MNF TD Props on Kalshi: Best Anytime and First TD Trades on Kalshi for Eagles vs Bears

The NFL closes out Week 3 at Soldier Field, where the Philadelphia Eagles bring a 2-0 record to face the 1-1 Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC. Kalshi has two separate touchdown boards live for the game: an anytime touchdown market covering every skill player on both rosters, and a first touchdown market on the game's opening score. Here's what you need to know before using the Kalshi promo code ACTION200o and making your first trade.

The headline number belongs to Saquon Barkley, who sits at 48 cents to find the end zone at any point and 15 cents to score first, the shortest price on both boards despite the fact that he has not scored a touchdown yet this season. Chicago's side of the board is shaped by a quarterback change, with Caleb Williams ruled out and Case Keenum making his first start in Ben Johnson's offense, which pushes the Bears back toward the run game that gashed Philadelphia for 281 yards last November. Philadelphia, meanwhile, plays this one without Dallas Goedert and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, and Brown's contract on both Kalshi tabs currently reads "outcome to be determined."

Below are eight contracts worth a look, ranked by anytime price, with the anytime and first touchdown numbers sitting side by side so you can see exactly what the market thinks about when each player is likely to score. Note that first touchdown payouts run several times higher than the anytime figures, for reasons the resolution rules make obvious.

Sign up with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 and you'll be able to Get up to $2000 Bonus!

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Prediction

The quarterback situation defines this one. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring strain, and although Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol on Sunday morning, Chicago is going with Case Keenum, who was the only quarterback on the 53-man roster to practice every day this week. Keenum has not started a regular-season game since 2023, and Monday will be his first start in Ben Johnson's system.

That points the Bears back toward the ground. Chicago has averaged 212.5 rushing yards through two games and piled up 291 against Carolina in the opener behind six rushing touchdowns. It also happens to be the exact formula that beat Philadelphia last November, when the Bears ran 47 times for 281 yards and two scores in a 24-15 win, the most rushing yardage the Eagles had surrendered in a decade.

Philadelphia's front has not fixed that yet. The Eagles allowed 254 rushing yards across their first two games and generated only three sacks while pressuring the quarterback on 22.6% of dropbacks, which is a soft profile for a Vic Fangio defense. Chicago's own run defense is middling, allowing 122 yards per game to rank 23rd, and Pro Football Focus has the Bears 25th in yardage surrendered to outside receivers. Both sides of this board have a real path.

Best Touchdown Scorer Trade – Saquon Barkley

Barkley is the most expensive contract on either board, 48% (48¢) to score at any point and 15% (15¢) to open the scoring, and that price is built on reputation rather than 2026 production. He has 92 rushing yards through two games and no touchdowns, and he played just 12 snaps against Tennessee after leaving early with a stinger. He was a full participant late in the week following good MRI results, so the workload should return, but 48 cents asks you to pay a premium for a back who has yet to reach the end zone this year.

A $100 position at 48 cents buys roughly 208 shares, each settling at $1.00 if Barkley scores. Fees on Kalshi are highest near the middle of the price range and order book depth varies, so the realized net on a fill lands somewhat below the headline number.

• If Barkley finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $108.33 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.1x payout multiple on the board's chalk, which is a fair price on a workhorse but the thinnest reward available here.

Best Volume Touchdown Scorer – D'Andre Swift

Swift carries the Bears' highest price at 41% (41¢) anytime and 13% (13¢) to score first, and the case is volume plus history. He ran 18 times for 124 yards and three touchdowns against Carolina in Week 1, and he went for 18 carries, 125 yards and a score against this same Philadelphia defense last November. The concern is what happened next: 16 carries for 45 yards against Minnesota, plus a third-quarter fumble near the goal line that is exactly the kind of play that costs a back short-yardage work.

At 41 cents, $100 converts to about 244 shares. Swift drew a three-year extension this offseason and remains the listed starter, so the touches are not really in question even if the efficiency is.

• If Swift finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $143.90 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is about a 2.4x multiple, a reasonable shape if you believe Chicago leans on the ground game, though the fumble makes the 13-cent first touchdown side the shakier of the two.

Best Quarterback Touchdown Scorer – Jalen Hurts

Remember that Kalshi's anytime tab is labeled "Touchdowns (excluding passing)," so Hurts at 38% (38¢) is purely a rushing proposition. His five passing touchdowns this season do nothing for this contract. What does matter is that new coordinator Sean Mannion committed publicly to keeping the tush push, and Hurts already owns the Eagles' franchise record for career rushing touchdowns with 73 and counting.

The first touchdown board lists him at 10% with the Yes contract offered at 9 cents, a gap worth noticing, because a sneak from the one-yard line is far more likely to finish a drive than to be the first score of the night only if Philadelphia actually reaches the red zone on an early possession. A $100 buy at 38 cents is roughly 263 shares; at 9 cents it is roughly 1,111 shares.

