The modern NFL is all about offense.
It's a score-first NFL in 2026, and today's offenses are so good that even the league's best defenses struggle to keep up. Even as some of the league's top defenses struck back, we still live in a world where offense reigns supreme.
An offense is always more than one person, but an elite quarterback can carry an entire unit. We already ranked this year's QBs, and you'll find plenty of overlap here with my NFL offense rankings since QB performance makes up over 40% of overall offensive rating, according to Football Outsiders.
But it's not just the quarterbacks.
Skill position players make all the splashy plays, and offensive lines might be the single most important position group on a football team. And an elite offensive coordinator and coaching scheme can elevate an offense to something more than the sum of its parts — less additive and more of a force multiplier effect.
Today we rank every NFL offense, from 1 to 32. And though these are rankings, think of them more like directional predictions — the closer the team is to either end of the ranks, the more confident I am that they'll end up there.
We'll of course skew pass-heavy in a league where passing is king, and as always, the rankings are in tiers.
Be sure to check out the whole NFL rankings series:
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2026 NFL Offense Rankings
| Tier Number | Category |
|---|---|
| Tier 1 | Let’s Run It Back, Shall We? |
| Tier 2 | Gunnin' for #1 |
| Tier 3 | Stud AFC QBs Lifting Their Supporting Casts |
| Tier 4 | The Sky's the Limit |
| Tier 5 | This Would Be Extremely Disappointing |
| Tier 6 | Squint and You Can Make a Real Case |
| Tier 7 | Definitely Not Good, But Shouldn't Be Terrible |
| Tier 8 | The Bottom Could Drop Out |
| Tier 9 | No Ceiling in Sight |
| Betting Takeaways |
Tier 1 — Let’s Run It Back, Shall We?
1. Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: 8 | Skill positions: 1 | Offensive Line: 10 | Offensive Coordinator: 2 | Last Year: 10
Offense is sticky at the top since the league's best offenses are led by its top quarterbacks and playcallers year after year. In L.A.'s case, it's got both.
The Rams led the league in both Rushing and Passing DVOA last year — lapping the rest of the NFL — and they were especially elite running the football, with a historically great Success Rate as Kyren Williams and Blake Corum sliced up defenses behind a top-10 line.
If that's surprising, it shouldn't be.
The Rams' rushing attack has now ranked as good or better than the pass in 8-of-9 Sean McVay years, so last year's passing was also an outlier. All of that can only mean one thing: last year's success will be mighty tough to replicate.
Ty Simpson is no Matthew Stafford, so if he has to play, or if Puka Nacua or Alaric Jackson miss any real time, that would throw off a surprisingly fragile ecosystem — and those latter two guys have off-field concerns, too.
This offense is loaded at every position, and it's hard to rank any other team at the top. But while the Rams led the league in Offensive DVOA last fall, they've never finished better than 8th in the other four Stafford years. How close can they get to last season's masterpiece?
Tier 2 — Gunnin' for #1
2. Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: 1 | Skill positions: 15 | Offensive Line: 6 | Offensive Coordinator: 16 | Last Year: 2
These names at the top shouldn't be surprising.
Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL, and Buffalo has ranked top-5 in Offensive DVOA four straight seasons, including top-3 in passing in four of the last five years.
It's worth noting that the one outlier there was last season, when the passing dropped to 10th as Allen struggled with his usually pristine pocket management, but Buffalo has become much more of a power run team under Joe Brady anyway. The Bills rank top-10 in Rushing DVOA in each of the last four seasons and top-5 the last two.
Buffalo consistently has one of the league's top lines, and the WR corps has been built with blocking in mind too, even if it leaves the team without a sexy target leading the way. Add in a talented TE trio and everything is set up for James Cook to run free and let Allen do everything else.
Allen is both the floor and the ceiling in this offense. I wish this offense were not nearly as run heavy, too often relying on Allen to don the Superman cape late, but there's no denying the annual production.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: 10 | Skill positions: 8 | Offensive Line: 9 | Offensive Coordinator: 2 | Last Year: 4
Even as they enter the season with plenty of question marks to their stars regarding injuries and the aging curve, the 49ers still project as one of the league's top offenses as long as Kyle Shanahan has everything whirring.
