Super Bowl 60 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
The matchup for Super Bowl LX is set. We have Seahawks and Patriots — and with that matchup, we have a rematch of Super Bowl 49 (XLIX).
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the Super Bowl 60 version of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This is a live document, I will be adding different sections, systems and content up until Super Bowl Sunday — go by the date below for timing.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Monday, Jan. 26, at 3 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Favorites Prevail
Winning Outright
Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots and Rams all won outright in the Divisional Round — and all four were favorites.
Patriots and Seahawks won in the Conference Championship — and both were favorites.
This is the 3rd time since 1990 where favorites went 6-0 SU in the Divisional and Conference Championship, with 1991 and 2004, and the 6th time overall in the Super Bowl era.
The Dog Streak
Underdogs in the Super Bowl
Underdogs have excelled in the Super Bowl recently. Since 2004, they are 15-7 ATS and they have covered the spread in five straight Super Bowls dating back to 2020, including winning outright in three straight and 4 of the last 5 games.
The 5-game ATS win streak for underdogs in the Super Bowl is the longest in history.
The 3-game SU win streak for underdogs in the Super Bowl is tied for the 2nd-longest in history:
1981-84, 4
2023-25, 3
2012-14, 3
1969-71, 3
When the spread is 3 or more in the Super Bowl, the underdog is 13-4 ATS since 2001-02.
The Longshot
Futures in Effect
Patriots entered the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, they were the longshot of the Final Four and they are now in the Super Bowl. In the last 50 years, they were the 11th team to reach a Conference Championship game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher. Of those 11 teams, 7 lost in the Conference Championship and now four have made the Super Bowl:
• 2025 Patriots
• 2021 Bengals, 150-1 (lost)
• 2016 Falcons, 80-1 (lost)
• 1999 Rams, 150-1 (won)
The Unexpected Super Bowl
Ticket To Ride
From an odds standpoint, we have a pretty longshot Super Bowl. We haven't seen a Super Bowl where both teams entered the season both at 20-1 or longer since 2000-01 when the Ravens (22-1) beat the Giants (60-1) and it happened back-to-back years, with the Rams (150-1) and Titans (30-1) in 1999-00.
Since we moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, we've only had four Super Bowls where the two teams Super Bowl odds entering the season combined for 100-1 or higher and Super Bowl 16 is the only other one featuring two teams who entered the year at 50-1 or higher:
Super Bowl 34: 150-1 Rams over 30-1 Titans
Super Bowl 56: 12-1 Rams over 150-1 Bengals
Super Bowl 60: 80-1 Patriots vs. 60-1 Seahawks
Super Bowl 16: 50-1 49ers over 60-1 Bengals
This is the first Super Bowl since 2003 (Patriots/Panthers) between teams that missed the playoffs the previous season.
Failing To Win
ATS Loss Into Super Bowl
Patriots failed to cover the spread in the AFC Championship game vs. Broncos, winning by 3 and closing as a 3.5-point favorite, while the Seahawks covered the spread against the Rams.
Since the NFL merger in 1970, teams to fail to cover the spread in the Conference Championship game are 4-10 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
Different Chalk
Pedigree Isn't Everything
The Seahawks were favored by an average of 4.32 points per game this season, which slightly edged the Patriots, who were favored by 3.75 PPG this year. Over the last 22 years, the team that was the biggest favorite on average over the course of the season is 7-15 SU and 3-19 ATS in the Super Bowl (7-17 SU and 3-21 ATS over the last 24 years — since 2001). Before that stretch, these teams went 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS dating back to 1990.
On the other hand…
New England enters the Super Bowl with a slightly better SU win percentage (85%) than the Seahawks (84.2%) this season. In recent history, that hasn't boded well for the Patriots side since the team with the better win percentage is 1-17 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2003.
Quest For Kupp
JSN's 1,700 Season
Jaxson-Smith Njigba finished the 2025 regular season with 1,793 receiving yards, most in the NFL — just the 15th season of 1,700+ receiving yards in the Super Bowl era. Of those previous 14 receivers, 11 either didn't make the playoffs or lost their first playoff game and only one other WR even made the Super Bowl…
Cooper Kupp in 2021 with Rams, who won it all and went on to win Super Bowl MVP … and is now a teammate of Jaxson-Smith Njigba.
