NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings — are out for the first time after Week 1 of the 2026 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates. When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
This season, we've introduced Luck Rankings Version 3.1, which is just a slight modification to last year's methodology. For more on the changes, check out our season primer to understand what's different and how to use it to bet on the NFL.
For Version 3.1, when the Luck Score is 1.9 or higher, unlucky teams are 82-43 against the closing spread — the hardest lines to beat.
That equates to a 65.6% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of 125 games. This sample size is reduced from Version 3.0, where there were over 240 games because of the methodology changes described in the primer above in order to give us a more confident set of games.
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 2. Be sure to check back on Wednesday when I break down the Week 2 luck-based sides and totals.
NFL Week 2 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets, while the opposite may be true for unlucky teams.