Shanahan's offense has finished top-9 in six of the last seven seasons even with the barrage of injuries that seem to hit this unit annually. Even as the rushing attack has quietly faded the last couple years as Christian McCaffrey loses effectiveness (as a runner), Brock Purdy has just as quietly risen as a passer to make this offense better than ever.
In three years with Purdy as a starter, the 49ers average No. 4 on offense by DVOA, with two of the seasons in the top-2 and the other missing mostly because Purdy and McCaffrey missed so much time.
As long as those two and Trent Williams are out there for Shanahan, the floor of this offense remains ridiculously secure — no matter how many substation injuries rack up around that trio.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: 7 | Skill positions: 4 | Offensive Line: 12 | Offensive Coordinator: 7 | Last Year: 16
A healthy Dak Prescott has led the Cowboys offense to a top-10 finish in 6-of-7 seasons, but that's just about always been in the back half of the top-10, not the top.
George Pickens got the buzz for last year's offensive performance, but the truth is that it was the rushing attack under OC Klayton Adams that really got unlocked. Adams calls such a creative scheme under head coach Brian Schottenheimer, and the two have really opened up this offense.
If there's a further step to come, it will need to be Prescott and the passing game. With a return to health for CeeDee Lamb and perhaps the league's best WR trio with Ryan Fluornoy in tow, the offense should also benefit from not playing next to the league's worst defense, which should lead to more favorable game scripts and field position.
Dallas' tackles are weak, especially in pass protection, and the RB room leaves plenty to be desired, but the coaching staff and the talent in the passing game give this group a ceiling Dallas is still scratching the surface of.
5. Chicago Bears
Quarterback: 13 | Skill positions: 11 | Offensive Line: 7 | Offensive Coordinator: 2 | Last Year: 8
We were in early on Ben Johnson last season, backing this offense to lead the Bears to a worst-to-first turnaround, and we were right.
After six straight years ranked 22-to-26 in DVOA, this offense jumped immediately to 9th under Johnson's leadership. The rushing attack was especially great, with a heavy investment in the offensive line paying off and Johnson's scheme doing the rest.
Johnson also helped turn things around for Caleb Williams, who took a major step forward and turned his deep ball and his pocket presence from major weaknesses into genuine strengths.
Now Williams needs to learn to eat his vegetables and hit some singles now and then instead of hunting home runs down the field so often, especially if Rome Odunze and Luther Burden take another step forward.
This is the exact sort of turnaround Johnson brought about in Detroit, and the young talent in Chicago is still only just scratching the surface.
Tier 3 — Stud AFC QBs Lifting Their Supporting Casts
6. Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: 2 | Skill positions: 16 | Offensive Line: 8 | Offensive Coordinator: 9 | Last Year: 5
It certainly feels like the Chiefs offense is broken.
Those days of 5,000-yard passing seasons for Patrick Mahomes feel long ago at this point, and after starting his career with four straight top-3 DVOA years offensively, the Chiefs have dipped to 8th, 8th, and 12th since. The targets in the passing game somehow keep getting worse as Travis Kelce ages into oblivion, and the playcalling grows stagnant.
Andy Reid had the chance to bring in a fresh voice with Matt Nagy's exit, but instead, it's Eric Bieniemy, with Reid still calling the plays. That certainly doesn't excite at this point, but it's notable that even the "bad" version of this offense has still effectively been top-8 the last three seasons, outside of the Mahomes injury.
The high-flying passing attack may not be back anytime soon, but Kansas City might be able to find some help in its run game.
The rushing attack had a surprisingly strong Success Rate but couldn't find any explosives with a lackluster set of backs. Kenneth Walker could be just the fix with his ability to break a long one at any point.
The offensive line that's fallen off in this same downswing should also be headed back in the right direction too, and that No. 1 ceiling is always still accessible as long as Mahomes is on the field.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: 3 | Skill positions: 5 | Offensive Line: 20 | Offensive Coordinator: 27 | Last Year: 9
I've found this offense frustrating for years, mainly because it sure doesn't seem like the Bengals make it easy on themselves.
While the rest of the league gets creative with the run game, sends players into motion to find defensive tells, and plays under center with playaction to open up the defense, the Bengals continue to remain largely allergic, preferring to just let Joe Burrow do everything himself.
There are signs that that might finally be changing in Cincinnati.
The Bengals found a strong run game, finishing 6th in DVOA, and return all five offensive line starters for the first time in the Burrow era. They're also showing a stronger commitment to playing Burrow under center, including in preseason games, which could create some easy button yardage for an offense flush with talent.