1,700+ Rec Yds, Win 1+ Playoff Game
2025 Puka Nacua (L, Conf Champ)
2021 Cooper Kupp, LAR (W, Super Bowl)
2015 Antonio Brown, PIT (L, Divisional)
First Experience
To The Super Bowl
Drake Maye or Sam Darnold will officially be the 14th QB to win a Super Bowl in the same season they received their first playoff win and only six have done it over the last 30 years:
2021 Matthew Stafford, 2017 Nick Foles, 2010 Aaron Rodgers, 2007 Eli Manning, 2001 Tom Brady and 1999 Kurt Warner.
Rest = Overrated
Bye Bye Bye
The Seahawks had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Patriots didn’t, playing in the Wild Card round. How much impact has the bye been when one team had it and the other didn’t enter the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game – had a bye entering playoffs – facing a team that did play in the Wild Card game or didn’t have a bye, are 4-13 SU and 2-14-1 ATS.
New Blood
Trojan Heel
Sam Darnold went to USC. Drake Maye went to North Carolina. Both schools have their first starting QB in Super Bowl history this year. The crazy part about USC: they have had 26 QBs selected in the NFL Draft, the most of any school.
Staying Strong
Fighting Back
Teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 19-34-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years, including 5-11 against the second-half spread since 2007-08 in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl 60
| Patriots | Seahawks | SB History | Markets | Outdoor SB | Anthem | Coin Toss | Gatorade | Referees | Systems | Stat Leaders | SB MVP | TD Zone | Futures | SB Trivia |
Team-By-Team Breakdown
| Drake Maye | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Playoff Record | SU: 3-0 | ATS: 2-1 | ||
2025 Record | SU: 17-3 | ATS: 14-6 | ||
Team Stats
➤The New England Patriots are back in the Super Bowl for the 12th time in franchise history, the most of any franchise in the Super Bowl era by four Super Bowls. With this being Super Bowl 60, New England has now been in the big game 20% of the time.
Since the Patriots first Super Bowl appearance in 1985-86, New England has been a part of 29% of Super Bowls.
In the Patriots 11 Super Bowls, they are 6-5 SU and 4-6-1 ATS, New England’s 6 ATS losses in the Super Bowl is the msot of any team (Broncos have 2nd-most with 5).
➤After beating the Broncos, Patriots now have 40 playoff wins in franchise history, which is tied with the 49ers for the most all-time – a record New England can break in Super Bowl 60.
➤On March 1st, the Patriots were 125-1 to win the Super Bowl, they got as low as 66-1 around June 1st and then the Patriots entered the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, they were the longshots of the Final Four and now they are in the Super Bowl.
In the last 50 years, they are the 11th team to reach a CC game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher. Of the previous ten teams, 7 lost in CC, 2 lost in SB and just the 1999 Rams went on to win it all at 150-1 odds in the preseason.
80-1 or higher make Super Bowl last 50 yrs:
• 2025 Patriots
• 2021 Bengals, 150-1 (lost)
• 2016 Falcons, 80-1 (lost)
• 1999 Rams, 150-1 (won)
➤Patriots failed to cover the spread in the AFC Championship game vs. Broncos, winning by 3 and closing as a 3.5-point favorite.
Since the NFL merger in 1970, teams to fail to cover the spread in the Conference Championship game are 4-10 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
➤After the Patriots beat the Broncos last week as 3.5-pt favorites on close, Drake Maye is 13-0 SU as a favorite of 3 pts or more, including as a favorite overall, the Patriots are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS.
In Super Bowl 60, the Patriots are underdogs – Maye is just 7-11 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog as a starter for New England. The good news for the Patriots is that with Maye as an underdog, they are averaging 26.2 PPG this season (4-2 SU/ATS).
Patriots are in the Super Bowl after also not being listed as a favorite in a single game last season and entering this year on a 17-game streak as underdogs entering Week 1, the longest active streak in the NFL at the time.
