Let me start by saying that a lot goes into handicapping sports, especially the NFL — traditional stats, advanced stats, weather, matchups and so on.
Another box to check, in addition to the ones above, is the game officials and the historical data they bring to the table.
For Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots, Shawn Smith was tabbed to be the head referee. This marks his Super Bowl debut after serving as an alternate referee for Super Bowl LV and LVIII (according to Football Zebras).
Super Bowl Referee Trends, Stats for Shawn Smith
Biography | Penalties | League Stats | Team Stats |
Shawn Smith Bio
➤ This will be Smith's first on-field Super Bowl assignment. From a biography standpoint, Smith was born in Detroit, Mich.; he grew up in Southfield, Mich. and attended Ferris State University.
This will be Smith's second playoff game as a head official. He was the main referee for the Patriots-Texans playoff game, a matchup New England won 28-16 with only seven total accepted penalties called in the game.
➤ Smith is associated with the Detroit metro area and is described in multiple sources as an internal auditor/corporate manager for a major health insurer in that region, and a Southfield (Oakland County), Mich.
He started officiating as a flag football official at Eastern Michigan University (EMU), was recruited to run track/play football at EMU, and later transferred to Ferris State.
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Shawn Smith Penalty Tendencies
➤ Let's review some of Smith's penalty tendencies over the last few seasons:
Smith only called three roughing the passer penalties this season, tied for the 3rd-fewest of any official. Smith also only called three accepted roughing the passer penalties last year.
Smith only called 29 accepted offensive holding calls this season, the 2nd-fewest of any official in the NFL, including just 1.71 offensive holding calls per game, the fewest in the NFL. Smith was tied for the 3rd-fewest accepted offensive holding calls last year, too.
On the other end of the spectrum, Smith called 23 accepted defensive pass interference penalties, tied for the 2nd-most of any official this season. In a similar vein, he called 22 total defensive holding penalties, both accepted and dismissed this season, the 2nd-most of any official. Last year, Smith led the NFL in defensive holding calls.
Unnecessary roughness penalties have been at the top of Shawn Smith's list in recent years. He is tied for the 3rd-most accepted unnecessary roughness penalties this season and last season. In 2023, Smith led the NFL in these accepted penalties with 28 such calls, the most we've seen in a single season in the last decade.
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Shawn Smith League Trends
➤ Smith's games have been an interesting case in close calls. Favorites are 87-41-1 SU (68%) since 2018 with Smith as the head official, winning by a small margin, just 4.9 PPG. In that same span, underdogs are 68-55-6 ATS (55.3%), covering by a little over a half point per game, finishing .500 ATS or better in five of the last six seasons.
When the team who is favored has a line of -3 or higher, they are 76-29-1 SU (72.4%) with Smith as the main official, winning those games by 6.1 PPG.
➤ When you look at Smith's seven playoff games as the main official, underdogs have ruled the way, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS, covering the spread by 3.3 PPG. In those seven playoff games, the over is 5-2, going over the total by 6.1 PPG.
➤ Smith has been the main official for five games in Levi's Stadium. The underdogs went 3-2 SU in those games, including the under going 3-2, with the last game coming back in 2022. In those five games at Levi's Stadium, Smith's crews have called 69 penalties, for 13.8 penalties per game combined for both teams, with 13+ penalties in four of the five games.
➤ Here's a wild one: the team leading at the half when Smith is the lead official is just 41-79-3 (34.2%) against the second half spread, failing to cover the 2H spread by 2.9 PPG. Since 2008, we've had 54 main officials in the NFL, that is the worst 2H ATS mark for teams leading at the half.
Of Smith's eight seasons in the NFL as a main official, those teams leading at the half are under .500 2H ATS in all eight seasons.
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Patriots, Seahawks Trends With Smith
➤ The Patriots are 2-0 SU this season with Smith as the head official, scoring 61 total points and allowing just 31 pts vs. the Texans and Giants (all games with Drake Maye). Mike Vrabel is 6-3 SU with Smith as the head official.
Drake Maye has started three career games with Smith as the main official; New England is 2-1 SU, but more importantly, the Pats scored 28, 33 and 22 pts for a 27.7 PPG mark.
In those three games with Maye, New England was either even or had fewer penalties than its opponent in all three games.
➤ Smith has been the main official for two Patriots games away from Foxboro — New England is 2-0 SU in those games, with the Patriots' opponents scoring a total of 30 points in the two games (Cardinals, Jets).
➤ Sam Darnold is 1-3 SU with Smith as the main official; Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is 0-1 SU with Smith, losing to the Giants, 29-20.
In Darnold's four career starts with Smith as the main official, he's been sacked 3+ times in all four starts with seven pass TDs and seven interceptions in those games. In those four starts, Darnold received one roughing the passer penalty on 11 QB hits while passing.
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