Not that a team with Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins needed much help!
Even with Burrow missing half the season twice in recent years, the Bengals have finished 4th, 11th, 5th, and 13th in DVOA the last four years — in other words, top-5 when Burrow is on the field, even before adding this improved rushing attack and changing offensive philosophy.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback: 9 | Skill positions: 21 | Offensive Line: 4 | Offensive Coordinator: 4 | Last Year: 18
The Chargers, on the other hand, are a team I desperately want to be in on. There's just so much to like.
Justin Herbert has always flashed all the skills. Omarion Hampton is healthy again, with new FB Alec Ingold and TE Charlie Kolar set up to help Herbert out behind a talented offensive line that finally has its stud tackles healthy. And now Mike McDaniel is here to lead the offense and maximize Ladd McConkey and the entire receiving crew.
At its best, this could be a top-3 offense with all of those pieces working in unison — but how often, if ever, will we get to see that best version of the Chargers offense?
L.A. has already lost C Tyler Biadasz for the season, off on the wrong foot for a line that never finds its way through the season healthy, and for all the talent Herbert brings, he's only once led a top-10 DVOA offense.
McDaniel has found multiple iterations of creative offense but finished an average of 14th in DVOA in four Miami seasons, twice in the top-7 but twice at 22nd or worse.
McDaniel and Herbert are so good that there's a weirdly safe floor, but the floor may not be as high as it first seems, and the ceiling will take some time to gel. Don't be surprised if the Chargers look like one of the best offenses in the league by season's end, but it's unlikely they'll start that way.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: 4 | Skill positions: 22 | Offensive Line: 15 | Offensive Coordinator: 21 | Last Year: 1
A year ago in this column it was the Ravens at No. 1 in the predictions coming off a season where, like the Rams, they led the league in both Rushing and Passing DVOA with a historically great offense. Then Lamar Jackson played most of the season hurt and Baltimore fell out of the top-10 entirely.
But even in what felt like a lost season, the Ravens still finished 11th, and they've had a consistent top-5 rushing attack every season in the Lamar era — including last year, when he couldn't even add much to the attack with his legs.
That rushing attack, led by King Derrick Henry, should continue to be the staple of this new offense under OC Declan Doyle. He'll call plays for the first time and is expected to be something in the Ben Johnson tree, where the rushing attack should provide a floor and create less frequent but efficient passing opportunities, the sort of role Jackson has thrived in.
This is a wide variance offense with Jackson needing to show he's healthy again, on top of a remade interior offensive line and the unknowns with Doyle, but there's still potential to finish near top as long as Jackson's problems last year were mostly health related.
Tier 4 — The Sky's the Limit
10. Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: 5 | Skill positions: 12 | Offensive Line: 28 | Offensive Coordinator: 8 | Last Year: 3
The Packers' offensive floor under Matt LaFleur has been higher than you think.
In the last seven seasons, LaFleur has never finished worse than 11th offensively, and that was his last year with Aaron Rodgers, with an average finish around 5th and all three Jordan Love seasons top-6.
That's pretty incredible considering one of those years was Love's debut and that he's been missing for parts of multiple seasons too, and yet the Packers have finished top-4 in passing all three Love years too.
Despite all that, this remains a run-heavy offense, and that's where the caution comes in this year with Josh Jacobs a bit uncertain and an offensive line that looks bottom-5 in the league.
Add in a thinner offense, especially while Tucker Kraft rehabs, and there's certainly reason to expect this group to be closer to LaFleur's floor.
11. New England Patriots
Quarterback: 6 | Skill positions: 9 | Offensive Line: 21 | Offensive Coordinator: 15 | Last Year: 23
This would actually represent a pretty significant drop for the Patriots after finishing 3rd in DVOA last season, and almost all of that success was due to an MVP performance from Drake Maye and an explosive downfield passing attack.
That attack now adds AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs to the mix, a perfectly complementary pair that really put the rest of the WR room in place, and that should feel like liftoff for this team if Maye keeps chucking it as well as he has.
We did see Maye slow down later in the season though, particularly in the playoffs, and this offense isn't getting a ton from its thunder-and-lightning rushing attack, while the offensive line also remains below average.
Josh McDaniels has not stood out as a playcaller unless he gets elite QB play, so this thing hinges entirely on Maye replicating what he achieved last season.
12. Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: 17 | Skill positions: 3 | Offensive Line: 13 | Offensive Coordinator: 13 | Last Year: 7
For all the Kevin O'Connell hype, the Vikings offense has averaged 22nd in offensive DVOA in his four years without a top-14 finish — but this unit looks set up to be the best and most complete one to date.
It has to start with healthy seasons from Kyler Murray and the offensive line. Murray can be a volatile QB, but there's little question he's more talented than the options Minnesota has had in recent years otherwise, and this Vikings line saw a big investment and has real top-10 potential, especially if LT Christian Darrisaw can finally stay healthy.
Minnesota hasn't really had a good run game yet under KOC, but that could also change with the addition of Frank Smith to the staff and a new scheme that seems to be unlocking things. If that run game provides a floor and Murray and a healthy line can unlock the passing game to Justin Jefferson and all those weapons, the long tails to this offense truly point upward.
With even B+ seasons from Murray, O'Connell, and the line, this Vikings offense has top-5 Shanahan-type potential.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: 12 | Skill positions: 16 | Offensive Line: 2 | Offensive Coordinator: 17 | Last Year: 15
Tampa Bay is a tough offense to gauge.
The Bucs finished 7th in DVOA two years ago with Liam Coen leading the offense but were around 20th in the years before and after, including last season.
That offense was tough to figure out too. Tampa was pretty good early on with Baker Mayfield drawing MVP attention with wins against the Texans, Seahawks, and 49ers, but then Mayfield got hurt and the rest of the injuries at receiver and on the offensive line caught up and everything fell apart.
Maybe the magic was just Mayfield with Coen that one season, but that also happened to be the healthiest year for this offensive line, one I think can be the best in the league with everyone out there. That line could open up the rushing attack for OC Zac Robinson, and there are enough receiving options — even without Mike Evans — for Mayfield to push this offense back into the top 10.
Tier 5 — This Would Be Extremely Disappointing
14. Detroit Lions
Quarterback: 18 | Skill positions: 2 | Offensive Line: 17 | Offensive Coordinator: 18 | Last Year: 11
There are something like 18 offenses that fans might like to squeeze into the top 10, but this set of five ends up closer to league average than anything else.
That would certainly be a huge disappointment for the Lions, but I continue to worry about things tilting slowly more and more in the wrong direction for this franchise.
Ben Johnson is long gone, but it's clear that his absence has left a hole on this team. Last year's playcalling was up and down, and new OC Drew Petzing is a real question mark after turbulent times in Arizona.
Detroit's offensive line was best in the league two years ago but opens the season closer to average now with C Cade Mays injured, and the Lions will also miss David Montgomery this season.
A once elite rushing attack under Johnson dropped to 10th last season and could fall even further, and if that stable floor isn't there, that means more passing for Jared Goff, with potential more inside pressure behind a weaker line and without Johnson's miracle playcalling.
There's probably not a disaster scenario looming here for an offense that only fell to 7th without Johnson last season, but you can see where things moving in the wrong direction has really set this up to be a bit of a house of cards for Detroit.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: 11 | Skill positions: 13 | Offensive Line: 30 | Offensive Coordinator: 5 | Last Year: 19
Liam Coen got a ton of credit for helping the Jaguars win 13 games last season, but the truth is that the offense hardly even took a step forward.
In the three years before Coen's arrival, Trevor Lawrence averaged a No. 14 DVOA offense. With Coen in tow last fall, the Jaguars finished … 14th, a sizable drop from Coen's No. 7 finish the previous season with Tampa Bay.
The Jaguars did see a leap over the final couple months of the season, with Lawrence's play highlighting a talented receiving corps and Parker Washington breaking out to lead the way, but that came against a soft stretch of the schedule.
The real problem here is the faulty offensive line, in the bottom tier of the league for me. That line makes it really difficult to build a rushing attack, especially with lackluster runners, and it severely caps the ceiling for this offense — much like the Bengals in recent years.
It will be up to Coen and Lawrence to provide the difference.
16. Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: 15 | Skill positions: 10 | Offensive Line: 5 | Offensive Coordinator: 30 | Last Year: 6
I'm not going to make too many Philadelphia friends ranking this offense league average, but I could not be less excited about Jalen Hurts in new OC Sean Mannion's offense.
