Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 2 with the Bills vs. Lions, a matchup that features some obvious best NFL prop bets today.
We've built out the best NFL prop bets today across this Bills vs Lions prediction, from the Money Line down to the deepest touchdown-scorer market on the board.
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III 1+ Touchdowns | Yes | 55¢ | $76.30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jared Goff 2+ Passing Touchdowns | Yes | 54¢ | $79.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ Receiving Yards | Yes | 51¢ | $89.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 90+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 49¢ | $97.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jared Goff 300+ Passing Yards | Yes | 27¢ | $252.71 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Josh Allen 2+ Touchdowns | Yes | 16¢ | $490.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Josh Allen First Touchdown | Yes | 12¢ | $685.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown First Touchdown | Yes | 9¢ | $945.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Dalton Kincaid First Touchdown | Yes | 7¢ | $1,241.80 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| DJ Moore 2+ Touchdowns | Yes | 7¢ | $1,241.80 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Best NFL Player Props for Bills vs. Lions Prediction Markets: TNF Best Bets
This is the first regular-season game at Buffalo's new Highmark Stadium, and the Bills are 5.5-point favorites in a matchup between two of the league's highest-scoring offenses over the last two seasons.
- Buffalo is 1-0 after a wild 36-31 comeback win at Houston, with Josh Allen throwing for 334 yards and two scores while adding two more on the ground.
- Detroit is also 1-0, needing overtime to hold off New Orleans 31-30 behind Jared Goff's efficient outing and Jahmyr Gibbs' 156-yard, two-touchdown workload.
This is shaping up as one of the more layered TNF best bets slates of the young season.
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We're putting real money on ten contracts tonight, ranked from most to least likely to cash, including five true longshot swings we've added to round out the board.
These are the best NFL player props on the board once you weigh price against how both offenses looked in their season openers.
Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – James Cook III
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook III TD: Yes | 55¢ | $76.30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
We're buying Cook to find the end zone at 55¢, the safest of our ten plays on this Bills vs Lions prediction.
Cook ripped off 115 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in Buffalo's Week 1 win at Houston, firmly holding the bellcow role in Joe Brady's new offense.
Detroit's defense generated five sacks and three takeaways against New Orleans, but it still allowed 30 points, a sign the front is aggressive without yet being airtight against a full-season workload back.
Cook gets goal-line touches on early downs and in two-minute situations alike, which is exactly the kind of touchdown equity that clears 50-50 odds.
Here's the ticket mechanics: a $100 buy at an average price of 55¢ gets us roughly 182 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), each worth $1 on a winning resolution, though Polymarket's board lists our actual To Win figure at $176.30 rather than the full $181.82.
That small gap between the share math and the platform's stated payout is normal, it reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error, and we won't re-explain it on every pick below.
Worth flagging: the board price on this contract sits at 56% at the time of writing, a cent tighter than our 55¢ fill, since a $100 order is large enough to nudge the price slightly on a thinner market.
- If Cook scores any touchdown: we cash $176.30, a profit of $76.30 on our $100 stake.
- If he doesn't find the end zone: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At better than even-money on a workhorse back who already found paydirt in Week 1, this is our highest-floor play of the night.
Best Passing Touchdowns Pick Today – Jared Goff
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff 2+ Passing TDs: Yes | 54¢ | $79.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Goff threw for 206 yards and two touchdowns on 26-of-39 passing in the opener, and he did it despite a Detroit offense that stalled a few times in the red zone before finishing the job in overtime.
Buffalo's defense allowed 31 points to Houston in Week 1, and this secondary hasn't faced a passing attack with Goff's combination of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta all healthy at once.
A $100 buy at 54¢ gets roughly 185 shares, with Polymarket's board listing our To Win figure at $179.44.
- If Goff throws for two or more touchdowns: we cash $179.44, a profit of $79.44.
- If he falls short: the $100 stake is gone.
Just past a coin flip with multiple paths to two scores, this is a value add-on rather than a stake-heavy anchor.
