A lot of people love to mock the preseason, but I personally love it, and I’m glad it’s back.
It’s not just that football is finally on again (although let’s be real… that’s a big part of it). I genuinely enjoy watching rookies we’ve been talking about for months finally get live NFL reps and seeing how position battles start to shake out. Sure, there are plenty of overreactions this time of year, but let’s not forget: some camp and preseason surprises actually do translate into regular-season impact. It happens every year.
And of course … we get to bet on it.
Over the last four preseasons, once I started taking this market seriously and developed my current approach, I’ve gone 61-34 (64%) on sides and totals. My philosophy? Treat all four quarters like separate matchups. Each quarter often features completely different QBs and units, which gives us a unique edge that doesn’t exist in the regular season. That’s why you’ll usually see me focus more on 1Q/1H and in-game bets, although I still fire on full game lines when it makes sense.
I’ll also be posting QB charts for every game. With that, let’s kick off the 2025 preseason with the HOF Game:
Quarterback Usage
Chargers
The Chargers have been refreshingly transparent. Trey Lance is expected to start, play the entire first half, and possibly the first drive of the second half. From there, it’ll be rookie DJ Uiagalelei closing it out. Taylor Heinicke is expected to sit unless there’s an emergency.
Lions
Detroit appears to be letting Kyle Allen and Hendon Hooker battle it out for the backup QB job. Allen will get the start, so Hooker should be expected to play the second half.
Player/Team Notes
Both teams are resting most of their starters, but the rookie usage is different. The Lions are resting first- and second-round picks Tyleik Williams and Tate Ratledge, while the Chargers are playing theirs, including Omarion Hampton, Tre Harris, Jamaree Caldwell and Kyle Kennard. That could give the Chargers a slight edge, especially in the first half when the QB matchup is fairly even.
Trey Lance is coming off that brutal five-interception outing from last preseason, but his turnover-worthy play rate (3.8%) was right around league average, per PFF. He has real rushing upside, a valuable trait in preseason when protection and receiver play are often shakier.
For the Lions, Allen is a decent pocket passer but has no scrambling upside, so I'm not expecting a lot of points from the Lions with him under center.
In the second half, Uiagalelei will take over for the Chargers. He was once a top recruit but had a bumpy college career across three different schools and never quite lived up to the hype. This is a shot to flash something in front of NFL coaches and potentially earn a practice squad spot.
However, I’m expecting an ultra run-heavy, clock-draining approach once he enters the game, which isn't exactly a setup for offensive fireworks.
Hooker brings his own rushing upside, but he struggled last preseason in terms of taking sacks; he was sacked on 9% of his dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate across the last three preseasons. It wouldn’t surprise me if rookie Kyle Kennard gets home for a sack in the first half.
NFL Picks: Hall of Fame Game
🔒 Favorite Pick
Chargers 1H ML (-115, BetMGM)
I think they have a slight edge, especially considering the more aggressive rookie usage. Plus, there’s always the added bonus of an 8–10% chance this game is tied at the half, which would not result in a loss.
👀 Watchlist
I’ll be monitoring the second-half under, especially if the total lands in the 15.5-16.5 range. You’ll get an alert in the Action App if/when I post something official.