I'm well aware of the number of wins and Super Bowls Hurt has during his Eagles tenure. He's also played behind the league's best line that entire time with usually awesome weapons, and despite all of that, Philadelphia has averaged a No. 11 DVOA offense with just one top-9 finish ever under Hurts.
That's just not good enough for an offense this loaded, and the passing attack has been capped at 12th-to-14th over the last three years — and now they don't have AJ Brown.
The rushing attack has also slowly fallen off before plummeting to 24th last season, a gradual decay that closely reflects the loss of Hurts' value as a runner as well.
Brown's absence is huge and leaves this WR corps shorthanded, and Hurts does not feel like the right fit for the sort of attacking Mannion wants to do over the middle of the field.
More passing could help a run-heavy team in theory, but not if that's with a QB that can't provide efficient passing behind an offensive line that's not quite as dominant as it once was.
At the end of the day, it's really hard to make a serious case that this Eagles offense can finish in the top quarter of the league.
17. Denver Broncos
Quarterback: 20 | Skill positions: 17 | Offensive Line: 1 | Offensive Coordinator: 22 | Last Year: 22
Denver's offense has been remarkably average during Sean Payton's tenure at 15th-to-19th in three seasons, an admittedly solid turnout considering that's been played with the corpse of Russell Wilson and then the first two years of Bo Nix at quarterback.
Payton has well established a floor, but his offense in recent years has been capped with a glass ceiling.
Jaylen Waddle is here to break through that ceiling — his speed is the perfect fit for this offense and exactly what this WR room needs. He should add a real vertical stretch to an offense that needed it, and Nix has had a surprisingly good deep ball.
The X-factor here is new OC Davis Webb, who takes over playcalling from Payton in a surprising twist.
It's possible that helps Denver push past that glass ceiling with a creative new identity, but it could remove that safe floor Payton has established.
18. Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: 28 | Skill positions: 18 | Offensive Line: 3 | Offensive Coordinator: 6 | Last Year: 26
It's hard to argue with what the Colts did during the first part of last season, when they were at or near the top of virtually every offensive metric.
Even once Daniel Jones got injured and things fell apart the back half of the year, this offense still finished 5th in DVOA and top-7 in both rushing and passing.
That's a huge credit to what Shane Steichen has done setting his team up for success, and it's buoyed by the outstanding play of the offensive line and Jonathan Taylor's great success behind it.
Last year was the ceiling, and the run-heavy attack sets the floor, but it all depends on Jones making everything go and that's where I get off the hype train. Even in that great offense, Jones still had pretty pedestrian metrics, and now he's coming off a late-season Achilles tear.
I'm projecting the Colts near their floor because I just can't get there with Jones off an Achilles injury. We saw Indy's ceiling, but I'm not convinced it will get it back.
Tier 6 — Squint and You Can Make a Real Case
19. Washington Commanders
Quarterback: 14 | Skill positions: 20 | Offensive Line: 29 | Offensive Coordinator: 23 | Last Year: 17
It's tough to get a real grasp on the Commanders offense after a lost season with Jayden Daniels injured much of the year.
Daniels was outstanding as a rookie, but he's not getting a ton of help and won't again this year with star pass-protecting LT Laremy Tunsil out for the season.
That could already be a death knell for this unit, but new OC David Blough will try to show otherwise. It looks like he'll hope to keep some of Kliff Kingsbury's greatest hits while also sprinkling in the Ben Johnson offense, and that's certainly intriguing enough if Daniels can actually stay upright on the field and lead the way.
20. Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback: 23 | Skill positions: 26 | Offensive Line: 21 | Offensive Coordinator: 10 | Last Year: 21
This might as well have been called the Klint Kubiak section, because these next three teams are all Kubiak-coded.
Kubiak joins the Raiders and that's why I have Vegas jumping into the top 20 after a steady six-year decline on offense and a disaster the last two seasons. We've seen how good Kubiak is at building economical running games even with subpar offensive line talent, and that's a serious floor raiser for an offense like this.
It looks like Ashton Jeanty should be fine after a weekend injury scare. Jeanty and rookie Mike Washington Jr. could build an outstanding rushing attack behind a return to health from Kolton Miller next to free-agent signing Tyler Linderbaum on the offensive line, especially if Kubiak can work his magic there.
Now add in Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza running point, with Brock Bowers the lead target man feasting over the middle off playaction while Jack Bech and others clean up underneath, and you can really see the vision in Las Vegas.