Best Receiving Yards Pick Today – Amon-Ra St. Brown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ Rec Yards: Yes | 51¢ | $89.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
St. Brown caught 10 of his targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, a workload built on volume rather than one explosive gain.
That target share is the whole case here, 10 looks in a single game means 80 yards is well within reach even without a single deep shot connecting.
Buffalo's defense is coming off a shootout and hasn't been tested against a true high-volume slot/perimeter hybrid like St. Brown yet this season.
A $100 buy at 51¢ gets roughly 196 shares, with the board listing our To Win figure at $189.62.
- If St. Brown clears 80 receiving yards: we cash $189.62, a profit of $89.62.
- If he falls short: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
A near coin-flip price on the league's most heavily targeted receiver through one week is a number we're comfortable taking.
Best Rushing Yards Pick Today – Jahmyr Gibbs
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs 90+ Rush Yards: Yes | 49¢ | $97.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Gibbs carried 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans, a workload that leaves this 90-yard number looking soft even against a tougher opponent.
Buffalo's front held up well in a shootout win, but it hasn't faced anything close to a 29-carry workload from a back this explosive, and Detroit has every incentive to lean on Gibbs again to control the clock on the road.
A $100 buy at 49¢ gets roughly 204 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $197.10.
- If Gibbs clears 90 rushing yards: we cash $197.10, a profit of $97.10.
- If he falls short: the $100 stake is lost.
Just under even money on a back who already cleared this number by 66 yards in Week 1 is exactly the kind of value we look for in these NFL prop bets today.
Best Passing Yards Prop Today – Jared Goff
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff 300+ Passing Yards: Yes | 27¢ | $252.71 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Goff's 206-yard, two-touchdown Week 1 was efficient rather than explosive, since Detroit controlled the clock behind Gibbs' 156-yard rushing day and rarely needed to push the ball downfield.
If Buffalo's defense forces more passing volume this time around, after allowing 470 total yards to Houston, Goff has St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta all available to climb well past his Week 1 total.
Clearing 300 yards on top of that still requires a genuinely pass-heavy script, which is why this sits as a true longshot relative to our other picks.
A $100 buy at 27¢ gets roughly 371 shares, with Polymarket's board listing our To Win figure at $352.71.
- If Goff throws for 300 or more passing yards: we cash $352.71, a profit of $252.71.
- If he falls short: the $100 stake is lost.
Better than 3.5x on our stake if Detroit is forced into obvious passing situations, this is a script-dependent longshot rather than a bet on Goff repeating his own Week 1 number.
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Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – Josh Allen
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen 2+ TD: Yes | 16¢ | $490.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
This market only counts touchdowns Allen scores himself, rushing or receiving, not the ones he throws, and he already delivered exactly this outcome in Week 1 with two rushing scores against Houston.
Joe Brady leaned on designed quarterback runs near the goal line once already, and Detroit's front just allowed Gibbs to go for 156 yards and two scores on the ground, so nothing about this matchup shuts that package off.
Repeating a two-rushing-touchdown week is still an unusual outcome for any quarterback, which keeps this priced as a true longshot even with the precedent already on tape.
A $100 buy at 16¢ gets roughly 625 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $590.50.
- If Allen scores two or more non-passing touchdowns: we cash $590.50, a profit of $490.50.
- If he scores one or none: the $100 stake is lost.
Nearly 5.9x on our stake for a repeat of a performance Allen already turned in once this season, this is a boom-or-bust swing worth a small stake.
Best First TD Scorer Pick Today – Josh Allen
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen First TD: Yes | 12¢ | $685.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Allen scored twice on the ground in Buffalo's comeback win, including the go-ahead score late, and Joe Brady has shown he's willing to call quarterback runs near the goal line to establish tempo.
With the Bills debuting Highmark Stadium in front of their own crowd, an early scripted red-zone run for Allen isn't out of the question, even with James Cook and a deep receiving corps also live for the game's first score.
