Best Home Run Bets Today | 9 MLB Predictions for Home Run Props Today (Polymarket Odds)

Baseball's stretch run is producing home run threats on almost every diamond tonight, and Polymarket has a Yes/No contract on all of them.

We built out our best home run bets today across all nine MLB games, part of a full slate of MLB Home Run Predictions Today built on the board's live pricing and real research into form, matchups, and probable starters.

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Best Home Run Bets Today: Our MLB Home Run Predictions Today Picks Table

Every home run pick below comes from an actual Polymarket trade ticket, ranked from the highest to the lowest implied probability on the board. This table doubles as a quick-reference for all of tonight's MLB Predictions in one place, and we'll keep adding to our Best Home Run Bets Today list as more contracts open closer to first pitch.

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

Milwaukee (95-57) has already clinched a fourth straight NL Central title and owns the best record in baseball, while Pittsburgh (75-77) is playing out the string. Milwaukee sends LHP Harrison (10-4, 3.98 ERA) against Pittsburgh's Dotel (1-5, 4.84 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Jackson Chourio

Chourio has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past two weeks.

He homered in each of his final two games against the Cubs last week and is part of an exclusive club of players with 60-plus career homers and 60-plus career steals before turning 23.

Dotel's 4.84 ERA and 1-5 record give a Milwaukee lineup that's clinched its division very little reason to slow down tonight.

We're taking a position on Chourio going deep again in this one.

Buying Yes at 15¢ with a $100 order, the ticket's avg price lands right at that 15¢ mark, working out to roughly 667 shares purchased ($100 ÷ 15¢), each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. The board lists a $629.46 payout on this ticket, a gap from the straight share math that reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error.

• If Chourio goes deep: those shares settle at $1 each for a profit of roughly $566.67 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost in full, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

At 15¢, this is a longer-odds swing with a payout multiple north of 5x, so size it like the lower-probability trade it actually is.

Dodgers vs Reds Prediction

LA (92-60) is chasing a 13th NL West title in 14 years and has made the postseason in 14 straight seasons, while Cincinnati (71-81) is well out of the race. Dodgers LHP Justin Wrobleski (11-5, 3.78 ERA) faces Reds RHP Brady Singer (6-14, 5.38 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Mookie Betts

Betts has been the Dodgers' steadiest offensive force with Shohei Ohtani sidelined.

He just recorded the franchise's 10,000th home run in Los Angeles history and is hitting .298 with seven homers over his last 30 games.

Singer's 5.38 ERA and 14 losses make him one of the softer matchups on tonight's board for a right-handed power bat.

This is the trade we're making tonight on a hitter who keeps coming through in high-leverage spots.

Buying Yes at 16¢ on a $100 order, the avg price holds at 16¢, working out to roughly 625 shares purchased, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution. The board's listed $590.50 payout runs ahead of that straight share math, again a function of order book depth rather than a discrepancy to reconcile.

• If Betts homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $525 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

A near 6x payout multiple at 16¢ reflects a real but far from guaranteed shot, not a lock.

Athletics vs Rays Prediction

Tampa Bay (92-59) has already clinched a postseason berth, the first team in baseball to do so, while the Athletics (61-91) are long since out of it. Oakland/Athletics LHP Jeffrey Springs (4-13, 5.93 ERA) opposes Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.81 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero

Caminero has been the best home run bet in baseball over the past week, not just tonight's board.

He's hit two walk-off home runs in his last four games, including the swing that clinched Tampa Bay's playoff berth, and sits at 41 homers on the year.

Springs carries a 5.93 ERA and a 4-13 record into this one, one of the roughest lines of any starter on tonight's slate.

We like Caminero's power against a lefty who has struggled to miss bats all season.

Buying Yes at 24¢ on a $100 order, the avg price sits at 24¢, working out to roughly 417 shares purchased, each worth $1 if Yes hits. The board shows a $395.75 payout on this ticket, ahead of the straight share math for the reasons noted above.

• If Caminero goes deep: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $316.67 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost in full.

At 24¢, this is one of the shorter-priced home run swings on the board tonight given how hot Caminero has been.

