catches for 112 yards in Week 3.

Houston is a winless 0-3 and hasn't topped 20 points since Week 1, a rough sign for a pass rush trying to slow down Dallas' top target near the goal line.

Best First TD Scorer Prediction Today – CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb leads a Dallas passing game that has produced points all season, and Houston's offense struggling to stay on schedule means more possessions for Dak Prescott to work with.

Lamb's size and target share give him a real shot at the opening score against a Texans secondary that has yet to face a receiver this productive this season.

At 10 cents, $100 buys exactly 1,000 shares, with a stated payout of $941.10.

• If Lamb scores the game's first touchdown: profit of $941.10.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A deep longshot, but the payout here runs well over 9x your stake.

Rams vs Eagles Prediction

Puka Nacua has missed the last two games with a groin injury, and head coach Sean McVay says he's hopeful his star receiver can return for this one.

If Nacua is active against Philadelphia, his volume alone makes him a live threat to find the end zone early, even working back from a missed practice week.

Best First TD Scorer Prediction Today – Puka Nacua

Nacua was the Rams' clear top target before the groin injury cost him two games, and Los Angeles has every reason to feed him early snaps if he's cleared to suit up.

Philadelphia's defense has been stout, but a receiver this talented returning from injury still carries real touchdown equity on a limited early workload.

At 11.03 cents, a $100 buy is roughly 907 shares, with a stated payout of $853.50.

• If Nacua scores the game's first touchdown: profit of $853.50.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A true longshot given the uncertainty around his workload, but the payout here is nearly 9x your stake.

Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction

Tampa Bay is 0-3 and adjusting to a quarterback change after Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb in Week 3, handing the offense to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels.

Bucky Irving has rushed for 180 yards and a touchdown through three games and remains one of the few steady pieces of that offense regardless of who's throwing him the ball.

Best Rushing Yards Prop Today – Bucky Irving 60+ Yards

With a rookie quarterback making his first career start, Tampa Bay should lean heavily on the ground game to keep the offense simple, and Irving is the clear workhorse in that plan.

Green Bay's run defense has been solid but not dominant through the early slate, leaving room for Irving to clear this number if the volume shows up as expected.

At 43 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 233 shares, with a stated payout of $223.69.

• If Irving clears 60 rushing yards: profit of $223.69.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A near coin-flip number that still pays back more than double your stake.

Titans vs Ravens Prediction

Tennessee is 0-3, while Lamar Jackson and Baltimore have been one of the league's more efficient offenses, with Jackson completing 15 of 20 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3 at a 136.7 rating.

That kind of efficiency gives Jackson a real path to clearing 225 yards through the air against a Titans defense still searching for answers.

Best Passing Yards Prop Today – Lamar Jackson 225+ Yards

Jackson's efficiency has been the story of Baltimore's season so far, and a winless Tennessee defense gives him every reason to push the ball downfield early and often.

Baltimore's offense ranks near the top of the league in first-half scoring, which should mean a healthy number of dropbacks for Jackson before any potential second-half game script shift.

At 43 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 233 shares, with a stated payout of $223.69.

• If Jackson clears 225 passing yards: profit of $223.69.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A near coin-flip price that still pays back more than double your stake.

Jaguars vs Bengals Prediction

Both Jacksonville and Cincinnati sit at 2-1, and Trevor Lawrence has quietly been one of the better quarterbacks in football early this season.

Lawrence has thrown seven touchdowns to just two interceptions, including a three-score outing in a blowout win over New England last time out.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Today – Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence's passing touchdown rate this season gives him a real path to an anytime TD scorer prediction, whether through the air or on a quarterback sneak near the goal line.

Cincinnati's defense regressed last week, allowing Aaron Rodgers to carve it up for three scores, which bodes well for Lawrence's production in this spot.

At 21 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 476 shares, with a stated payout of $451.42.

• If Lawrence scores a touchdown: profit of $451.42.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A longer-shot number, but the payout here runs more than 4.5x your stake.

Chargers vs Seahawks Prediction

Ladd McConkey is finally playing a full workload after battling a rib injury, running a team-high route share in Week 3 against Buffalo.

A trip to Seattle in the late window is a tough early test for that workload to translate into a 50-yard receiving day, but his target share keeps him squarely in range.

Best Receiving Yards Prop Today – Ladd McConkey 50+ Yards

McConkey led Los Angeles in routes run last week after working his way back from the rib injury that limited him early in the season, which is a strong signal for his usage going forward.

Seattle's secondary is a step up in competition, but McConkey only needs a couple of explosive plays to clear this number given how often Justin Herbert is targeting him.

At 48 cents, $100 buys roughly 208 shares, with a stated payout of $201.06.

• If McConkey clears 50 receiving yards: profit of $201.06.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

Essentially a coin-flip price that still pays back double your stake.

Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction

Minnesota is 3-0 behind one of the league's most disruptive defenses, while Miami is 0-3 and still searching for its first sack of the season.

Kyler Murray, now in his second start for the Vikings after arriving from Arizona, threw for 168 yards and a touchdown last time out, giving him some sneak equity against a Miami front that has struggled to generate pressure.

Best First TD Scorer Prediction Today – Kyler Murray

Murray's rushing ability gives him a path to the end zone that most quarterbacks don't carry, especially on short-yardage sneaks near the goal line.

Miami's defense has not recorded a sack through three games, a sign that the Dolphins' front has struggled to disrupt opposing offenses all season long.