A $100 buy at 12¢ gets roughly 833 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $785.33.
- If Allen scores the game's first touchdown: we cash $785.33, a profit of $685.33.
- If anyone else scores first, or if no touchdown is scored before Allen's: the $100 stake is lost.
More than 7.8x on our stake for a true lottery-ticket outcome, this remains one of our smallest-confidence, highest-payout swings of the night.
Best First TD Scorer Prop Today – Amon-Ra St. Brown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown First TD: Yes | 9¢ | $945.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
St. Brown already found the end zone twice in Week 1, both through the air, so he's clearly part of Detroit's plan near the goal line from the opening series onward.
Being the very first score of the game specifically is a much narrower bar than scoring at any point, especially with Gibbs, Kincaid, and DJ Moore all mixed into Detroit and Buffalo's early-game looks too.
A $100 buy at 9¢ gets roughly 1,111 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $1,045.00.
- If St. Brown scores the game's first touchdown: we cash $1,045.00, a profit of $945.00.
- If anyone else scores first, or if no touchdown is scored before his: the $100 stake is lost.
More than 9.4x on our stake, this is a true lottery-ticket swing on a player who's already proven he finds the end zone against this defense.
Best First TD Scorer Prop Today – Dalton Kincaid
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid First TD: Yes | 7¢ | $1,241.80 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Kincaid caught five of six targets for 130 yards in Week 1, including three plays of 20-plus yards, clearly a featured part of Buffalo's game plan from the opening series.
An early seam shot to Kincaid for a score is a live outcome if Buffalo scripts a shot play to open its new stadium, though he's still competing with Cook and Shakir for the game's very first look.
A $100 buy at 7¢ gets roughly 1,429 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $1,341.80.
- If Kincaid scores the game's first touchdown: we cash $1,341.80, a profit of $1,241.80.
- If anyone else scores first, or if no touchdown is scored before his: the $100 stake is lost.
More than 13x on our stake, this is one of the deepest longshots on our board, built entirely on Kincaid's explosive Week 1 role rather than any expectation he's the likeliest scorer.
Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – DJ Moore
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore 2+ TD: Yes | 7¢ | $1,241.80 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Moore projects as Detroit's field-stretching complement to St. Brown rather than the offense's primary red-zone target, so multi-touchdown games are rare for his role even in a productive week.
Buffalo's defense conceded 31 points and 470 total yards in Week 1, and if the Lions get into a track meet, Moore's big-play ability gives him a real, if modest, path to a second score.
A $100 buy at 7¢ gets roughly 1,429 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $1,341.80.
- If Moore scores two or more touchdowns: we cash $1,341.80, a profit of $1,241.80.
- If he scores one or none: the $100 stake is lost.
More than 13x on our stake, this is our widest swing of the night, a true boom outcome rather than a confident lean.
Bills vs. Lions Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
A Money Line contract simply pays out $1 per share if your side wins the game outright, with the current price reflecting the market's implied win probability.
Polymarket has Buffalo as the clear favorite in this Bills vs Lions prediction, in line with the 5.5-point spread most sportsbooks are showing.
Detroit Lions (32%, Yes 32¢)
Detroit needed overtime just to get past New Orleans, and the market treats a road trip to a raucous new stadium as a real uphill climb even for a team many view as a Super Bowl contender.
Buffalo Bills (68%, Yes 68¢)
Buffalo gets a sizable home-field bump from both its Week 1 statement win and the energy of christening Highmark Stadium, even though the Lions boast one of the league's most explosive offenses of the last two seasons.
Bills vs. Lions Spread and Total Predictions
Beyond the Money Line, Polymarket also lists the Total and Spread as binary Yes/No contracts.
Buffalo Bills -5.5 Spread (50%, Yes 50¢)
A dead coin flip on Buffalo covering 5.5 points reflects how thin the market considers the gap between these two rosters, even with the Bills favored outright.