➤What the Patriots have accomplished from an expectations standpoint is impressive. They are 17-3 SU and 14-6 ATS and entering the season they were the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won.
Since 2002, only six teams have seen their actual win total increase by 4+ wins year-to-year. The 2025 Patriots and 2018 Rams made the Super Bowl, with the 2018 Rams losing to the Patriots.
2024-25 Patriots win total: 4.5 to 8.5 (won 14 games, in Super Bowl)
2024-25 Broncos win total: 5.5 to 9.5 (won 14 games, lost Conf Champ)
2022-23 Falcons win total: 4.5 to 8.5 (won 7 games, miss playoffs)
2022-23 Jets win total: 5.5 to 9.5 (won 7 games, miss playoffs)
2017-18 Rams win total: 6 to 10 (won 13 games, lost Super Bowl)
2008-09 Falcons win total: 4.5 to 8.5 and they won 9 games, miss playoffs)
➤Between 2022 and 2024, the Patriots went 3-29 SU and 5-26-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both were the worst marks in the NFL.
In 2025, they are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS when trailing by 7+ pts, New England has won six in a row outright in this spot after trailing 7-0 to the Broncos last week and winning 10-7.
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➤Two different ways to look at the Patriots playoff offensive futility.
New England has averaged 18.0 PPG in the playoffs, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams (15 PPG).
Drake Maye is also the 1st QB to win 3 playoff games vs. top-5 total defenses in a single postseason.
➤Drake Maye has historically been a cash cow for the over in his starts. During the regular season, the over is 20-9 in his starts, 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson the last two seasons.
In the playoffs, Maye though is 2-1 to the under, going under the total by 16.5 PPG.
➤Playing away from home has been a friendly place for New England this season. They are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS away from home, the only undefeated team away from home SU in the NFL.
In his career, Drake Maye is 10-5 SU away from home, he’s 9-0 SU this season and went 1-5 SU last season.
➤Mike Vrabel has made the Super Bowl in his first season as coach of the Patriots. Of the 32 different head coaches to win a Super Bowl hired after 1966, only four have done it in their first season with a team:
Don McCafferty — Baltimore Colts, 1970 season (Super Bowl V)
Took over a veteran roster and won the franchise’s only Super Bowl.
George Seifert — San Francisco 49ers, 1989 season (Super Bowl XXIV)
Replaced Bill Walsh and led the 49ers to a dominant title run in his first year.
Brian Billick — Baltimore Ravens, 2000 season (Super Bowl XXXV)
Built around an all-time great defense in his first year as head coach.
Gary Kubiak — Denver Broncos, 2015 season (Super Bowl 50)
Won immediately after being hired, behind an elite defense and Peyton Manning’s final season.
➤Mike Vrabel’s 17 outright wins in his first season with a franchise are tied for the most in NFL history.
Most SU Wins in 1st Season With Team
17 – 2025 Mike Vrabel, Patriots (in Super Bowl)
17 –1989 George Seifert, 49ers (won and covered SB)
16 – 2009 Jim Caldwell, Colts (lost SB SU and ATS)
➤Vrabel’s moneyline profitability is beyond impressive.
• He is 73-51 SU as a head coach, with a $100 bettor up $3,006 for a 24.2% ROI. That $3,006 mark is the best of 150 coaches in the last 20 seasons (Mike Tomlin is 2nd).
• He has also excelled as an underdog. His teams are 31-32 SU with a $100 bettor up $2,965 for a 47.1% ROI. In the last 20 seasons, that is the 3rd-most profitable mark.
➤Vrabel is 35-26-2 ATS (57.4%) as an underdog, going .500 ATS or better as an underdog in all seven seasons in the NFL. When Vrabel faces a team with a 66%+ win pct, he is 17-10 ATS as an underdog, covering by 5 PPG.
➤Patriots have been good in the first half this season.
After tying the Broncos 7-7 at the half in the AFC Championship, Patriots still haven’t trailed at the half since Week 3 vs. Steelers — Drake Maye is 18-1-2 on 1H moneyline in his last 21 starts and 15-0-2 on the 1st half moneyline in his last 17 starts.