At 7.96 cents, a $100 buy is roughly 1,256 shares, with a stated payout of $1,180.10.

• If Murray scores the game's first touchdown: profit of $1,180.10.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

An extreme longshot, but the payout here runs nearly 12x your stake.

Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction

This is the only Week 4 matchup between two unbeaten teams, with Kansas City and Las Vegas both sitting at 3-0 entering the late afternoon window.

Travis Kelce remains a focal point of Kansas City's offense in the red zone, and a 50-yard receiving day is well within his range against a divisional opponent.

Best Receiving Yards Prop Today – Travis Kelce 50+ Yards

Kelce remains one of Kansas City's most trusted targets in the short and intermediate passing game, and that volume keeps him live for this number nearly every week.

Las Vegas has forced takeaways early this season, but their coverage linebackers still match up as a favorable matchup for a tight end with Kelce's route-running ability.

At 47 cents, $100 buys roughly 213 shares, with a stated payout of $205.20.

• If Kelce clears 50 receiving yards: profit of $205.20.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A near coin-flip price that still pays back more than double your stake.

Broncos vs 49ers Prediction

Deebo Samuel Sr. is back with San Francisco on a one-year deal after returning to the franchise this offseason, and he opened the year with a touchdown in Week 1 against the Rams.

San Francisco's receiver room is still filling in around injuries, which keeps Samuel's snap share high even as a part-time weapon in Kyle Shanahan's scheme.

Best First TD Scorer Prediction Today – Deebo Samuel Sr.

Samuel's versatility in Shanahan's scheme, lining up out of the slot and occasionally in the backfield, gives him more paths to the end zone than a traditional outside receiver.

Denver's defense has been stout early in the season, but Samuel already has a touchdown on his resume this year and remains a live red-zone option behind Mike Evans.

At 9 cents, $100 buys roughly 1,111 shares, with a stated payout of $1,045.00.

• If Samuel scores the game's first touchdown: profit of $1,045.00.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A true longshot, but the payout here runs more than 10x your stake.

Lions vs Panthers Prediction

Detroit arrives at 2-1 behind one of the league's more efficient red-zone offenses, while Carolina is 1-2 and making its first home Sunday Night Football appearance in a decade.

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the focal point of that passing game regardless of script, and Carolina's shorthanded secondary gives him a path to find the end zone early.

Best First TD Scorer Prediction Today – Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown remains Detroit's clear No. 1 target and the focal point of the passing game regardless of game script, which makes him a threat to score early in any Lions drive.

Carolina's secondary has taken real hits this year, and with the Panthers already shorthanded on defense, St. Brown projects for a heavy target share in this primetime window.

At 12 cents, $100 buys roughly 833 shares, with a stated payout of $785.30.

• If St. Brown scores the game's first touchdown: profit of $785.30.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A true longshot, but the payout here runs more than 6.5x your stake.

What's Moving the Market

Prediction markets and prices can move for several reasons across a 13-game slate like this one.

This week, our best NFL player props today lean heavily on teams going through quarterback changes, with Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and the Giants all trading on backup or newly arrived signal-callers.

That volatility is exactly why so many of our first TD scorer prediction and anytime TD scorer prediction picks carry longshot prices this week, as the market hasn't fully settled on how these new-look offenses will distribute touchdowns.

Elsewhere, unbeaten teams like Buffalo, Minnesota, and the Chiefs-Raiders pairing continue to command shorter prices across the board, a sign the market still trusts last week's form heading into Week 4.

How to Trade These Picks on Polymarket

Ready to get in on these best NFL prop bets today yourself? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading tonight's full Week 4 board:

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
• When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!

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Final Thoughts: Best NFL Prop Bets Today

A 13-game Sunday slate means no shortage of angles, and our best NFL player props today span everything from Josh Allen's touchdown equity in an unbeaten Buffalo offense to true longshot first TD scorer prediction plays on receivers working back from injury.

The quarterback carousel around the league this week, from Tampa Bay to Minnesota to the Giants, is exactly what's pushing so many of these anytime TD scorer prediction and first TD scorer prediction prices into double-digit payout territory.

That wraps our full breakdown of every best NFL prop bets today pick we'd make across the Week 4 Polymarket board.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today FAQs

What is the Polymarket promo code for this week's NFL player props?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with it can claim a trading bonus to use on any of this week's Week 4 markets.

What are the best NFL player props today for Week 4?

Our top plays this week lean on Ladd McConkey and Travis Kelce's receiving floors, Bucky Irving and Lamar Jackson's yardage numbers, and a handful of longshot first TD scorer prediction picks across the slate.

What is the best anytime TD scorer prediction for Week 4?

Malik Nabers sits atop our anytime TD scorer prediction board at 30%, with Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen also in play as quarterback touchdown picks.

What is the best first TD scorer prediction for Week 4?

Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb carry the shortest prices among our first TD scorer prediction picks this week, both backed by clear target-share advantages for their offenses.

Which Week 4 game features two unbeaten teams?

Chiefs vs. Raiders is the only Week 4 matchup between two 3-0 teams, with both sides entering the late afternoon window unbeaten.

How do Polymarket touchdown scorer contracts work?

Each contract resolves Yes if the named player scores the specified touchdown type in that game, and No if they don't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.

When do these Week 4 prop markets resolve?

Each contract resolves once its specific game is final, based on official NFL box score data for that matchup.

How do I use promo code ACTION on Polymarket?

Create an account, deposit the minimum required amount, and enter code ACTION to unlock a trading bonus before Sunday's games kick off.