Super Bowl MVP picks are popular among NFL bettors, though many won't start making their wagers until closer to kickoff for Patriots vs. Seahawks.
As one would imagine, quarterbacks Sam Darnold (+125) and Drake Maye (+230) are favorites to win the award, followed by Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+475) and Kenneth Walker III (+650), according to the latest Super Bowl MVP odds from bet365.
There's still plenty of time to decide whether to bet one of these Super Bowl MVP favorites, so I'm taking another approach.
Specifically, I'm using Action PRO's NFL Projections, powered by Sean Koerner and the Action Analytics team, to identify players undervalued in the props market and therefore showing potential to overperform and challenge for the award at long-shot Super Bowl MVP odds.
After doing just this, one player came to the forefront with sleeper potential to win Super Bowl MVP.
Super Bowl MVP Odds, Long-Shot Pick
*Odds as of Wednesday, Jan. 28
As mentioned above, I'm not yet looking at quarterbacks to win Super Bowl MVP due to their very short odds.
In addition, I'm bypassing receivers who are directly related to quarterback performance.
For example, if Smith-Njigba reels in multiple touchdowns against New England, those touchdowns are extremely likely to come via Darnold, pumping his MVP resume as well.
As a result, I turned to Action PRO's two or more touchdown projections with the theory being that a player capable of scoring multiple touchdowns, while not being attached to touchdown receptions, could separate himself from the quarterbacks.
And while odds and projections can certainly evolve and adjust as we get closer to Super Sunday, the player with the largest edge to score two or more touchdowns is exactly what I'm looking for.
Here are the details.
