Super Bowl picks are coming in fast here at Action Network as we have more Seahawks vs Patriots prop bets for the upcoming big game.
For this article, I'm focusing on more general team strengths and weaknesses, and honing in on player and team props that exploit them, including a Drake Maye rushing prop.
Bookmark this page as I continue to add more Super Bowl picks.
Seahawks vs Patriots Prop Bets
Over 4.5 Game Sacks (-140)
Bet on Fri., Jan. 30
There is a lot of value in this sack prop as both teams have quarterbacks who have taken sacks at decent rates.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been sacked 62 times in 20 games, a rate of 3.1 sacks per game. Notably, Maye has taken 4.6 sacks per game against top-12 defenses by sack rate, and has taken five sacks in each playoff game — all to top-12 defenses by sack rate — and Seattle’s defense conveniently ranks 11th in sack rate this season.
The Seahawks have done a better job of protecting Sam Darnold, who has taken just 32 sacks in 19 games, an average of 1.7 sacks per game.
Despite Darnold getting sacked at a lower rate, the Patriots defense has recorded 12 sacks in three playoff games. New England’s defense averages 2.6 sacks/game in games where Robert Spillane and Milton Williams played in full, vs. 1.9 sacks per game otherwise.
Williams is healthy, although Spillane has some injury concerns heading into the Super Bowl.
Still, this game is projected to go a shade over 5.5 sacks in total, with good market value for over 4.5 sacks at -200.
Drake Maye Under 6.5 1Q Rushing Yards (-113)
Bet on Fri., Jan. 30
This pick has a few trends working in its favor.
Drake Maye has stayed under this mark in 14-of-20 games (70%) as well as in 8-of-11 games vs. top-half rush DVOA defenses (72.7%), and in 8-of-9 games vs. top-14 rush DVOA defenses (88.9%).
In case you were wondering, the Seahawks are No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA. Even if Maye scrambles, Seattle allows the 8th-lowest yards per carry when quarterbacks leave the pocket.
The Seahawks are similarly proficient against designed QB runs; they allow a median of three yards to opposing quarterbacks on these plays.
In addition to Seattle’s defensive proficiency on the ground, Maye and the Patriots might have less possession in this game to begin with. The Seahawks are a run-oriented team with a good offense that can move the ball. If Seattle starts with the ball, Maye might only have one possession to hit this mark.
If you only have under 5.5 (-108) at FanDuel, I'd also play that. All the same trends hold.
Julian Love Interception (+800), Coby Bryant Interception (+950)
Bet on Fri., Jan. 30
Last year, I gave out Eagles middle linebacker Oren Burks at 23-1 — their other middle linebacker, Zach Baun, got the interception at 19-1 odds, so I’m not making the mistake of picking just one of the two safeties in this one.
Give me both safeties on Seattle to record an interception.
A few trends bode well for this interception prop — 50% of Maye’s career picks have gone to safeties; Talanoa Hufanga almost had one last week, but he flat-out dropped it.
Maye is sitting at just 0.5 interceptions per game, but Seattle’s defense grabs one interception per game, both right in line with expectations based on passes defended.
Maye is projected to throw 0.78 interceptions. If 40% of interceptions go to safeties and Love is favored over Bryant at a 55/45 rate (based on pass deflections in games both played), then I’m getting fair value at around +550 on Love and +700 on Bryant, and have to play both at their current values.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receptions (-130; bet to -165)
Bet on Mon., Jan. 26
TreVeyon Henderson got phased out of the Patriots' offense for the most part in the AFC Championship Game, but a lot of that had to do with the snowy conditions. With the Patriots playing with the lead, head coach Mike Vrabel trusted Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions.
With plenty of time to prepare in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not (they are 4.5-point underdogs), I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He wasn't necessarily used a ton, but he ran 17 routes and was targeted three times.
This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (fifth most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage.
And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single-high looks.
We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high-pressure defense, and while everyone's targets per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Drake Maye is under pressure of nine regular Patriot pass-catchers.
With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs.