• If Hurts scores a rushing touchdown: the anytime trade resolves Yes and pays out $163.16 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, and a passing touchdown does not help.
• If Hurts scores the game's opening touchdown: the first TD trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,011.11 in profit on $100.
• If anyone else scores first: that position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Hurts scores three times later.

The anytime side at roughly 2.6x is the cleaner of the two, since goal-line sneaks are a feature of this offense rather than a coin flip.

Best Wide Receiver Touchdown Scorer – DeVonta Smith

Smith is the Eagles' clear WR1 in the first season after the A.J. Brown trade, and he looked the part in Nashville: 10 catches on 13 targets for 117 yards and a 22-yard touchdown in the 24-20 win. He carries a 91.8 PFF overall grade, third among 79 qualified receivers, and he was upgraded to full participation on Saturday after managing a hamstring through the week.

At 33% (33¢) this reads light given the matchup. Chicago ranks 25th in yardage allowed to outside receivers, Jaylon Johnson has surrendered a 137.5 opposing passer rating through two weeks, and Tyrique Stevenson has already allowed two touchdowns while carrying a hamstring injury of his own. With Goedert and Hollywood Brown both out, the target concentration gets tighter still.

• If Smith finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $203.03 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly 303 shares on a $100 buy and a 3.0x multiple, which is the best combination of price and matchup among the Philadelphia pass catchers.

Editor's Pick Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Kyle Monangai

This is the Editor's Pick, and it is the widest price-versus-matchup gap on the board. Monangai has 20 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown through two games, an average north of 7 yards per attempt, with a 61-yard scoring run against Carolina. He also handled 22 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown in Chicago's win at Philadelphia last November, outproducing Swift in that game. He sat out one practice with a knee issue and carries no designation for Monday.

The 13-cent spread between Monangai at 28 cents and Swift at 41 cents is the market pricing the depth chart rather than the recent tape. Swift needed 16 carries for 45 yards last week and fumbled near the goal line; Monangai averaged 4.7 per carry on the same soaked field. With Keenum starting, Chicago will run early and often, and a $100 position at 28 cents buys roughly 357 shares.

• If Monangai finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $257.14 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 3.6x multiple on the back who was Chicago's most efficient runner in both games, which is the best risk-reward shape on either tab.

Sign up with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 and you'll be able to Get up to $2000 Bonus!

Best Tight End Touchdown Scorer – Colston Loveland

Loveland is the interesting name on Chicago's board because his price reflects two weeks of silence rather than his actual role. The 2025 first-rounder caught 58 passes for 713 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie and finished last season as Williams' favorite target, with double-digit targets in four straight games. In 2026 he has one catch on five targets, which ranks 31st among tight ends.

At 21% (21¢) the market is splitting the difference between the rookie-year production and the cold start, and a game script where Keenum needs safe intermediate throws is the kind that brings a tight end back into the picture. Cole Kmet, listed behind him, already has a touchdown this season, so this is not a clean target monopoly.

• If Loveland finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $376.19 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly 476 shares at 21 cents and a 4.8x multiple, a sensible small-stake swing on a bounce-back rather than a core position.

Best Value Touchdown Scorer – Dontayvion Wicks

Acquired from Green Bay and re-signed on a one-year, $12.5 million deal, Wicks has settled in as Philadelphia's WR2 and is averaging 73.5 receiving yards per game, good enough for top-20 production at the position through two weeks. He had four catches for 54 yards inside the first three possessions in Tennessee, which tells you he is in the early-game rotation rather than a rotational piece.

Same 21 cents as Loveland but a different argument: Wicks is the beneficiary if Chicago devotes extra attention to Smith, and the absences of Goedert and Hollywood Brown thin out the competition for red zone looks. His 6-cent first touchdown price is a shade higher than Loveland's for the same reason.

• If Wicks finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $376.19 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 4.8x multiple on the secondary receiver in an offense missing two of its pass catchers, which is the definition of a leverage play.

Best Longshot Touchdown Scorer – Tank Bigsby

Bigsby is the widest price among the eight here at 13% (13¢), and he has the most recent Eagles touchdown of anyone on this list. When Barkley left the Tennessee game with a stinger, Bigsby took over as the lead back and scored on the ensuing drive. He also has a 766-yard, seven-touchdown season on his résumé from his time in Jacksonville, so the goal-line work is not foreign to him.

The risk is obvious: this only pays if Philadelphia either spreads its short-yardage work around or Barkley's snap count gets managed again. Bigsby missed Thursday's practice with an abdomen issue before being upgraded to full by Saturday, and Will Shipley, who is mainly a passing-down back, was limited two straight days with a foot problem.

• If Bigsby finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $669.23 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

About 769 shares at 13 cents for a 7.7x multiple, a genuinely narrow path that belongs at a fraction of the stake you would put behind Monangai or Smith.

Kalshi has touchdown contracts live for every player on both active rosters, plus separate first Chicago touchdown and first Philadelphia touchdown tabs for this game, so there is more on the board than the eight names covered here.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions on Kalshi

Ready to take a position on today's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

Don't forget to use the promo code ACTION2000 when signing up to Get up to $2000 Bonus!

Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

NFL First Touchdown and Anytime Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The shape of this board is a running-back board. Barkley, Swift, Monangai and Bigsby occupy four of the top eight prices, and that is a rational response to a game featuring a 38-year-old making his first start in a new system on one side and a defense that has given up 254 rushing yards in two weeks on the other.

The softest number relative to recent production is Monangai at 28 cents. The market has him 13 cents behind Swift, which prices the depth chart rather than the last two Sundays, and it is worth remembering that Monangai outcarried and outproduced Swift when these teams met last November. DeVonta Smith at 33 cents is the second-best value, given Chicago's 25th-ranked defense against outside receivers and a target share that tightens with Goedert and Hollywood Brown unavailable.

Loveland at 21 cents is the contract that reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a mispricing. His rookie-season role says he should be well short of that number, but one catch on five targets through two games with a backup quarterback throwing is a legitimate reason for the market to be cautious. The Hurts line is the other one to watch, since the 10% reading against a 9-cent first touchdown offer is the kind of small gap that closes fast once early money arrives.

Lineup and injury news can reprice this whole board in minutes, and a few things are still unsettled: Chicago has not formally announced its game-day lineup, Zach Ertz is expected to be elevated from the practice squad before the Monday afternoon deadline, and Elijah Moore could be active for the first time this season. Track it through the prediction market apps before kickoff.

MNF Predictions: Final Thoughts

This board runs from 48 cents down to 3 cents across the two markets, and the theme connecting it is a game that projects to be decided on the ground. The anytime tab gives you multiples between 2.1x and 7.7x; the first touchdown tab stretches that to 33x at the bottom end, and those numbers are a function of a narrow path rather than free money.

Because every first touchdown contract here is a longshot by construction, treat that tab as a small-stake board rather than a slate to spread evenly at full size. A 20x or 33x figure describes a low probability, not an edge, and the anytime side is where the reasonable position sizing lives.

Above all, each of these is an independent all-or-nothing contract, not a parlay. Every one of them settles at $1.00 or $0, the full stake is at risk on each, and size accordingly.

NFL Predictions and MNF Touchdown Props: Kalshi Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Kalshi promo code and offer?

New users can sign up with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 to claim the current welcome offer and start trading event contracts on the Eagles at Bears touchdown markets.

What are the best touchdown props on the board for Eagles vs Bears?

Kyle Monangai at 28 cents is the top call, followed by DeVonta Smith at 33 cents and Dontayvion Wicks at 21 cents. Monangai has the best combination of price, recent efficiency and history against this Philadelphia run defense.

Which player carries the highest implied probability?

Saquon Barkley, at 48% (48¢) on the anytime tab and 15% (15¢) to score the game's first touchdown. He is the shortest price on both boards despite not having scored yet in 2026.

How do Kalshi anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

Each contract is a Yes or No position priced in cents from 1 to 99, where the price maps directly to implied probability. Kalshi's anytime tab for this game is labeled "Touchdowns (excluding passing)," so passing touchdowns do not count toward a player's Yes resolution. Contracts settle all-or-nothing at $1.00 for Yes and $0 for No.

How is the first touchdown market different from the anytime market?

A first touchdown contract resolves Yes only if the named player scores the first touchdown of the game by either team. A player who scores three touchdowns but not the opening one resolves No. That narrow requirement is why first touchdown prices sit in the 2-cent to 15-cent range here while anytime prices run up to 48 cents. Kalshi also lists separate first Chicago touchdown and first Philadelphia touchdown tabs, which resolve on each team's opening score rather than the game's.

Why are first touchdown payouts so much larger?

Price is probability on an exchange, so a lower price means a bigger multiple. Saquon Barkley at 15 cents pays about 6.7 times the stake and Tank Bigsby at 3 cents pays about 33 times, but those figures exist because the events are unlikely, not because the market has made a mistake. Kalshi also charges a per-trade fee that scales with price, so the realized net on any filled position lands slightly under the headline math.

How do I claim the promo and start trading?

Create an account with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 complete verification, fund the account, then find the Eagles at Bears event and choose the Anytime Touchdown or First TD tab. Buying a Yes contract at the listed cent price opens the position.

When do these contracts settle?

Touchdown contracts settle once the game is final and official NFL scoring information confirms the result, so payouts on this game land shortly after the Monday night finish at Soldier Field.

What is the Editor's Pick and why?

Kyle Monangai at 28 cents. He is averaging over 7 yards per carry with a touchdown through two games, he ran 22 times for 130 yards and a score against this Eagles defense last November, and Chicago is likely to lean heavily on the run with Case Keenum making his first start in Ben Johnson's offense. The 13-cent gap between Monangai and D'Andre Swift looks wider than the current form justifies.

Are more markets available beyond these eight players?

Yes. Kalshi lists anytime and first touchdown contracts for every active player on both rosters, including both team defenses, plus team-specific first touchdown tabs for this game and touchdown markets across the rest of the NFL slate.

Kalshi Promo Code ACTION2000 Terms & Conditions

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.