Super Bowl props are coming in fast here at Action Network as we have more Seahawks vs Patriots player props for the upcoming big game.
Bookmark this page as I continue to add more Super Bowl picks. Below you can find my 10 Super Bowl props for Drake Maye, Cooper Kupp, Rhamondre Stevenson and more. You can also find my Super Bowl MVP pick.
Seahawks vs Patriots Player Props
Super Bowl MVP — Any Defensive Player (+1300)
There hasn't been a defensive MVP in the last nine Super Bowls, but prior to that there were two in a three-year span. But again, going back before that there wasn't a defensive MVP in the next 10 Super Bowls prior to that.
That means the worst-case window has been two defensive MVPs in the last 22 years, which would be +1000 as fair odds if that were the true long-term rate.
That 10-year gap between Bucs S Dexter Jackson winning it in Super Bowl XXXVII and Malcom Smith winning it in the last Seattle vs. New England Super Bowl (XLVIII) is notable because the current nine-year gap suggests a defensive MVP may be on the horizon.
I think there's a great shot of a defensive MVP.
Drake Maye has been there for the taking, getting sacked 4.6 times per game against defenses ranked in the top-12 in sack rate (Seattle ranks 11th). No doubt that's contributed to him putting the ball on the ground 14 times.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have also forced one interception per game, so this is one of Maye's best chances all year to throw an INT, maybe even multiple, which he has yet to do this year.
On the flip side, Sam Darnold has also had issues with turnovers, throwing 14 picks and putting the ball on the ground 12 times. The Patriots defense has turned up the pressure in the latter half of the season as they've gotten healthy, and especially in the playoffs, forcing 12 sacks in three playoff games and eight total turnovers.
The conditions are ripe for a defensive MVP, and even worst-case historical odds show 13-1 is value.
Cooper Kupp 1st Reception Yards Under 10.5 (-120)
Bet on Tues., Feb. 3
This under for Cooper Kupp has cashed in 10-of-18 games this season, and he's been fortunate to go over eight times given his median reception all year is nine yards.
In the first half (when his first reception is most likely) his median air yards is five, compared to seven in the second half. Twelve of his 18 first receptions came in the first half.
The Patriots allowed a median of seven yards to WRs with similar profiles (in terms of aDOT and positional alignment) to Kupp. The Pats allow the fourth-lowest yards per catch to receivers and fourth-lowest YAC per reception to players aligned out wide or in the slot. They are also 10th lowest for aDOT.
Note: Every year for the Super Bowl I have at least one bet on a player’s 1st rush/reception/completion. In 2023, it was Christian McCaffrey's first rush over 3.5 yards (which won on the opening play of the game). Last year, I had Jalen Hurts over 2.5 yards on his first rush and Xavier Worthy first reception under 9.5 yards (both hit). I have yet to lose one of these bets.
Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-114)
Bet on Tues., Feb. 3
The Seahawks have allowed one (!) explosive run all year on 174 rushes faced using man/gap schemes. That one came on a draw play; over 60% of Rhamondre Stevenson's carries are of the man/gap variety. He’s only run four draw plays all year and none were explosive.
Seattle has only allowed seven rushes all season (postseason included) longer than 12.5 yards to RBs — three of those were to the best rush offense in the NFL (Rams). The Patriots are 21st in offensive rush DVOA.
My worst-case estimate has this as a breakeven bet, hitting at 53.3% (which is -114). Every other estimate I have for this has this as solid value, with my median estimate north of 60%.
AJ Barner 3rd Qtr TD (+1200; FD) / 2nd Half TD (+600; bet365)
Bet on Tues., Feb. 3
38% of AJ Barner's targets have come in the third quarter and 4-of-7 TDs were scored in the third as well — yet his quarter odds for touchdowns at FanDuel are:
- 1st: 11-1
- 2nd: 8-1
- 3rd: 12-1
- 4th: 8-1
The quarter in which he gets the most volume and TDs has the longest odds! 60.5% of his targets are in the 2nd half/OT and 6-of-7 TDs.
The Patriots defense is also middle of the road when it comes to defending tight ends.
Over 4.5 Game Sacks (-140)
Bet on Fri., Jan. 30
There is a lot of value in this sack prop as both teams have quarterbacks who have taken sacks at decent rates.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been sacked 62 times in 20 games, a rate of 3.1 sacks per game. Notably, Maye has taken 4.6 sacks per game against top-12 defenses by sack rate, and has taken five sacks in each playoff game — all to top-12 defenses by sack rate — and Seattle’s defense conveniently ranks 11th in sack rate this season.
The Seahawks have done a better job of protecting Sam Darnold, who has taken just 32 sacks in 19 games, an average of 1.7 sacks per game.
Despite Darnold getting sacked at a lower rate, the Patriots defense has recorded 12 sacks in three playoff games. New England’s defense averages 2.6 sacks/game in games where Robert Spillane and Milton Williams played in full, vs. 1.9 sacks per game otherwise.
Williams is healthy, although Spillane has some injury concerns heading into the Super Bowl.
Still, this game is projected to go a shade over 5.5 sacks in total, with good market value for over 4.5 sacks at -200.
Drake Maye Under 6.5 1Q Rushing Yards (-113)
Bet on Fri., Jan. 30
This pick has a few trends working in its favor.
Drake Maye has stayed under this mark in 14-of-20 games (70%) as well as in 8-of-11 games vs. top-half rush DVOA defenses (72.7%), and in 8-of-9 games vs. top-14 rush DVOA defenses (88.9%).
In case you were wondering, the Seahawks are No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA. Even if Maye scrambles, Seattle allows the 8th-lowest yards per carry when quarterbacks leave the pocket.
The Seahawks are similarly proficient against designed QB runs; they allow a median of three yards to opposing quarterbacks on these plays.
In addition to Seattle’s defensive proficiency on the ground, Maye and the Patriots might have less possession in this game to begin with. The Seahawks are a run-oriented team with a good offense that can move the ball. If Seattle starts with the ball, Maye might only have one possession to hit this mark.
If you only have under 5.5 (-108) at FanDuel, I'd also play that. All the same trends hold.
Julian Love Interception (+800), Coby Bryant Interception (+950)
Bet on Fri., Jan. 30
Last year, I gave out Eagles middle linebacker Oren Burks at 23-1 — their other middle linebacker, Zach Baun, got the interception at 19-1 odds, so I’m not making the mistake of picking just one of the two safeties in this one.
Give me both safeties on Seattle to record an interception.
A few trends bode well for this interception prop — 50% of Maye’s career picks have gone to safeties; Talanoa Hufanga almost had one last week, but he flat-out dropped it.
Maye is sitting at just 0.5 interceptions per game, but Seattle’s defense grabs one interception per game, both right in line with expectations based on passes defended.
Maye is projected to throw 0.78 interceptions. If 40% of interceptions go to safeties and Love is favored over Bryant at a 55/45 rate (based on pass deflections in games both played), then I’m getting fair value at around +550 on Love and +700 on Bryant, and have to play both at their current values.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receptions (-130; bet to -165)
Bet on Mon., Jan. 26
TreVeyon Henderson got phased out of the Patriots' offense for the most part in the AFC Championship Game, but a lot of that had to do with the snowy conditions. With the Patriots playing with the lead, head coach Mike Vrabel trusted Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions.
With plenty of time to prepare in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not (they are 4.5-point underdogs), I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He wasn't necessarily used a ton, but he ran 17 routes and was targeted three times.
This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (fifth most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage.
And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single-high looks.
We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high-pressure defense, and while everyone's targets per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Drake Maye is under pressure of nine regular Patriot pass-catchers.
With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs.
