The Divisional Round kicks off with a pair of marquee matchups as the Buffalo Bills take on the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks.
For my top Divisional Round Saturday NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting James Cook, Curtis Samuel, Brian Robinson, and Ricky Pearsall.
James Cook
Less Than 2.5 Receptions
The Bills' receiving corps is devastated by injuries, and conventional thinking would lead to an uptick in volume for running back James Cook, who barely leaves the field.
However, that has not been the case under any circumstance in which the Buffalo offense has been in this season.
Cook averages just 2.8 targets per game, and while he hauls in 79 percent of them, his ceiling is clear and capped consistently. He has recorded fewer than 2.5 receptions in 11 of 18 games this season, including each of the last six games.
Against a Denver defense that allowed the fewest receptions per game to opposing running backs, fading Cook against is a strong start to our plays.
Curtis Samuel
More Than 0.5 Receptions
While the Bills lack options at wide receiver heading into their Divisional Round matchup, they are getting healthier as Curtis Samuel is returning from injured reserve and playing his first game since mid-November.
Prior to his injury, Samuel had a small but consistent role where he recorded at least one catch in five of six games and subsequently went over each time.
We should see him involved in the offense, given the lack of depth the Bills have heading into this matchup, and it's highly likely that just one reception will cash this play for us.
Brian Robinson
More Than 5.5 Rushing Yards
We move to the late game and target another undervalued offensive asset in 49ers running back Brian Robinson. Last week's Wild Card matchup marked just the third time all season that Robinson did not receive a carry.
However, much of that has to do with the 49ers' lack of possession. They did not have the ball much at all and only ran the ball 15 times. He is bound to get back in on the action, and his lack of usage has created an overreaction.
Tonight, they face a Seahawks defense that allowed the lowest yards per rush in the NFL, but Robinson, being the change of back, has had success, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He maintained that with his two carries against Seattle two weeks ago, and with two carries being his floor, we should see him exceed this total for the 16th time in 19 games.
Ricky Pearsall
More Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
The 49ers get a boost to their offense with the return of Ricky Pearsall.
Pearsall has only played nine games this season, but when he's been on the field, he's made a big impact.
He's gone over this total in six of his nine games, posting an average of 57 yards per game. Now, he is going to play through a knee injury, but he's been practicing consistently and has the route tree to exceed this total with a handful of catches.
Look for Pearsall to make a handful of big plays as the 49ers desperately need his explosiveness in this matchup.