It may take a few months or even season to get there, but Kubiak has found success at each of his recent stops, and he's got the tools to do it again with the Raiders.
21. Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: 19 | Skill positions: 14 | Offensive Line: 16 | Offensive Coordinator: 29 | Last Year: 27
Las Vegas's gain is Seattle's loss, unfortunately.
It's easy to forget after a Super Bowl title, but the Seahawks were not expected to be any good offensively last season — their offensive line was supposed to be among the worst in the league.
Kubiak helped that unit perform at league average or better, but now we need to see if they can do it without him, especially with no Kenneth Walker or, for most of the season, Zach Charbonnet at RB — just rookie Jadarian Price.
Seattle racked up gaudy numbers early last season with Sam Darnold throwing deep to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but that dried up quite a bit over the back half of the season and left this offense somewhat wanting, as it was mostly the defense that led the title push.
That defense can really only be worse this season, and with a worse rushing attack, that means worse game scripts for Darnold and more forced passing situations. That's not a great thing behind an offensive line that's still weak on the interior. New OC Brian Fleury is unproven, too.
This is probably just an average Seahawks offense even after a championship, but if you had to put Seattle either top 10 or bottom 10, there's little question which direction you should be leaning.
22. New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: 24 | Skill positions: 27 | Offensive Line: 24 | Offensive Coordinator: 11 | Last Year: 31
The Saints were actually Kubiak's previous stop before Seattle, and they're an interesting before-and-after look for Seattle fans.
For all the hype New Orleans got late last season with Tyler Shough turning it on late against a soft stretch of defenses, the Saints still finished just 27th in DVOA for the season. That included dropping from above average to an ugly 30th in the rushing attack without Kubiak around to set the floor, and it should give some pause to all the Shough and Kellen Moore hype you've been reading this offseason.
There's no questioning the talent on this offense. Chris Olave and Jordan Tyson are immensely talented at receiver, and the offensive line has seen a huge investment and provides a ton of upside.
Unfortunately, the upside on this offense is equaled by the health risk.
Already Tyson will be out awhile, and the line never seems to stay healthy, while Shough has a long injury history himself. The Saints need to prove they can actually take the next step for a full season with Moore and the young talent, because until then, the entire thing remains imaginary.
Tier 7 — Definitely Not Good, But Shouldn't Be Terrible
23. Houston Texans
Quarterback: 16 | Skill positions: 24 | Offensive Line: 25 | Offensive Coordinator: 28 | Last Year: 20
It was a miserable playoffs for C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, and it sure feels like everything has gone south for the Ohio State product since a surprisingly great rookie season.
But the truth is that things have never actually been as bad as they've felt, nor perhaps as good.
Houston finished 14th in Offensive DVOA in Stroud's rookie season, then 26th and 19th the last two years. That's an average finish of around 20th, not great, but certainly not as bad as it's felt. That also includes a surprisingly average jump to 19th in rushing last season with no real RBs or offensive line.
Maybe OC Nick Caley found a few answers after all, and maybe there's still hope for Stroud. He'll look early and often for Nico Collins and new targets Kendrick Bourne and Kayshon Boutte — the floor here may not be as bad as it seems.
The question is whether Houston can tap into any ceiling.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: 30 | Skill positions: 19 | Offensive Line: 18 | Offensive Coordinator: 24 | Last Year: 24
The Steelers have repeatedly come up ranked right around league average in this series, at RB, WR, TE, and then offensive line. That leaves two other parts of the offense — the most important two, of course — and that's Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy's playcalling.
Pittsburgh's offense has ranked right at league average itself in DVOA the last four seasons, so the question is which direction Rodgers and McCarthy pull the Steelers now.
McCarthy will want to throw the deep ball, and maybe Rodgers just wasn't the right fit in Arthur Smith's offense, but it sure looked like the old man was washed and didn't have much left to give.
Unless you think McCarthy and Rodgers can recapture the magic and unleash DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr., it's hard to get too excited.
25. Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: 31 | Skill positions: 7 | Offensive Line: 24 | Offensive Coordinator: 26 | Last Year: 12
The skill players for the Cardinals give you plenty to be excited about.
Rookie Jeremiyah Love leads what could be the most talented RB room in the league when healthy, and Trey McBride has developed into the most dangerous pass-catching TE in the league, while Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson still have breakout potential as well.
