Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction | Best MLB Player Props Today for BAL vs TOR Double Header Game 1

A rainout in Baltimore turned Wednesday into a split-admission double header at Camden Yards, with Game 1 first pitch set for this afternoon.

Both the Orioles and Blue Jays are playing out the string of a season that has slipped away from a wild card berth, but Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer taking the mound in the opener still gives this slate real texture.

Here is a full breakdown of the best MLB player props today, built around 5 Polymarket tickets worth trading in this BAL vs TOR double header opener.

Best MLB Player Props for Blue Jays vs Orioles

Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, and Alejandro Kirk headline a home run and total bases board that's been moving throughout the morning.

Each of these 5 tickets comes straight off a live Polymarket board, not a hypothetical line, and every price below reflects where the market sits ahead of Game 1's first pitch.

Promo code ACTION unlocks a Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus! for new traders looking to back any of the best MLB player props today.

Best MLB Player Props: Our Top Polymarket Picks for the BAL vs TOR Double Header

We looked at five separate tickets across the pitching matchup and the lineup boards, and we're comfortable trading all five heading into the doubleheader opener.

Best Earned Runs Allowed Pick Today – Chris Bassitt

Bassitt is a first-year Oriole on a one-year deal, and he only just returned in mid-August from a back procedure that cost him nearly all of June and July.

He's a sinker-heavy, ground-ball pitcher who leans on soft contact rather than swing-and-miss, which is exactly the profile that gives up the occasional damage-limiting run rather than a shutdown line.

Against a Toronto lineup that's still fighting for its playoff life, we like the idea that he lets in at least two earned runs before this one's over.

The board has Bassitt's Yes side priced at 58¢, so we're buying $100 worth of shares at that price for our position.

At an average price of 58¢, $100 buys roughly 172 shares, and each share pays out $1 if the market resolves Yes.

• If Bassitt allows 2 or more earned runs: profit of $163.08.
• If he holds Toronto to 0 or 1 earned run: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

It's a modest 1.63x payout multiple, reflecting a market that already leans our way, but it's a trade we're comfortable making given his recent workload and track record for giving up a run or two even in his better outings.

Best Outs Recorded Prop Today – Max Scherzer

Scherzer just became the 11th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,500 career strikeouts, and at 41 years old he's still logging real innings for Toronto's rotation.

His overall numbers this season, a 3-8 record and a 6.07 ERA, tell the story of a bounce-back attempt that hasn't fully landed, but he's shown he can still work deep into a start when his command is on.

15 or more outs recorded is a 5-inning floor, which is a fair but not aggressive bar for a pitcher of his caliber even in a down year.

We're buying the Yes side at 53¢ with a $100 stake on this one.

At 53¢ average price, that $100 buys roughly 189 shares, worth $1 each if Scherzer clears 15 outs.

• If Scherzer records 15 or more outs: profit of $176.39.
• If he's pulled before reaching that mark: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

A payout multiple near 1.76x for what amounts to a coin-flip-plus line on a veteran with a long track record of eating innings feels like fair value to us.

Best Total Bases Pick Today – Alejandro Kirk

Kirk is Toronto's steadiest bat-to-ball threat, and his 1+ hits number on this same board sits at a robust 70%, well ahead of every other hitter in the lineup.

Two or more total bases just requires him to turn one of those likely hits into an extra-base knock, or pair a single with another hit later in the game.

Against a Baltimore staff that's been shaky in run prevention down the stretch, we like his chances of clearing that bar in an afternoon game.

We're buying the Yes side at 39¢ with our standard $100 stake.

At an average price of 39¢, $100 buys roughly 256 shares, each worth $1 if Kirk clears 2 total bases.

• If Kirk finishes with 2 or more total bases: profit of $245.97.
• If he falls short: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

A 2.46x payout multiple on a contact hitter with a strong recent track record against this pitching staff is the kind of risk-reward shape we like to build a multi-pick slate around.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Alonso

Alonso signed a five-year, $155 million deal with Baltimore over the winter, and he's still the most dangerous power bat in this lineup even in an up-and-down first AL season.

He's on pace for another 30-homer year and leads the American League in RBI, which is exactly the kind of thump we want on our side facing a Toronto bullpen that will need to piece together relief innings if Scherzer's outing runs short.

22% is a reasonable price for an elite home run threat in a single game, and we're comfortable buying in at that number.

We're putting $100 on the Yes side at an average price of 22¢.

That works out to roughly 454 shares, each worth $1 if Alonso goes deep at any point in the game.

• If Alonso hits a home run: profit of $431.18.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

A 4.31x payout on the best power hitter in this lineup is the kind of longshot-with-real-thump ticket that's worth a small stake even without overstating how likely any single home run is on any given afternoon.

Best Home Run Bets Today – Kazuma Okamoto

Okamoto has been the hottest hitter on either roster over the last two weeks, running a .348 average with five home runs in his last seven games.

The rookie import from Japan already set the single-season home run record for a Japanese-born right-handed hitter earlier this month, and the swing hasn't cooled off since.

