I've already bet three spreads for NFL Week 3, and I'm looking to add three more.
Among the games for my NFL Week 3 previews: Jets vs Buccaneers, Packers vs Browns, Rams vs Eagles, Cowboys vs Bears, Chiefs vs Giants and Colts vs Titans.
You can also find my favorite anytime touchdown parlay lottery ticket featuring Gunnar Helm and Kareem Hunt.
Let's get into my NFL Week 3 picks and predictions for Sunday, September 21.
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
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Jets vs Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has burned me in the final minute in each of the first two games. Hopefully, that won't happen again with a touchdown in the back pocket (cue the Bucs' last-second touchdown in a tie game).
While Mayfield has been super clutch, he's also been a bit lucky with numerous dropped interceptions. Only Tua Tagovailoa has more turnover-worthy plays (7) than Mayfield (6), who has played one fewer game. While Mayfield has yet to throw an interception, Tagovailoa has four. We may see some regression on that front.
More importantly, Tampa will come into this game extremely shorthanded on offense (on a short week). Not only do Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan remain out, but rookie Emeka Egbuka, who has looked great, has been dealing with hip and groin injuries. If that's the case, Sauce Gardner can help neutralize Mike Evans, and the rest of the weapons don't really scare anybody.
The Bucs could lean on Bucky Irving and the running game here, but that might prove more difficult with the current state of the offensive line. Not only will the Bucs have to make do without both starting tackles (Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke), but they also just placed starting right guard Cody Mauch on IR.
Additionally, guard Mike Jordan didn't practice on Friday, so that means Tampa could have two new guards as well, with their center already kicked out to left tackle for Wirfs.
As a result, the Bucs won't have a single offensive lineman in their projected starting position coming into the season. That's especially not ideal on a short week, especially with Mayfield potentially a bit limited after getting nicked toward the end of Monday's game in Houston.
Jermaine Johnson won't go for the Jets, but this still should look messy for Tampa.
Defensively, the Bucs are much healthier, but did lose starting defensive end Calijah Kancey to injury. This is a solid but not spectacular defense that ranks right around the Jets on the season in net yards per play.
Everybody wants to bet the Bucs after two thrilling covers. However, they could easily be 0-2 and are now in a much worse shape regarding their roster.
Meanwhile, the Jets should have won their opener before laying an egg last week against the Bills in a game where Buffalo completely out-coached them from start to finish. I expect some schematic tweaks on both sides of the ball this week for the desperate Jets, who will turn to Tyrod Taylor to save them from a disastrous 0-3 start.
There just isn't that much of a downgrade from Justin Fields to Taylor, who is one of the league's better backups. For his career, Taylor owns a 34-21-4 (62%) ATS record, including 7-3-1 when catching seven-plus. Most importantly, he doesn't hold the ball as long as Fields and doesn't turn it over, which is key in what profiles as a lower-scoring game.
In fact, among qualified quarterbacks, Taylor has the fourth-lowest interception rate of all time at 1.6%, trailing only Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert.
Running into the teeth of the Tampa offense won't pay the bills, so the Jets will have to rely a bit more on their passing attack on Sunday — and Taylor may be better equipped to run the offense from that standpoint.
Trending: Week 3 underdogs have cashed at a 55% rate historically, with 0-2 underdogs enjoying even more success at 41-21-1 (66.1%) ATS since 2010, following the Dolphins cover on Thursday with an average cover margin of 2.7 points.
Pick: Jets +7
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Packers vs Browns
Are the Packers elite?
I certainly hope so for the Super Bowl future I placed back in May. They certainly look the part on both sides of the ball so far, but it has only been two games.
I always say: In general, most recreational bettors would be better off going into a coma for the first two weeks of the season when it comes to betting Week 3.
This is just too many points for what looks like an elite Browns defense that held the Bengals (with QB Joe Burrow) to two net yards in the second half and then completely neutralized the Ravens offense in Baltimore. Don't be fooled by that final score, as Cleveland actually outgained Baltimore 323-242 and finished dead even in yards per play (4.5-4.6).
The Browns can generate pressure at an elite level without blitzing, which could prove problematic for a Green Bay offense that may not come into this one 100% healthy. The Packers are also dealing with injuries at wide receiver and could be without tight end Tucker Kraft.
Placing this bet was certainly scary as the thought of Micah Parsons wreaking havoc on Joe Flacco does send chills up my spine. Still, this Browns offense has a bit more juice than many thought coming into the year, especially with Quinshon Judkins looking pretty good in his debut.
I don't like fading Matt LaFleur with extra time to prepare, but I can't get to this number in a game where points should come at a premium.
Trending: Week 3 home pups of seven or more points have gone 8-3 ATS (72.7%) since 2003, covering by 6.5 points per game on average. Five of the 11 pulled off the outright upset.
Pick: Browns +8.5
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Rams vs Eagles
This was the first bet I placed this week — I just wanted anything over a field goal.
Admittedly, I'm a bit worried I'm selling low on the Eagles after two underwhelming performances to start the year, while also buying the Rams high after two covers against broken offenses in Houston and Tennessee. However, I do still think this is a solid bet at +3.5 or better.
Coming into the season, I had concerns about the health of Matthew Stafford. Well, he's been nearly flawless, so those worries have been put to bed.
This offense looks even better than last year due to the swapping out of Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, which makes LA much more difficult to scheme against.
Puka Nacua is the zone beater, while Adams now gives the Rams a legit man breaker. And one of the two should have a plus matchup against Adoree Jackson, who has statistically been one of the five worst corners in the league through two weeks. After all of the offseason departures, this Eagles defense has certainly taken a step back.