➤Last week, Jarrett Stidham became the 7th QB since 1950 to make his first start of a season in the playoffs. 6 of those 7 “new” QBs lost outright in that first game, like Stidham. Of those six teams to beat the “new’ QB, five lost their next playoff game, with the 2020 Bucs beating Taylor Heinicke and then winning the Super Bowl.
➤The Patriots defense has been stellar in the playoffs, allowing 16 pts or less in all three games entering the Super Bowl, including just 26 pts in total, the fewest for any defense since the 2000 Ravens.
➤The Patriots opened -5.5 vs. Broncos, closed -3.5 and won outright. Last 20 years, New England is just the 3rd team to close as a favorite in the Conference Championship, see their line dip 2+ pts open to close and
In the Conference Championship and Super Bowl, we've only seen three favorites see their line get 2+ pts smaller from open to close since 2005…
2025-26 Patriots beat Broncos, in Super Bowl
2017-18 Patriots beat Jaguars, lost Super Bowl vs. Eagles
2005-06 Seahawks beat Panthers, lost Super Bowl vs. Steelers
➤Drake Maye had a passer rating of 113.5 in the regular season, which led the NFL. In the playoffs, Maye has a passer rating of just 84 in three games played.
16 QBs, including Maye, have had a 113+ passer rating with 200+ pass attempts during a regular season – Of the previous 15 QBs, 11 failed to make the Super Bowl, while four made it to the big game, just to lose outright:
2023 Brock Purdy – Lost Super Bowl
2016 Matt Ryan – Lost Super Bowl
2013 Peyton Manning – Lost Super Bowl
2007 Tom Brady – Lost Super Bowl
➤Both Conference Championship games were nailbitters, both finishing with a margin of 4 pts or less, just the 3rd time has ever happened:
2025: Patriots 10, Broncos 7; Seahawks 31, Rams 27
2021: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24; Rams 20, 49ers 17
2011: Patriots 21, Ravens 20; Giants 20, 49ers 17
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| Sam Darnold | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Playoff Record | SU: 2-1 | ATS: 2-1 | ||
2025 Record | SU: 16-3 | ATS: 14-5 | ||
Team Stats
➤The Seattle Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for just the 4th time in franchise history, with all four appearances coming since 2005-06, over the last 20 years. Seattle is 1-2 SU and ATS in their previous three appearances and in all three appearances, the Seahawks have closed as underdogs, with them now being listed as the favorite finally in the big game.
➤The Sam Darnold turnaround has been remarkable.
• He is 30-7 SU over the last two seasons, most SU wins for any QB in the NFL — His 25-11-1 ATS mark is also best.
• In his first 6 seasons, he went 21-35 SU & 22-33-1 ATS.
Darnold tries to exercise some demons in Super Bowl 60 facing the Patriots, who he is not only 0-4 SU/ATS against, but has lost by 25 PPG and failed to cover the spread by 17.5 PPG against.
Darnold’s 0-4 SU mark vs. Patriots is his most losses without a win vs. any opponent.
➤Sam Darnold has been great as a favorite in his NFL career…
• As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Darnold is 19-6 SU and 13-11-1 ATS.
• As a favorite of more than 3 pts, Darnold is 17-3 SU and 12-8 ATS
• As a favorite of 4 pts or more, Darnold is 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS
As a favorite of 4 pts or more away from home (road/neutral), Darnold is 6-0 SU in his NFL career.
➤The Seahawks/Rams game had a flurry of points in the NFC Championship, finishing with 58 total points between the two teams, while the Patriots/Broncos had just 17 total points.
In the last 30 years, we’ve seen twelve Championship games with 50+ combined pts, while the other Championship game had fewer than 50 pts. The conference that saw the high-scoring Championship affair went just 4-8 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl.
➤Seahawks are now 4-0 SU all-time in the Conference Championship game at home after beating the Rams. In the three previous Super Bowls after winning the Conference Championship at home, Seattle is just 1-2 SU.