15% undersells a hitter riding this kind of heat, and that gap between his recent form and his listed price is exactly why we're taking this position.

We're buying $100 of the Yes side at an average price of 15¢.

That's roughly 667 shares purchased, each paying $1 if Okamoto homers in this game.

• If Okamoto hits a home run: profit of $629.46.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

At a 6.29x payout multiple, this is the highest-variance ticket on our list, but it's backed by as strong a recent form case as any hitter in the sport right now.

Sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!

BAL vs TOR Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts

Polymarket money line contracts pay out $1 per share if the team you back wins the game, with the share price itself reflecting the market's implied win probability.

These prices resolve at the final out of Game 1 specifically, not the doubleheader as a whole, since each contest on Polymarket's board is tied to its own game.

Orioles (54%, Yes 54¢)

Baltimore is the home team and the favorite here, and Bassitt's return to form gives them a real edge on the mound even as the standings have long since turned unforgiving.

Blue Jays (46%, Yes 46¢)

Toronto still has a mathematical pulse in the wild card race, which makes Scherzer's outing in this Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction more important to the visitors than the Orioles, even with the Jays priced as the slight underdog.

BAL vs TOR Double Header Spread and Total Predictions

Orioles -1.5 Run Line

Baltimore winning by 2 or more runs is priced at 36% Yes and 65% No, which lines up with a game we expect to be closer than a blowout given both bullpens are managing workload across two games today.

Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs

The total sits at 49% Yes for the over and 52% No for the under, essentially a coin flip between two lineups that both have real thump in the middle of the order.

Blue Jays vs Orioles Home Run Props

Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced by the market, but every hitter below is shown with whatever side is live right now.

• Pete Alonso (HR 1+: Yes 22%): the Orioles' biggest power threat and the most likely Baltimore hitter to clear the fence.
• Samuel Basallo (HR 1+: Yes 19%): the rookie catcher has real power and has been getting everyday reps down the stretch.
• Coby Mayo (HR 1+: Yes 18%): Baltimore's corner infielder carries legitimate pull-side pop when he connects.
• Gunnar Henderson (HR 1+: Yes 17%): the Orioles' franchise shortstop remains a threat to run into one at any point in the order.
• Dylan Beavers (HR 1+: Yes 16%): the Baltimore outfielder has shown developing power in his first extended big-league look.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (HR 1+: Yes 16%): the Orioles' April trade pickup still swings with plenty of raw thump when he's in the lineup.
• Kazuma Okamoto (HR 1+: Yes 15%): Toronto's NPB import is red-hot right now, riding a five-homer stretch over his last seven games.
• George Springer (HR 1+: Yes 10%): the veteran outfielder's role has been in flux in September, which tempers his price here.
• Alejandro Kirk (HR 1+: Yes 9%): Kirk's game is built on contact rather than power, so his home run price stays low even with his other numbers strong.
• Nathan Lukes (HR 1+: Yes 7%): a table-setter more than a power bat, Lukes rounds out the board at the lowest price.

Blue Jays vs Orioles Hits Props

Contact-driven props like these tend to carry the highest implied probabilities on the board, and this game's board is no exception.

• Alejandro Kirk (Hits 1+: Yes 70%): the highest-priced hitter on the entire board, reflecting Kirk's low strikeout rate and steady bat-to-ball skills.
• Nathan Lukes (Hits 1+: Yes 66%): a steady table-setter who puts the ball in play as often as anyone in this lineup.
• George Springer (Hits 1+: Yes 64%): even with his role in flux, Springer's track record for making contact keeps this price high.
• Dylan Beavers (Hits 1+: Yes 63%): Beavers has settled in nicely at the plate since his call-up.
• Gunnar Henderson (Hits 1+: Yes 61%): still the engine of this Baltimore lineup even with the team fading out of contention.
• Pete Alonso (Hits 1+: Yes 61%): Alonso's contact rate has caught up to his power as he's settled into his first AL season.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Hits 1+: Yes 59%): a solid floor for a hitter who's fighting for at-bats behind Alonso at the corner infield spots.
• Kazuma Okamoto (Hits 1+: Yes 59%): even outside his home run heater, Okamoto is squaring up the ball consistently right now.
• Coby Mayo (Hits 1+: Yes 56%): the lowest-priced everyday hitter on this list, reflecting a bit more swing-and-miss in his game.

Blue Jays vs Orioles Total Bases Props

Total bases props sit between the high-probability hits market and the low-probability home run market, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand's line is tracked at a higher 4+ threshold than the rest of the board.

