Patriots quarterback Drake Maye one is the key players taking the field for Super Bowl 60. He faces a tough task in the Seahawks defense, in conjunction with a shoulder injury he reportedly suffered during the AFC Championship Game.
How should NFL bettors approach Maye player props for Super Bowl 60 considering the matchup and the unexpected injury?
NFL experts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon break down what Maye has accomplished thus far and the markets they're targeting for him in the first week leading up to the Super Bowl.
Drake Maye Super Bowl Betting Preview, Pick
Drake Maye broke out in a big way in his second season in the NFL.
He led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9), completion rate (72%) and was third in average depth of target (9.51). The fact that he is so accurate despite making so many throws downfield is lethal. The Patriots were also fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) — on paper, Maye's overs for passing yards are what you'd be drawn to bet initially for Super Bowl 60.
There are, however, a few key reasons why you might not want to do that.
The Patriots played with the lead 62% of the time this season, which was the high mark in the NFL. Considering they went 14-3 and had the easiest schedule — that tracks.
They enter the Super Bowl as 4-5-point underdogs to the Seahawks. I'm expecting them to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate. That means he's going to drop back to pass at a much higher rate than usual if the spread is correct.
According to DVOA, the Seahawks have the best defense against the pass and run. Maye dropping back to pass more doesn't necessary translate to more pass attempts because he's more than willing to scramble.
His pass attempts prop will probably be set much higher than it usually is, but it's probably the market I'd target for him considering I don't know how efficient he's going to be against the Seahawks — not to mention he's reportedly dealing with a vague shoulder injury that needs to be monitored. Depending on how serious that injury is, he could possibly throw and/or scramble less than we expect.
The Seahawks have been prone to mobile quarterbacks so I do think he'll be running a ton if he's not compromised.
All that said, I haven't locked in anything yet in regards to Maye props.
For me, I'm on Maye's rushing overs despite the risk — if this shoulder injury is serious and he gets hit a certain way, he could miss plays and/or get knocked out of the game.
Still, I have him rushing for over 40 yards in this game. It's the Super Bowl and it's hard to imagine him not leaving it all out there one more time. He hasn't been impressive as a passer in the playoffs, but he's been a factor in the run game in two of the three Patriots games thus far.
In the AFC Championship game, Maye rushed 10 times for 65 yards and a touchdown; in the Wild Card Round, he rushed 10 times for 66 yards.
Maye also doesn't have the same level of pass-catchers at his disposal like Matthew Stafford did. Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are nice pieces, but they're not at the level of Puka Nacua, who basically does whatever he wants out on the field.
There are some splits worth pointing out here.
In the games Will Campbell and Jared Wilson were both in the lineup (from Weeks 13-18), Maye had a higher sack rate (10.7 with vs. 6.8 without) and scramble rate (10.4% with vs. 8.7 without). We've seen Campbell in particular get beat off the ball quite a bit during the playoffs.
Even after adjusting for these being playoff games with increased level of competition. Maye could running for his life in this game.
Maye's rushing numbers before and after the Patriots' Week 14 bye are striking.
- Yards per scramble: 6.6 before BYE; 10.8 after
- Designed run attempts: 1.1; 2.0
- Yards per carry on designed runs: 1.4; 4.3
He's doubled and tripled up his rushing production and efficiency in the Patriots' seven games since Week 14.
Maye's rushing yards over/under opened around 31.5 yards; that's ticked up around 5-6 yards since but this is still bettable as long as it's in the 30s.
You can find more Super Bowl player previews on the Fantasy Flex Podcast.