Unfortunately, we're not playing fantasy football.
Arizona's offensive line remains weak, especially the right side, and the Cardinals probably don't have an NFL starting QB since Jacoby Brissett is much more of a career journeyman backup.
That leaves a pretty uncertain floor, and unless Mike LaFleur can match his brother's pedigree and not just his name, it may not mean a ton of ceiling either.
LaFleur hasn't called much NFL offense before and struggled to find results with Zach Wilson and the Jets in his one big opportunity. There's more talent here this time around but it may not be enough in a loaded NFC West.
Tier 8 — The Bottom Could Drop Out
26. Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: 29 | Skill positions: 6 | Offensive Line: 11 | Offensive Coordinator: 20 | Last Year: 13
Like Arizona, Atlanta has all of its skill positions settled with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts as good as any triplets in the league. The Falcons even have a talented offensive line, borderline top 10.
The problem again comes at coaching and quarterback.
Kevin Stefanski's offense has bottomed out in recent years when he can't get competent QB play, and it's hard to imagine him finding much of that from Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.
Tagovailoa can barely throw the ball past the edge of your screen at this point, and Penix has not had any real NFL success and is coming off yet another major injury. Even the bull case for either of those guys is still a very limited ceiling, and the bear case ends up with this team having no QB and no real leader.
If that's the case, like the other teams in this tier, the bottom could fully drop out.
27. New York Giants
Quarterback: 25 | Skill positions: 29 | Offensive Line: 19 | Offensive Coordinator: 32 | Last Year: 30
The upside case for the Giants is easy enough to imagine — it involves healthy seasons from New York's four most important players: Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, and Andrew Thomas.
The Giants proved they could effectively run the football last season with a young, improving line and Thomas finally mostly healthy, and Dart gives this offense an X-factor that can create with his legs or hit the deep ball down the field.
The problem is keeping all four of those guys healthy at once, and the other problem is new OC Matt Nagy.
Nagy was an uninspired hire by John Harbaugh to say the least after years of tanking the Bears and then, somehow, the Chiefs. Perhaps Nagy can provide a floor for an offense that just needs a way forward, but it would almost be more enticing if he just got out of the way.
28. Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: 27 | Skill positions: 28 | Offensive Line: 27 | Offensive Coordinator: 14 | Last Year: 25
There's not a ton to get excited about in Carolina, especially with the offensive line so banged up to start the season.
The Panthers will be without both starting tackles indefinitely and are banged up elsewhere, and that's bad news for a QB in Bryce Young who's certainly improved but only enough to become a low-level, just-competent starter.
That's about how this entire offense feels — just good enough to not be the worst and run it back, just enough to not get tossed out and replaced.
Dave Canales has led three NFL offenses now to 20th in DVOA in Tampa Bay, then 24th and 25th in Carolina. That's not bad!
Unfortunately, it isn't very good either.
29. New York Jets
Quarterback: 21 | Skill positions: 25 | Offensive Line: 23 | Offensive Coordinator: 31 | Last Year: 29
Believe it or not, the Jets offense actually ranked top-21 in each of the last two seasons!
New York's got young talent all over the place on offense — at every skill position and all over the offensive line — with two huge, glaring exceptions.
That would be Geno Smith and new OC Frank Reich — and to believe in this offense, you have to somehow talk yourself into both sides of that equation.
I'm a Geno believer, but he could have a tough time behind this line and might just be washed, and Reich's last two NFL offenses both finished bottom-2 in DVOA so it just feels like the NFL may have passed one or both of these two by.
Like the other teams from this tier, that leaves a distinct lack of upside, plus a floor that may drop all the way out to the bottom.
Tier 9 — No Ceiling in Sight
30. Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: 24 | Skill positions: 30 | Offensive Line: 31 | Offensive Coordinator: 25 | Last Year: 28
The Titans are trying out here, bringing in rookie Carnell Tate and veteran Wan'Dale Robinson to give Cam Ward some targets for his sophomore season.
That's a good start, but it's still a long ways away for an offense that was downright terrible last season, and though Ward passed the eye test occasionally with his arm, he failed virtually every metrics test available and hasn't looked much better this preseason.
OC Brian Daboll has coached a long time in this league and he's had precious little success outside of a couple years Josh Allen was mostly responsible for. The Titans' upside depends entirely on Daboll developing Ward into a real NFL quarterback.