• Pete Alonso (Total Bases 2+: Yes 42%): the top price on the board, driven by his combination of contact and raw power.
• Alejandro Kirk (Total Bases 2+: Yes 39%): our Editor's Pick, and the highest-priced Blue Jay on this specific board.
• Gunnar Henderson (Total Bases 2+: Yes 39%): Henderson's gap power keeps him in range of extra bases most nights.
• George Springer (Total Bases 2+: Yes 35%): a fair number for a veteran whose role has been trimmed but who can still deliver a double or a homer.
• Coby Mayo (Total Bases 2+: Yes 35%): Mayo's power upside shows up more here than in the straight hits market.
• Dylan Beavers (Total Bases 2+: Yes 36%): a solid number for a rookie who's shown he can drive the ball into the gaps.
• Nathan Lukes (Total Bases 2+: Yes 34%): more of a singles hitter, so this line runs lower than his hits number would suggest.
• Samuel Basallo (Total Bases 2+: Yes 32%): the rookie catcher's power is real but still finding its floor at the big-league level.
• Kazuma Okamoto (Total Bases 2+: Yes 31%): a touch lower than his hot streak might suggest, worth watching if it drifts before first pitch.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Total Bases 4+: Yes 20%): tracked at a higher 4+ threshold, which explains the lower price relative to the rest of this list.

Scherzer vs Bassitt: Pitching Matchup Props

Both starters are on one-year deals with new AL East clubs this season, and their statlines this afternoon should say a lot about where each of their seasons is trending.

Strikeouts

• Max Scherzer (Strikeouts 5+: Yes 44%): a future Hall of Famer who just passed 3,500 career strikeouts, but a 10% drop today suggests the market has some concern about pitch count or a short leash.
• Chris Bassitt (Strikeouts 4+: Yes 54%): Bassitt isn't a big strikeout arm, but 4+ is a modest bar for a pitcher who's shown he can miss enough bats to get there.

Outs Recorded

• Chris Bassitt (Outs Recorded 17+: Yes 51%): a near-coin-flip line for a starter who's only made a handful of appearances since returning from injury.
• Max Scherzer (Outs Recorded 15+: Yes 53%): our Editor's Pick, priced as a modest favorite to clear five full innings.

Earned Runs Allowed

• Chris Bassitt (Earned Runs Allowed 2+: Yes 58¢): our top Editor's Pick, and the highest-probability line on this entire prop board.
• Max Scherzer (Earned Runs Allowed 2+: Yes 61%): the market leans even harder toward multiple earned runs for Scherzer given his 6.07 ERA on the season.

BAL vs TOR Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market

The moneyline barely budged overnight, with Baltimore's price ticking up just 1% to 54% and Toronto's dipping under 1% to 46%, which tells you the board already priced in Bassitt's return and Scherzer's recent workload before today's news cycle even started.

The total climbed 3% to 49% on the over, the single biggest overnight move on the main board, likely tied to both bullpens needing to pace their better arms across a doubleheader rather than empty the tank in Game 1.

On the pitching props, Scherzer's strikeout number fell a full 10%, the sharpest single move anywhere on this slate, while his earned runs allowed price only eased 2%, suggesting the market is more worried about a shortened outing than about him simply getting hit hard.

Bassitt's earned runs allowed price dropped 9% as well, which lines up with the sense that Baltimore's coaching staff may be managing his workload carefully after the back issue, and that tension defines this Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction as much as either offense does.

Traders looking for more context on how these contracts are priced can dig into the full prediction markets coverage at Action Network before placing a position.

Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade Orioles vs Blue Jays

Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.

Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!

Disclaimer: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Blue Jays vs Orioles Double Header: Final Thoughts

Tuesday's rainout turned into an unusual gift for prop bettors: two full pricing boards in one day, starting with this afternoon's opener between two clubs that are mostly playing for pride at this point in September.

Bassitt's earned runs allowed line and Scherzer's outs recorded number both feel like the sharpest reads on a pitching matchup between two veterans trying to prove they still belong in a rotation.

On the position player side, Okamoto's home run price is the one number on this board that looks out of step with what he's actually doing at the plate right now, which is why our Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction leans on him as the highest-upside ticket of the five.

For anyone new to trading these contracts, the prediction market apps guide at Action Network is a good next stop before Game 2 of the double header gets underway tonight.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code for this Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction?

The current promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10 on Polymarket.

Why are the Orioles and Blue Jays playing a double header today?

Tuesday's game between the two teams was postponed by heavy rain in Baltimore, and it was rescheduled as a split-admission double header on Wednesday, with Game 1 at 1:35 PM ET and Game 2 at 6:35 PM ET.

Who is favored in the BAL vs TOR moneyline market?

The Orioles are the slight favorite on Polymarket at 54%, with the Blue Jays priced at 46% to win Game 1.

What is the top home run prop on the board for this game?

Pete Alonso carries the highest home run price on the Baltimore side at 22%, while Kazuma Okamoto leads Toronto's home run board at 15% despite his recent hot stretch.

How do Polymarket event contracts work?

Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents based on the market's implied probability of an outcome, and every share settles at $1 if the outcome hits or $0 if it doesn't.

How does the ACTION promo code work on Polymarket?

New users who sign up with the code and deposit at least $10 unlock a $50 trading bonus that can be applied toward event contracts like the ones covered in this piece.

When does this Game 1 market resolve?

All of the Game 1 contracts on this board resolve at the conclusion of the first game of the double header, based on official MLB box score statistics.

What is the Editor's Pick for this Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction?

Our top pick is Chris Bassitt allowing 2 or more earned runs at 58¢, the highest-probability line across the entire five-pick slate.