While the defense doesn't look as potent, it's the offense for Philly that might cost them a few games unless there is a material change from a play-calling perspective. It's still early, but we may have a Brian Johnson part two situation after Kellen Moore left for the Big Easy.
There has been zero creativity in the playcalling and absolutely no explosiveness. Philly has only completed two passes of more than 10 yards against a Dallas secondary that just got absolutely torched by the Giants and a Chiefs secondary that has issues on the back end.
Maybe the Eagles have been playing possum through two weeks, but I'm not sure why that would be the case against a division rival and the Chiefs. Maybe they open it up more this week and attack Emmanuel Forbes, but I need to see it before I believe it against a Rams defense that is getting an abundance of pressure without blitzing.
Lastly, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a few tush push penalties after all of the discourse this week surrounding the controversial play, in addition to head coach Sean McVay reaching out to the league office. Maybe there's one or two on the defense and offense.
Well, penalties against the defense aren't nearly as detrimental as those against the offense in that situation. The Eagles were almost guaranteed to convert anyway. However, a penalty or two on the offense could turn a touchdown into a field goal or kill a drive that likely would have continued.
Give me the hook and some Rams revenge.
Trending: McVay is 18-11-2 ATS (62.1%) as a 'dog of 3-plus. He's also excelled in the eastern time zone with a 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) mark, covering by five points per game.
Pick: Rams +3.5
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Potential Add: Cowboys vs Bears
This is an all-in spot for the Bears after starting 0-2 following an embarrassing loss to the Lions. While the Bears should probably be sitting at 1-1, the Cowboys needed a miracle to avoid falling to 0-2 themselves last week.
Everything screams to me buy low on the Bears at home with some potential weather. However, I have two major concerns:
- Enormous kicker mismatch
- Chicago's secondary injuries
The Bears will be without Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon in addition to three depth corner pieces. That leaves Tyrique Stevenson (who has allowed a perfect passer rating) and likely Nick McCloud and Nahshon Wright. That's not great, especially against Dak Prescott and his talented group of wideouts.
Under Dennis Allen, the Bears are going to play a ton of man coverage with a pitiful cornerback room and a front seven that isn't generating pressure. I assume Allen will double Lamb like he did in New Orleans last year, but that could open up the rest of the field for George Pickens and company.
I still may get to the window here as I trust Ben Johnson to carve up this Matt Eberflus defense that won't have the services of DaRon Bland, but I may have to look away while hitting submit.
Trending: Teams coming off a loss of 30-plus points have historically been good buy-low candidates. Since 2003, they have gone 149-121-10 (55.2%) ATS and have cashed at a 60% clip as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal.
Pick: Bears +1
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Potential Add: Colts vs Titans
This is a major adjustment for the Colts, who have looked amazing to start the season with Daniel Jones at quarterback.
However, as I mentioned previously, it's only two games, and we shouldn't completely overreact to a pair of home wins (one coming over the Dolphins and the other due to a leaping penalty).
We have a large data set of much worse play from Daniel Jones. Maybe he just needed to get out of New York, but perhaps it's just a two-game sample size at home.
The Titans haven't looked great and are still poorly coached, although it's an improved operation from the interior offensive line to the special teams with a still solid defense. They will also get a break in terms of defensive pressure faced. The Colts have struggled in that area, while the Rams and Broncos are two of the best.
My primary concern for this one is the Tennessee injury situation. It looks like T'Vondre Sweat won't go again, which is hugely detrimental to its run defense.
Last year, with Sweat on the field, the Titans allowed only 4.2 yards per carry, which would've been a top-10 mark. Without him, they allowed 5.3, which would've been dead last. Their success rate allowed also jumped almost 10% without the former Texas defensive tackle.
Opposing offenses can also double Jeffery Simmons more, which will limit his impact and eventually cause him to wear down, which is exactly what transpired in the fourth quarter against the Rams last week. The Titans also have injuries along the offensive line (Kevin Zeitler is the one to monitor) and in the secondary.
I wouldn't have gotten there at +3 with all of the injury concerns, but I may have to bite for a smaller wager at four or better on the Titans, who are amazingly 0-9 ATS in their past nine home games.
Trending: Tennessee fits one of my favorite early-season trends. In Weeks 2-5, when overreactions can be most extreme, road favorites following an outright win as a home underdog have gone 17-39-1 ATS (30%) with a -5.5 ppg cover margin. That includes 6-16 ATS when favored by more than a FG. Also, when the opposing team has a losing record, these road favorites have gone just 11-29-1 ATS (27.5%).
Pick: Titans +4.5
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Potential Add: Chiefs vs Giants
Honestly, whose offense do you trust more right now?
I know the Chiefs just played the Eagles and Chargers, but this has been going on for multiple seasons. There's just no running game and no explosiveness in the passing game, which makes it extremely difficult for Kansas City to get a material margin on anybody. To wit, the Chiefs haven't covered as a favorite of more than five points in over 600 days (0-7-1 ATS).
Until both Xavier Worthy (whose status I'm monitoring) and Rashee Rice get back, this looks like the same slog of an offense where every first down seems like an arduous task.
I show value at +6.5, but I will wait to see if a seven ever pops on the Sunday night game with a lot of likely public sentiment that the Chiefs can't possibly start 0-3.
Trending: When two 0-2 teams meet, underdogs have gone 14-7-1 ATS, covering by four points per game. Dogs of 6-plus in this spot have gone 7-3 ATS with four outright upsets.
Pick: Giants +6.5
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Anytime Touchdown Parlay
Gunnar Helm Anytime TD + Kareem Hunt Anytime TD