➤The bounce back has been good. Seahawks/Rams have been battling with Mike Macdonald at the helm in Seattle, the good news is the Seahawks are 3-0 SU the game after facing McVay and the Rams over the last two seasons, winning all three games away from home (on the road).
After facing an NFC West opponent, Seattle is 9-3 ATS under Macdonald.
➤Seattle is coming off a homestand in Seattle, beating the Rams and 49ers, and now they hit the road playing in San Francisco for the Super Bowl.
Seahawks are 4-0 SU under Mike Macdonald after a homestand (2+ consecutive home games), when they play on the road, covering the spread in those four games by 10.3 PPG, too.
➤Over the last 2 seasons with Seahawks, 10 QBs under age of 25 have faced Mike Macdonald’s defense.
They are 1-9 SU, with 7 pass TD, 12 INT and 30 total sacks.
These quarterbacks have lost 8 in a row outright, with just Brock Purdy in 2024 the only winner.
➤The Seahawks had a slight rest advantage over the Rams in the NFC Championship – playing on Saturday in the Divisional Round vs. Sunday.
After their win, Mike Macdonald is 8-2 SU with the Seahawks on extended prep time during the season, winning those games by an average of 10 PPG. Entering the Super Bowl, the Seahawks have won five consecutive games outright in this spot, including five straight road wins, too.
➤Mike Macdonald has coached eleven total night games while with the Seahawks (all time EST). He started 0-3 SU in those games, and since have won 8 straight at night.
He was 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS with Geno Smith
He is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS with Sam Darnold
Darnold is 7-0 SU in night games with Mike Macdonald and 4-7 SU with all other head coaches in the NFL.
➤Seahawks have now won 9 consecutive games outright entering the Super Bowl, including covering the spread in their last 4 games.
• Seattle is the 15th team to enter a Super Bowl on a 9+ game SU win streak. Those teams are just 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS in the big game. Last last 4 instances of a team on a 9+ game win streak entering a Super Bowl was all the Patriots in 2017, 2012, 2008 and 2004.
• Seahawks are the 5th team to be on a 9+ game SU win streak and a 4+ game ATS win streak entering the Super Bowl – the previous four teams went 4-0 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl.
2016-17 Patriots (9), beat Falcons 34-28 (covered)
2000-01 Ravens (10), beat Giants 34-7 (covered)
1986-87 Giants (11), beat Broncos 39-20 (covered)
1971-72 Cowboys (9), beat Dolphins 24-3 (covered)
Also, teams on a 4+ game ATS win streak entering the Super Bowl are 7-3 ATS since 2003.
➤Seahawks secured their 14th ATS cover of the season last week against the Rams, which is now a single-season record in franchise history.
Most ATS Wins, Single Season Seahawks History
2025, 14-5 ATS, 2-0 ATS in playoffs, in Super Bowl
2013, 13-6 ATS, 2-1 ATS in playoffs, won SB
2012, 13-5 ATS, 2-0 ATS in playoffs, lost in DIV
➤The Seahawks get the Patriots in the Super Bowl and this season, Seattle is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS vs. teams above .500. Their two SU losses are by 5 combined pts – by 2 pts to the Rams and by 3 pts to the Buccaneers.
Over the last two seasons, Sam Darnold is 15-5 SU vs. teams above .500. In his first 6 seasons, he went 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500.
➤The Seahawks rush defense has gone 28 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher – with James Cook the last runner to go for 100 against Seattle back in Week 8 of last season.
In their first playoff game vs. 49ers, no player eclipsed 40+ yards.
In the Conference Championship, no play eclipsed 60+ yards.
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➤This is the fourth time the Seahawks will have the No. 1 seed in the NFC – all four times they’ve had the No. 1 seed they went to the Super Bowl. Overall as the No. 1 seed, Seahawks are 7-4 ATS, since 2003 all other teams are 38-52-1 ATS as the top seed.
An NFC No. 1 seed has not won the Super Bowl since the 2017 Eagles and the 2013, Seahawks dating back to 2010.
➤Seahawks faced the 49ers in the Divisional Round and the Rams in the Conference Championship.
