There's no better game for prop betting than the Super Bowl. With so many markets, lines have plenty of time to move before Seahawks vs Patriots kick off on Sunday, Feb. 8.
Thus, I'm wasting no time and getting in an early NFL prop bet for Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson.
Here's how I'm betting on Henderson for Seahawks vs Patriots in Super Bowl 60.
NFL Prop Bets Super Bowl: TreVeyon Henderson
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receptions (-130; bet to -165)
TreVeyon Henderson got phased out of the Patriots' offense for the most part in the AFC Championship Game, but a lot of that had to do with the snowy conditions. With the Patriots playing with the lead, head coach Mike Vrabel trusted Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions.
With plenty of time to prepare in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not (they are 4.5-point underdogs), I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He wasn't necessarily used a ton, but he ran 17 routes and was targeted three times.
This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (fifth most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage.
And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single-high looks.
We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high-pressure defense, and while everyone's targets per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Drake Maye is under pressure of nine regular Patriot pass-catchers.
With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs.
I'd play this to -165, meaning all current available prices at the time I dropped the pick in the Action App are playable.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Nick in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