Total: Over 54.5 Points (52%, Yes 52¢)
Both offenses topped 30 points in Week 1, and a 52% lean toward the over is a modest number given how explosive this matchup has been over the last two seasons.
Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Bills vs. Lions
This is the widest market on the board, and these anytime TD scorer predictions cover essentially every skill player with a realistic shot at the end zone tonight.
A handful of names on this board only have their Yes side actively priced, so we've listed only the active price for those contracts rather than showing a blank No column.
- James Cook III (Anytime TD: Yes 56%, No 45%): our top Editor's Pick above, priced as the board's most likely scorer off a 115-yard, one-touchdown Week 1 workload.
- Josh Allen (Anytime TD: Yes 53%, No 48%): already scored twice on the ground in Week 1, and remains live any time Buffalo scripts a quarterback run near the goal line. Our longshot Editor's Pick above targets the tougher 2+ threshold at 16%.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Anytime TD: Yes 44%, No 57%): our Receiving Yards Editor's Pick above also carries real scoring equity after a two-touchdown opener.
- DJ Moore (Anytime TD: Yes 35%, No 66%): a legitimate red-zone target in Detroit's passing attack even in a crowded receiver room. Our longshot Editor's Pick above targets the tougher 2+ threshold at 7%.
- Dalton Kincaid (Anytime TD: Yes 34%, No 67%): caught five of six targets for 130 yards in Week 1, and remains a high-value seam and red-zone option for Buffalo.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (2+ Anytime TD: Yes 32%, No 69%): our Rushing Yards Editor's Pick above, priced here on the tougher multi-touchdown threshold after a two-score Week 1.
- Jameson Williams (Anytime TD: Yes 30%, No 71%): Detroit's field-stretching option carries real touchdown equity any time the Lions look downfield.
- Sam LaPorta (Anytime TD: Yes 30%, No 71%): a proven red-zone target for Goff even with St. Brown and Williams drawing extra attention.
- Khalil Shakir (Anytime TD: Yes 29%, No 72%): Buffalo's reliable underneath option has scoring equity built on target volume rather than big plays.
- Ty Johnson (Anytime TD: Yes 22%, No 90%): a change-of-pace back who can add scoring equity in shorter-yardage packages for Buffalo.
- Keon Coleman (Anytime TD: Yes 17%, No 84%): a boundary threat for Buffalo with real upside on any deep shot that connects.
- Ray Davis (Anytime TD: Yes 17%, No 84%): Buffalo's short-yardage complement back, live any time the Bills call a goal-line package.
- Isaac TeSlaa (Anytime TD: Yes 15%, No 86%): a rotational Lions receiving option with a real, if modest, path to the end zone.
- Dawson Knox (Anytime TD: Yes 15%, No 86%): Buffalo's second tight end still draws real red-zone snaps behind Kincaid.
- Joshua Palmer (Anytime TD: Yes 14%, No 87%): a depth receiving option for Detroit with touchdown equity tied mostly to garbage-time or injury-driven snaps.
- Sione Vaki (Anytime TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): Detroit's change-of-pace back carries longshot goal-line equity behind Gibbs.
- Jackson Hawes (Anytime TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): a depth tight end option for Detroit, priced as a true longshot here.
- Brock Wright (Anytime TD: Yes 7%, No 94%): Detroit's blocking tight end, live mostly on short-yardage looks.
- Greg Dortch (Anytime TD: Yes 6%, No 95%): a depth slot option for Buffalo behind the top three pass catchers.
- Jacob Saylors (Anytime TD: Yes 5%, No 96%): a deep Detroit backfield option with a longshot path to the end zone.
- Jared Goff (Anytime TD: Yes 4%): priced almost entirely on the small chance he adds a rushing score, since passing touchdowns don't count in this market.
- Jackson Meeks (Anytime TD: Yes 4%): a depth Buffalo receiving option with only the Yes side actively priced.
- Tay Martin (Anytime TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): a true depth-chart longshot for Buffalo.