A tepid run game behind one of the league's worst offensive lines isn't going to help much either.
It's all on Ward and the new receivers.
31. Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: 26 | Skill positions: 32 | Offensive Line: 26 | Offensive Coordinator: 19 | Last Year: 14
Miami's upside case is the exact opposite.
The one great Dolphins player on offense is De'Von Achane, and their hope for any sort of offensive identity has to rest in a continued emphasis of a rushing attack that was surprisingly great last year under Mike McDaniel.
McDaniel is gone now, but most of the promising offensive line is still here, and so is new OC Bobby Slowik, who coached under McDaniel a year ago. Add in QB Malik Willis. While the jury's still out on what his arm can do, he should be a serious running threat.
Slowik has been the butt of many jokes but, in hindsight, got the best out of C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense. Miami could find a real floor if it establishes Achane and the run game, but picturing a real ceiling for more than that is another story altogether, especially with no real NFL pass-catchers on the roster.
32. Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: 32 | Skill positions: 30 | Offensive Line: 32 | Offensive Coordinator: 12 | Last Year: 32
If you rank dead last in both quarterback and offensive line, there's a pretty good chance you're going to end up at the bottom of the overall offense rankings.
Here we are with Cleveland, and it's ugly.
Deshaun Watson is starting for some reason no one really knows, but it's not like Shedeur Sanders has really proven to be a particularly exciting option either.
It's a shame, really, because the Browns have some genuinely interesting weapons, especially rookie receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. New Browns coach Todd Monken has had a ton of success finding all sorts of different offense in the past.
Any hope in Cleveland likely rests on Monken finding ways to get the ball from center to QB to weapons as quickly as possible and hoping they can simply make something out of nothing.
Betting Takeaways
1. Offense wins in the NFL.
If you look up last year's top-21 DVOA offenses, every single one of those teams won eight or more games except for the Chiefs and Bengals, both of whom lost their star QB for a stretch.
That's a remarkable floor for wins, simply correlated to have a competent offense.
By contrast, only one of the 11 teams beyond that ranking made the playoffs, and that was the 8-9 Panthers in a depleted NFC South.
Offense remains king in the NFL. Move the ball and score points or you're dead.
2. There's a lot of firepower at the top of the NFC.
If you look back at the top of the rankings, you'll find four NFC teams in the top-5: Rams, 49ers, Cowboys, and Bears.
Any NFC team hoping to make the Super Bowl is likely to have to face at least a couple of those offenses in the playoffs, which means you better have enough firepower to match them for at least one game — or a superstar defense with enough firepower to stop it.
That's not the best news for the No. 21 offense in Seattle, but that's exactly why Mike Macdonald's attacking defense is so important on the other side of the ball.
3. The AFC is at the other end of the spectrum, then clogged up in the middle.
The bottom four in the rankings are the Jets, Titans, Dolphins, and Browns, so a good AFC defense might stockpile a bunch of easy wins just on defense alone.
Over half of the AFC, though, sits between 6th and 20th in the rankings. That's a pretty big cluster of teams, and clusters imply variance.
Football is a wonky game. The ball takes a funny bounce, injuries hit at the wrong time, a kick hits a crossbar, and suddenly what looked like the 17th-best offense ends up 8th-best and in the AFC Championship Game.
Clusters of teams means opportunity for bettors to look for long shots.
4. Speaking of clusters of teams, the NFC North and AFC West are especially close together.
The entire NFC North ranks between 5th and 14th, all powerful but none quite at the top. That could make for some high-scoring shootouts where a single defensive stop or two makes the difference, and it could make that division dangerous and unpredictable.
The AFC West isn't quite as clustered, but it's close with every team between 6th and 20th.
When teams are this clustered, defense or coaching can make the difference, or even just sheer luck. Watch for long-shot opportunity.
5. The best division news here is for the Bucs and the Cowboys.
There are only two divisions where one team sits far out ahead of all the rest offensively: the NFC South and the NFC East.
The Bucs ranked 13th and were pushing top-10, while everyone else in the NFC South is more like bottom-10 and trending in the wrong direction. That could provide some sneaky value for Tampa Bay in the division.
The gap is even bigger for the Cowboys, who came in at 4th with the entire rest of the division at 16th or worse.
If Philadelphia's offense is really that much worse than Dallas', that's a huge margin of error to allow the Cowboys to contend for that division crown.
