Super Bowl 60 between the Seahawks and Patriots is over a week away, but I have more prop picks to target early.
Continue below to find four Super Bowl picks — for Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry and DeMarcus Lawrence — that I'm showing value on.
Super Bowl 60 Props
Which Quarter Will Rhamondre Stevenson Have the Most Rushing Yards? 1st (+290)
I've been monitoring Rhamondre Stevenson's rush attempts per quarter over the season and last week's performance stood out as an outlier. He had nine of his 25 attempts in the fourth quarter — the snowy conditions played a role plus the fact that the Patriots were mainly trying to protect their lead against an ineffective Broncos offense led by Jarrett Stidham.
The fourth quarter in general is going to be game-script driven when it comes to running backs. The Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season and led 62% of the time this season. But for the Super Bowl, they're 4.5-point underdogs and could be facing a rare trailing game script late that doesn't feature much of Stevenson rushing the ball.
I have him projected to see a much higher percent of his rush attempts in the first quarter. I have this prop projected closer to +170 so there's a ton of value here.
This prop is only on DraftKings. You can find it under "Rushing Props" in the subsection labeled "Rush Yards — Q With Most."
Hunter Henry Under 4.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-112)
Like Stevenson, I did a deep dive on Hunter Henry's quarter-to-quarter usage and it shocked me to discover he's non-existent in the first quarter.
Henry has gotten off to a ton of slow starts where he's only seen a target on 11% of his first-quarter routes; he only has five catches in the first quarter in 20 games.
Obviously, you could probably chalk a ton of that up to noise, but there's probably some signal that he's just not as involved in the Patriots' initial scripted plays as much. That could change for the Super Bowl if they want to mix it up.
I have him right around 59% to not even catch a pass in the first quarter. If he does, there's only a 1% chance he stays under 4.5 yards just because he tends to get a low of downfield looks.
Hunter Henry Over 8.5 2nd Quarter Receiving Yards (-110)
On the flip side, I'm taking Henry to go over 8.5 yards in the second quarter.
That's the quarter where he sees a ton of usage; he led the team with a 20% target rate in the second quarter and he was actually the first read 21% of the time, which is quite high. The Patriots tend to scheme plays up for him in this quarter as he's involved in the two-minute offense.
I have his most likely outcome as one catch in the second quarter. He could get two or more receptions and easily clear this, but even if he gets one catch, he tends to make them count. His median catch this year was 18 yards and 70% of his catches went for at least nine yards.
DeMarcus Lawrence 1+ Sacks (+140)
This is a great matchup for the Seahawks when it comes to the sack market.
Drake Maye faced the sixth-highest pressure rate of the season. That's typically an offensive line stat, but he was also sacked on 24% of his pressures, which is the seventh-highest rate, which is more of a QB stat.
DeMarcus Lawrence led the Seahawks in sacks in the regular season and he has two sacks so far in the playoffs with a team-leading seven pressures. He's who I want to take here because he should be much closer to his ceiling in terms of playing time. I'm expecting him out there for 70-75% of the snaps.
I'm expecting Maye to drop back a ton in this game so I think Lawrence is gonna have a ton of chances to get him.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