Seattle is the 4th team since the 1970 merger to defeat two division opponents outright in the same postseason:
2025 Seahawks vs. 49ers/Rams
2021 Rams vs. Cardinals/49ers (won Super Bowl)
1985 Patriots vs. Jets/Dolphins (lost Super Bowl)
1982 Dolphins vs. Patriots/Jets (lost Super Bowl)
➤Seahawks have scored 30+ pts in the Divisional Round and Conference Championship and are now laying more than 4 pts in the Super Bowl.
Since 2000, they are just the 3rd team with those three factors:
2025 Seahawks, -4.5 vs Patriots
2015 Panthers, -4.5 lost to Broncos
2002 Raiders, -4 lost to Buccaneers
➤Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 44% of the Seahawks receiving yards during the regular season. That is the highest mark for any team in the Super Bowl over the last 50 years. The closest was Michael Irvin at 42.8% in 1995 for the Cowboys, who ended up winning it all.
➤Not only is Drake Maye the 2nd-youngest QB to start a Super Bowl, but he’s just the 10th QB to start a Super Bowl before the age of 25 – the previous nine QBs went 3-6 SU and 3-5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl, including the youngest QB to ever start, Dan Marino in 1984-85 losing 38-16.
Of those nine QBs under 25 in the Super Bowl, four were listed as underdogs and one won outright: Patriots and Tom Brady (+14) in 2001-02.
➤The Patriots are 14-6 ATS, the Seahawks are 14-5 ATS.
You have to go all the way back to Super Bowl 29 back in 1994-95 to find the last big game where both teams entered with 11+ ATS wins and this is the first Super Bowl where both teams have 12+ ATS wins entering.
This season, the Seahawks and Patriots are the two best teams ATS entering the Super Bowl.
➤The Seahawks and Patriots have been great off of wins this season.
Seattle is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS off of a SU win this season, best ATS mark in the NFL.
New England is 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS off of a SU win this season, best SU mark in the NFL.
Mike Macdonald is 19-5 SU and 16-7-1 ATS off of a SU win as a head coach.
Mike Vrabel is 45-26 SU and 38-33 ATS off of a SU win as a head coach.
➤ Mike Vrabel is in his 1st season with Patriots, Mike Macdonald in his 2nd season with Seahawks.
This is the 4th Super Bowl where both head coaches are in their 1st or 2nd season with a franchise:
Super Bowl 60: Mike Macdonald (2nd) vs. Mike Vrabel (1st)
Super Bowl 43: Mike Tomlin (2nd) vs. Ken Whisenhunt (2nd)
Super Bowl 37: Jon Gruden (1st) vs. Bill Callahan (1st)
Super Bowl 36: Bill Belichick (2nd) vs. Mike Martz (2nd)
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Super Bowl History
| Favorites & Underdogs Super Bowl favorites are 36-23 SU and 27-30-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Super Bowl underdogs are 11-7 SU in the last 18 Super Bowls, including 13-5 ATS. Underdogs had their way in the Wild Card round, going 4-2 ATS (winning 3 of those games outright), favorites bounced back and went 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS in the Divisional Round and Conference Championship). Favorites went 2-0 SU/ATS last year in Conference Championship with Eagles and Chiefs and they are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS over the last three seasons. We are just coming off a regular season to remember for fading the public. Teams with 60%+ of tickets ATS went 70-102-1 ATS (40.7%) during the regular season this year, worst mark in the 23-year history of the Bet Labs database. In the playoffs so far, teams who close as the public side (51% of tickets or higher), are 7-5 ATS, including 3-3 ATS with 60%+ of tickets. |
| The Super Bowl Total The over is 29-28-1 in the Super Bowl. (There was no total in Super Bowl 1.) • The over has cashed in three straight Super Bowls for the first time since 2013-15. It hasn't cashed in four straight since 1985-88. The over has never cashed in five straight Super Bowls in history. We are also coming off a regular season to remember for overs. For the first time since 2010-11, overs went over .500 in consecutive regular seasons and at 52.8% to the over in the regular season since 2024, that is the highest two-year over win pct since that 2010-11 stretch. |
| Super Bowl Winners ATS Super Bowl winners are 50-7-2 ATS (88%). The Rams won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread in 2022, which was the first time that happened since the 2009 Super Bowl. Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or fewer points are 31-1 ATS. Super Bowl winners with a spread of four or fewer are 24-0 ATS, with 11 favorites and 13 'dogs winning straight-up. This will likely be the 32nd Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer. The SU winner has covered the spread in 30 of 31 games. Sixteen 'dogs have won outright and 15 favorites have won outright. |
Super Bowl Tidbits
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Betting Markets
Outdoor, Grass Super Bowl
➤ This will be the 32nd outdoor Super Bowl where the field surface will be a type of grass, in this instance it is Bermuda Grass. Those previous games are 16-13-1 to the over (no O/U in Super Bowl I).