- Skyler Bell (Anytime TD: Yes 4%): another Buffalo depth option with only the Yes side actively priced.
- Tyler Conklin (Anytime TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): Detroit's second tight end, priced as a deep longshot behind LaPorta.
- Keleki Latu (Anytime TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a Buffalo depth-chart longshot.
- Tom Kennedy (Anytime TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a Buffalo receiving option priced as a true longshot.
Best First TD Scorer Prop Today for Bills vs. Lions
First TD Scorer is a narrower sibling of the anytime market above, since it requires a specific player to score the game's very first touchdown rather than any touchdown at any point.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (First TD: Yes 17%, No 84%): our Rushing Yards Editor's Pick above, priced as the field's clear favorite to open the scoring off his Week 1 workload.
- James Cook III (First TD: Yes 15%, No 86%): our top Editor's Pick above, a real threat to strike first given Buffalo's tendency to establish the run early at home.
- Josh Allen (First TD: Yes 12%, No 89%): our other Editor's Pick above, live on any early scripted quarterback run.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (First TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): our longshot Editor's Pick above, and Detroit's top target carries real equity to open the scoring after his two-touchdown opener.
- DJ Moore (First TD: Yes 8%, No 93%): live for an early Detroit red-zone look given his role in the passing game.
- Dalton Kincaid (First TD: Yes 7%, No 94%): our deepest longshot Editor's Pick above, a classic early-drive red-zone look for Buffalo off his 130-yard Week 1.
- Jameson Williams (First TD: Yes 6%, No 95%): live if Detroit scripts an early shot play downfield.
- Khalil Shakir (First TD: Yes 5%, No 96%): would need an early underneath connection with Allen to strike first.
- Sam LaPorta (First TD: Yes 5%, No 96%): live but behind Detroit's top skill players to open the game.
- Isaac TeSlaa (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): a longshot rotational option on Detroit's depth chart.
- Dawson Knox (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): would require an early scripted look for Buffalo's second tight end.
- Joshua Palmer (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): a deep longshot behind Detroit's top options.
- Keon Coleman (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): would need an early deep connection with Allen.
- Ray Davis (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): would need an early short-yardage look to strike first for Buffalo.
- Jackson Hawes (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a longshot tight end option for Detroit.
- Brock Wright (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): unlikely to see early goal-line work ahead of Detroit's top options.
- Greg Dortch (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): a true depth-chart longshot for Buffalo.
- Jacob Saylors (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): a deep Detroit backfield longshot.
- Keleki Latu (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): priced as a true longshot on Buffalo's depth chart.
- Sione Vaki (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): would need an early short-yardage look behind Gibbs.
- Jared Goff (First TD: Yes 1%): a longshot given passing touchdowns don't count toward this market.
- Tay Martin (First TD: Yes 1%): a deep Buffalo receiving longshot.
- Tom Kennedy (First TD: Yes 1%): priced as a true depth-chart longshot.
- Tyler Conklin (First TD: Yes 1%): a longshot behind LaPorta at tight end for Detroit.
- No Touchdown Scored First (Yes 1%): the board's small allowance for a scoreless opening stretch between two high-scoring offenses.
Passing Touchdowns and Passing Yards Props for Bills vs. Lions
Both starting quarterbacks are priced across the same three thresholds tonight, a clean side-by-side look at how the market views each passing attack after a pair of efficient Week 1 outings.
Passing Touchdowns
| Threshold | Josh Allen | Jared Goff |
|---|---|---|
| 2+ Passing TDs | Yes 60¢ | Yes 54¢ |
| 3+ Passing TDs | Yes 30¢ | Yes 23¢ |
| 4+ Passing TDs | Yes 11¢ | Yes 8¢ |
Allen carries the higher price across all three thresholds, in line with his four-touchdown Week 1 (two passing, two rushing) against a Houston defense many considered elite.