Padres vs Rockies Prediction

San Diego (83-69) is fighting Arizona for the final NL Wild Card spot and travels to Coors Field, where the thin air has always played kindly to power hitters. Padres RHP Michael King (11-9, 3.03 ERA) faces Colorado's Gordon (1-4, 5.55 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Jackson Merrill

Merrill is one swing from a 25-25 season and has been red-hot down the stretch of the Padres' wild card push.

He homered twice on September 9 in the hottest first pitch in Petco Park history, and entered his most recent series with three home runs over his previous six games.

Gordon's 5.55 ERA at altitude in Colorado is exactly the kind of matchup that plays into a lefty bat with real power.

We're backing Merrill's recent surge to continue on the road at Coors Field.

Buying Yes at 22¢ on a $100 order, the avg price holds at 22¢, for roughly 455 shares purchased, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution. The board's $431.18 payout again runs ahead of that share count, consistent with the order book depth and fee gap noted above.

• If Merrill homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $354.55 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

Just under a 4.5x payout multiple at 22¢ is a fair price for a hitter this locked in right now.

Royals vs Astros Prediction

Houston (76-76) is clinging to a slim AL West lead over Texas, while Kansas City (67-85) is playing spoiler. Royals RHP Seth Lugo (7-8, 4.99 ERA) takes the mound, while Houston's starter was unannounced as of this writing.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez is having the best power season of his career after a 2025 wiped out by injury.

He's up to 38-plus home runs on the year and has been compared to peak Barry Bonds by his own teammates for his current stretch of production.

Lugo's 4.99 ERA and 7-8 record give one of the sport's most dangerous left-handed bats a very hittable matchup tonight.

This is our top home run bet today on the entire slate.

Buying Yes at 26¢ on a $100 order, the avg price sits at 26¢, for roughly 385 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. The board's $365.80 payout runs slightly ahead of that share math, in line with the order book depth and fee gap explained above.

• If Alvarez homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $284.62 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

At 26¢, this is the shortest-priced home run swing on tonight's board, reflecting just how automatic Alvarez has looked all season, though a single at-bat outcome is still never a sure thing.

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Phillies vs Mets Prediction

Philadelphia (84-68) looks headed for a wild card spot, while the Mets (69-83) are fading out of contention. Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.69 ERA) opposes Mets RHP Nolan McLean (11-9, 3.24 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber remains one of the most dangerous left-handed power bats in the league and an MVP-caliber threat in a Phillies lineup fighting for playoff positioning.

He's a two-time NL home run leader and enters tonight as a lock for the middle of Philadelphia's order against a Mets club trying to salvage its season.

McLean's 3.24 ERA is respectable, but Schwarber's power plays against any arm on any given night.

We're siding with Schwarber's raw power in a game that could turn into batting practice for the Phillies.

Buying Yes at 24¢ on a $100 order, the avg price holds at 24¢, for roughly 417 shares purchased, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution. The board's $395.75 payout again runs ahead of the straight share math, the same order book depth and fee gap noted throughout this piece.

• If Schwarber homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $316.67 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

A payout multiple north of 4x at 24¢ is a fair price for one of the sport's true power threats.

Tigers vs White Sox Prediction

Detroit (72-80) and Chicago (77-75) are both playing out non-contending seasons, but Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler remains one of the best stories in baseball. Detroit LHP Valdez (10-10, 4.01 ERA) faces White Sox RHP Erick Fedde (8-9, 3.97 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Dillon Dingler

Dingler has been one of the league's best offensive catchers all season, entering the final month with 26 home runs and a shot at Lance Parrish's Tigers catcher record of 33.

He's been cold lately, without a home run in his last several games, which is exactly why the board has priced him closer to a longer shot tonight.

Fedde's 3.97 ERA is a middling matchup, neither a huge green light nor a real red flag.

We're buying into a bounce-back swing from a hitter who's proven he can carry a Tigers lineup all year.

Buying Yes at 15.4¢ on a $100 order, the avg price holds at 15.4¢, for roughly 649 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. The board's $613.12 payout runs slightly behind that straight share math this time, still within the normal order book depth and fee range described above.

• If Dingler homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $549.35 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

At roughly 15.4¢, this is a longer-odds bet on snapping a cold stretch, sized for the lower-probability outcome it actually represents.

Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction

Boston (82-70) is holding a wild card spot, while Texas (76-76) is fighting Houston for the AL West down to the wire. Red Sox RHP Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.76 ERA) faces Rangers LHP Tyler Alexander (5-2, 3.38 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Wilyer Abreu

Abreu set a new career high with 23 home runs at Yankee Stadium last month and has emerged as a genuine power threat near the top of Boston's order.

The catch tonight is the matchup: Abreu bats left-handed and draws Alexander, a lefty with a sharp 3.38 ERA, which is exactly the platoon disadvantage the board's price is accounting for.

We still like Abreu's raw power to work through a tough same-side matchup.

Buying Yes at 16¢ on a $100 order, the avg price holds at 16¢, for roughly 625 shares purchased, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution. The board's $590.50 payout runs ahead of that share math, the same order book depth and fee gap described above.

• If Abreu homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $525 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

A near 6x payout multiple at 16¢ fairly prices a real power bat working against a tough lefty matchup.

Twins vs Angels Prediction

Minnesota (71-81) and the Angels (58-94) are both out of the playoff race, but Mike Trout's return to form has been one of the year's better stories. Twins RHP Bradley (11-6, 3.81 ERA) faces Angels RHP Urena (9-10, 2.88 ERA).

Best Home Run Prop Today – Mike Trout

Trout just snapped a 27-game home run drought, one of the longest of his career, with a blast earlier this month.

He's back to playing center field every day and has looked like his old self at the plate for long stretches of this season.

Urena's 2.88 ERA is the toughest number on tonight's board for a home run bet, which is reflected in Trout's price relative to some of the other names on this list.

We're backing Trout to build on his recently ended drought in a game with almost nothing else on the line for these two clubs.

Buying Yes at 18¢ on a $100 order, the avg price holds at 18¢, for roughly 556 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. The board's $525.61 payout runs ahead of that share math, in line with the order book depth and fee gap explained above.

• If Trout homers: those shares settle for a profit of roughly $455.56 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

A payout multiple over 5x at 18¢ is a fair price on a future Hall of Famer who's just found his power stroke again.

There are more games and more home run props live on Polymarket beyond these nine, with new contracts opening as lineups are confirmed closer to first pitch.

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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts

Tonight's board leans on a mix of red-hot streaks (Caminero, Merrill, Betts, Alvarez) and bounce-back bets on cooler hitters (Dingler, Trout) across all nine MLB Predictions on the slate. That mix is exactly what makes today's MLB Home Run Predictions Today coverage worth checking before every game, since price and recent form don't always point the same direction.

Yordan Alvarez's 26¢ price stands as the shortest-priced home run swing tonight, while Jackson Chourio's 15¢ price offers the deepest value for anyone chasing a bigger multiple.

For more on how these markets stack up against traditional sportsbooks, the prediction markets hub and our list of the best prediction market apps are good starting points, and our full list of prediction market promo codes covers every platform offering a signup bonus right now.

Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with the code and deposit $10 can unlock a $50 trading bonus, which pairs well with the contracts covered in today's MLB Home Run Predictions Today roundup.

What are today's best MLB Predictions for home runs?

Our top home run bets today include Yordan Alvarez (26¢), Junior Caminero (24¢), and Kyle Schwarber (24¢), the three shortest-priced home run contracts on tonight's board.

Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?

Yordan Alvarez carries the highest implied probability on tonight's board at 26¢, reflecting his career-best power season for Houston.

What is a notable home run prop on tonight's board?

Dillon Dingler's home run contract is priced at 15.4¢ despite his 26 home runs this season, since he's been cold over his last several games.

How do Polymarket home run contracts work?

Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in the game and No if he doesn't. Prices are quoted in cents, and each cent roughly reflects that outcome's implied probability.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code?

Sign up for a Polymarket account, enter ACTION during registration, and make a qualifying $10 deposit to unlock the $50 trading bonus.

When do these home run markets resolve?

Each home run contract resolves once its game reaches its final out, based on the official box score for that game.

Was Yordan Alvarez's home run pick from an actual Polymarket trade ticket?

Yes, the Alvarez pick is built from an actual $100 Polymarket trade ticket at 26¢, not a hypothetical example.