We continue to truck along here at Action Network with early Super Bowl props for Seahawks vs Patriots on Sunday, Feb. 8.
For this article, I'm touching on long-shot prop picks for two Patriots players: TreVeyon Henderson and Drake Maye.
Super Bowl Props: Long-Shot Picks
TreVeyon Henderson 50+ Rushing Yards (+950)
There's a lot of uncertainty around TreVeyon Henderson entering the Super Bowl.
The rookie running back broke out during the middle portion of the regular season but has been a complete non-factor in the Patriots' three playoff games (24 rushes for 57 yards; two receptions for seven yards).
While he's a bit feast or famine, I like the odds we're getting here for 50+ rushing yards. Henderson's more than capable of breaking long runs — he had two rushes that went for at least 65 yards during the regular season.
My colleague Sean Koerner has already discussed why Rhamondre Stevenson could struggle in this game if the Patriots aren't playing in a leading game script. The veteran could be forced off the field in such a scenario, which gives Henderson opportunities to hit this.
The odds for this are long for a reason — Henderson hasn't hit 50 rushing yards since Week 18 — but it's hard for me to ignore his ability and the price so I'm taking a flyer on this bet.
Drake Maye to Have Most Rushing Yards (+750)
Drake Maye rushing for over 36.5 yards is one of the early bets I locked in for the Super Bowl; I'm taking it one step further by betting on him to have the most rushing yards in the game.
The reasoning for this is pretty simple.
We're not entirely sure of the roles Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will have — not to mention the Seahawks present their toughest test yet (No. 1 in Defensive Rush DVOA). And for Kenneth Walker on the Seahawks side, he's taking on a Patriots defense that I believe is the best in the league at stopping the run.
Maye is in a good spot for this specific bet because his own running backs could very well be neutralized. The Patriots are also 4-5-point underdogs and could be in a trailing game script.
Since the Patriots' bye in Week 14, Maye has been averaging 10.8 yards per scramble compared to 6.6 before the bye. He also averages two designed run attempts post-bye compared to 1.1 pre-bye.
They're putting the ball in his hands when it matters — like we saw in the AFC Championship Game when he iced the game with a late scramble for a first down.
Maye had 65 rushing yards against the Broncos (second-most rushing yards in the game behind Stevenson); he had 66 rushing yards in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers (most in the game).