The average over/under in those first 30 games is 45.2, with the average combined points scored between the two teams coming in at 48.5. If we look recently, we've only had five of these Super Bowls (outdoor grass) since Super Bowl 45, the over is just 2-3 in those five games, with the average O/U sitting at 50, with the average combined points at also 50 on the dot.
➤ Looking at just Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, it has hosted one other Super Bowl back in 2015-16 between the Broncos and Panthers. That total closed at 43, with Denver winning just 24-10 (34 total pts).
Looking at the last five seasons, Levi's Stadium has leaned to the first half over, going 29-17. Of 46 different stadiums in that span, that is the 5th-best mark to the first half over in the NFL.
For updated weather reports check out the Action Network NFL Weather page.
➤ Now, let's talk the surface of the field. In San Francisco this year, we have Tifway II Bermuda Grass on the field. This will be the 12th Super Bowl with a Tifway Bermuda Grass surface, that is also outdoors.
In those previous 11 Super Bowls, we've seen an average of 47.2 PPG scored with an average total of 48.8. In eight of those Super Bowl's where the total closed at 47 or higher, the under went 6-1-1, cashing by 2.5 PPG.
National Anthem
Full National Anthem info since 2007: Year-by-year times, over/unders and results:
➤ Charlie Puth, a multi-platinum, Grammy-nominated singer, songwriter, and producer, will perform The Star-Spangled Banner ahead of Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. He’ll be joined in the pregame entertainment lineup by Grammy-winning artists performing America the Beautiful and Lift Every Voice and Sing.
Tidbits:
+ Last 11 years, National Anthem is 6-4-1 to the over and 4-2-1 to the over last seven years.
+ 8 of the past 9 anthems have been under 2:05. The exception had two singers on the mic.
Coin Toss
Full coin toss info in 59-year Super Bowl history: Year-by-year heads/tails, team who won the toss and did they end up winning the game.
➤ In the 59-year history of the Super Bowl, tails leads the way 31 to 28 against heads.
➤ The team who has won the coin toss is actually just 2-9 SU in the last 11 Super Bowls
➤ The AFC has actually won the coin toss now in 5 straight Super Bowls: Chiefs 4 times and the Bengals.
Gatorade Bath
Here is the full Gatorade info since 2001, including color, team who won and information on correlation to logo/jersey color.
➤ Dating back to 2001, we've 25 different Gatorade baths at the end of the Super Bowl. Orange leads the way with 5 baths, but none since 2020 and just one orange bath since 2017.
➤ In the last decade, we've seen three blue Gatorade baths, the most of any color.
➤ When it comes to correlation, since 2017, we've seen the Gatorade bath match a color on the winning team twice, and both times it has been blue in 2022 with the Rams and 2019 with the Patriots.
Referee: Shawn Smith
➤ Shawn Smith will be the Super Bowl referee this year. This will be Smith's first on-field Super Bowl assignment. From a biography standpoint, Smith was born in Detroit, Michigan, he grew up in Southfield, Michigan, where he is also currently as an internal auditor and he went to Ferris State University.
This season, this will be Smith's second playoff game as a head official, also being the main referee for the Patriots-Texans playoff game, a matchup New England won 28-16 with only seven total accepted penalties called in the game.