Passing Yards
| Threshold | Josh Allen | Jared Goff |
|---|---|---|
| 250+ Passing Yards | Yes 53¢ | Yes 55¢ |
| 275+ Passing Yards | Yes 37¢ | Yes 41¢ |
| 300+ Passing Yards | Yes 25¢ | Yes 26¢ |
Goff actually carries a slightly higher price than Allen at every yardage threshold despite throwing for fewer yards in Week 1, since Detroit's game plan may lean on more early-down passing volume against a Bills defense that just allowed 470 total yards. Our longshot Editor's Pick above takes the top of that ladder, Goff clearing 300 yards at 26.98¢.
Rushing Yards Props for Bills vs. Lions
Both backfields showed real explosiveness in Week 1, which shows up in a tightly bunched set of prices across the board.
- Josh Allen (30+ Rushing Yards: Yes 55%, No 44%): already rushed for 23 yards and two scores in Week 1, and remains live for another heavy dose of designed runs.
- James Cook III (80+ Rushing Yards: Yes 49%, No 52%): our top Editor's Pick above, priced just under even money after a 115-yard Week 1 on the ground.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (90+ Rushing Yards: Yes 49%, No 52%): our other Editor's Pick above, priced almost identically to Cook despite clearing this number by 66 yards last week.
- Sione Vaki (10+ Rushing Yards: Yes 31%, No 74%): a modest bar for Detroit's change-of-pace back behind Gibbs.
Receiving Yards Props for Bills vs. Lions
This is the deepest receiving board of the night given how many legitimate options both offenses can turn to.
- DJ Moore (60+ Receiving Yards: Yes 55%, No 46%): Detroit's field-stretching complement to St. Brown, priced as the board's most trusted receiving option tonight.
- Isaac TeSlaa (15+ Receiving Yards: Yes 55%, No 46%): a low bar for a rotational Lions option that still clears more than half the time.
- Khalil Shakir (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 54%, No 47%): Buffalo's high-floor underneath target off a strong Week 1 target share.
- Dalton Kincaid (50+ Receiving Yards: Yes 54%, No 47%): priced in line with his 130-yard opener, a real number for a tight end this involved.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (30+ Receiving Yards: Yes 53%, No 48%): our Rushing Yards Editor's Pick above also carries real receiving equity out of the backfield.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (80+ Receiving Yards: Yes 51%, No 50%): our Editor's Pick above, priced as a coin flip on the volume monster of this game.
- Jameson Williams (60+ Receiving Yards: Yes 51%, No 50%): Detroit's deep threat carries real field-stretching upside at a higher yardage bar.
- Keon Coleman (15+ Receiving Yards: Yes 50%, No 51%): a fair coin flip for Buffalo's boundary receiver at a modest threshold.
- Joshua Palmer (15+ Receiving Yards: Yes 48%, No 53%): a low bar that still leans slightly against a depth option in Detroit's crowded receiver room.
- James Cook III (20+ Receiving Yards: Yes 48%, No 53%): real receiving equity out of the backfield alongside his Anytime TD Editor's Pick above.
- Sam LaPorta (50+ Receiving Yards: Yes 46%, No 55%): a tougher yardage bar for Detroit's tight end in a crowded target tree.
- Dawson Knox (15+ Receiving Yards: Yes 45%, No 56%): Buffalo's second tight end option, capped behind Kincaid's workload.
Fantasy Points (PPR) Props for Bills vs. Lions
These PPR fantasy contracts blend every stat category into one number, and the thresholds vary widely by role.
- Josh Allen (23+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 60%, No 50%): the highest-priced player on the board, reflecting his four-touchdown Week 1 across the air and the ground.
- Jameson Williams (12+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 60%, No 62%): a strong number for a receiver whose price reflects real big-play upside.
- Sam LaPorta (11+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 56%, No 55%): a modest bar that clears easily given his target volume in this offense.
- Jared Goff (17+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 56%, No 52%): in line with his passing prop pricing above, a fair number after his efficient opener.
- DJ Moore (13+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 56%, No 49%): a reasonable bar given his role as Detroit's field-stretching complement to St. Brown.
- James Cook III (17+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 55%, No 54%): our top Editor's Pick above clears this bar easily given his workload and touchdown equity.
- Khalil Shakir (10+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 55%, No 55%): a low bar for a high-target underneath option in Buffalo's offense.
- Dalton Kincaid (11+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 55%, No 67%): a fair number for a tight end who already posted a 130-yard game this season.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (24+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 54%, No 55%): priced just past a coin flip given how explosive his Week 1 workload already was.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (20+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 52%, No 65%): the highest threshold in the group, requiring another big game from Detroit's top target.
Bills vs. Lions Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
The biggest signal in this whole set of best NFL prop bets today is how tightly Buffalo and Detroit are priced across nearly every skill-position category, despite Buffalo holding a clear 5.5-point spread and a 68% Money Line price.
Both quarterbacks are pricing out as near-equals on yardage and touchdowns, which lines up with two offenses that ranked among the league's most productive over the past two seasons before this Bills vs Lions prediction even kicked off.
James Cook III and Jahmyr Gibbs headline the best NFL player props on the board precisely because both backs already delivered explosive, multi-touchdown workloads in Week 1, and the market hasn't fully priced in how often that volume repeats.
Buffalo's defense allowing 31 points and 470 total yards to Houston is the clearest crack in an otherwise dominant Week 1, and it's a big reason Goff, St. Brown, and the receiving props above are priced as generously as they are.
Layering these numbers together is what makes the anytime TD scorer predictions above stand out from a standard sportsbook line, especially with five or six players on each side carrying a live path to the end zone.
That range of outcomes is exactly why TNF best bets like this one tend to reward touchdown-scorer boards over a single-number spread.
If you want a deeper primer on how these contracts price in real time, Action Network's prediction markets app is a useful way to track live order book movement before you trade.
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Bills vs. Lions: Final Thoughts on Tonight's TNF Best Bets
Buffalo enters with the better résumé through one week, a home crowd breaking in a new stadium, and a five-game winning streak in this series, but Detroit's offense is explosive enough to keep this Bills vs Lions prediction from being a laugher.
Our strongest conviction sits with Cook and Gibbs, two backs who already proved their workloads in Week 1 against playoff-caliber defenses.
That mix of proven volume and shootout upside is what makes tonight's best NFL player props worth a deeper look beyond the spread and total.
If you're building your own slate of TNF best bets, the touchdown-scorer markets above offer the widest range of prices to find an edge, and Action Network's full prediction markets hub is worth bookmarking for the rest of the season.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which new users can apply when signing up to unlock a $50 trading bonus.
What are the best NFL prop bets today for Bills vs. Lions?
The top-ranked plays are James Cook III to score any touchdown, Jared Goff over 2 passing touchdowns, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 80 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 90 rushing yards, and Josh Allen to score the game's first touchdown.
Which best NFL player props stand out for Buffalo's home opener at Highmark Stadium?
James Cook III's anytime touchdown prop and Josh Allen's rushing and passing yardage props stand out most, since both already delivered big performances in Buffalo's Week 1 comeback win at Houston.
Who is favored in Bills vs. Lions?
Buffalo is favored on the Money Line at 68%, with the Spread market pricing the Bills as a near coin flip to cover 5.5 points at 50%.
Which Anytime TD Scorer predictions carry the best value tonight?
James Cook III leads the anytime TD scorer predictions at 56%, followed closely by Josh Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown, both of whom carry real value relative to their price.
How do Polymarket prediction market contracts work?
Each contract resolves to either $1 or $0 per share depending on the outcome, and the price paid reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome happening.
When does this Bills vs. Lions market resolve?
The market resolves once the game reaches its final result, with prop contracts settling based on official NFL statistics for that game.
What does the Polymarket promo code unlock?
Using promo code ACTION when signing up on Polymarket unlocks a $50 trading bonus after a qualifying $10 deposit.