➤ Let's review some of Smith's penalty tendencies over the last few seasons.
- Smith only called 3 roughing the passer penalties this season, tied for the 3rd-fewest mark of any official. Smith also only called 3 accepted roughing the passer penalties last year.
- Smith only called 29 accepted offensive holding calls this season, the 2nd-fewest of any official in the NFL, including just 1.71 offensive holding calls per game, the fewest mark in the NFL. Smith was tied for the 3rd-fewest accepted offensive holding calls last year, too.
- On the other end of the spectrum, Smith called 23 accepted defensive pass intereference penalties, tied for the 2nd-most of any official this season. In a similar vein, he called 22 total defensive holding penalties, both accepted and dismissed this season, the 2nd-most of any official. Last year, Smith led the NFL in defensive holding calls as well.
- Unnecessary roughness penalties have been at the top of Shawn Smith's list in recent years. He is tied for the 3rd-most accepted unnecessary roughness penalties this season and last season. In 2023, Smith led the NFL in these accepted penalties with 28 such calls, the most we've seen in a single season in the last decade.
➤ Shawn Smith's games have been an interesting case in close calls. Favorites are 87-41-1 SU (68%) since 2018 with Smith as the head official, winning by a small margin, just 4.9 PPG. Which is why in that same span, underdogs are 68-55-6 ATS (55.3%), covering by a little over a half point per game, finishing .500 ATS or better in 5 of the last 6 seasons.
➤ When you look at Smith's seven playoff games as the main official, underdogs have ruled the way, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS, covering the spread by 3.3 PPG. In those seven playoff games, the over is 5-2, going over the total by 6.1 PPG.
➤ Shawn Smith has been the main official for five games in Levi's Stadium in San Francisco. The underdogs went 3-2 SU in those games, including the under going 3-2, with the last game coming back in 2022.
➤ The Patriots are 2-0 SU this season with Smith as the head official, scoring 61 total points and allowing just 31 pts vs. Texans and Giants (all games with Drake Maye). Mike Vrabel is 6-3 SU with Smith as the head official.
➤ Sam Darnold is 1-3 SU with Smith as the main official, including Mike Macdonald also 0-1 SU with Smith, losing to the Giants, 29-20.
Betting Systems
System: In the Conference Championship round since 2015, the first half over is now 16-6. The Super Bowl has been a different story, going 9-4-1 since 2011-12.
Matches: 1st Half Under
System: In the Conference Championship and Super Bowl, teams have struggled to cover the second half spread after holding a lead at the half.
Teams leading at the half in this year's NFL playoffs are 6-4 against the second-half spread, the best mark so far since 2020.
Over the last four seasons, including the playoffs, teams who lead at the half are about 100 games under .500 against the 2nd half spread. Plus, teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 19-34-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years.
Matches: Check Lines
System: When both teams are on extended rest, it has historically been profitable to look to the under.
Matches: Under
System: When you good teams play later in the season, history says to fade the favorite.
Matches: SEA
System: When two good ATS teams meet in the Super Bowl or Conference Championship, take the favorite. When these matchups are in the Divisional or Wild Card round, they are just 8-15-1 ATS.
Matches: SEA
Playoff Stat Leaders
Tap the carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL leader odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets (Odds from pre-playoffs | Current odds). All players eliminated behind 1st place have been removed.
NFL Final Stat Matrix
 |  Leader |  2nd In Category |  3rd In Category |
| Pass Yds | Matthew Stafford (N/A): Leader (936) | Drake Maye (N/A): -403 | Sam Darnold (N/A): -466 |
| Pass TD | Matthew Stafford (N/A): Leader (6) | Drake Maye (N/A): -2 | Sam Darnold (N/A): -2 |
| Rush TD | Kenneth Walker III (N/A): Leader (4) | Drake Maye (N/A): -3 | N/A |
| Rec. Yds | Puka Nacua (N/A): Leader (332) | Jaxson-Smith Njigba (N/A): -160 | Kayshon Boutte (N/A): -185 |
| Rec. TD | Jaxson-Smith Njigba (N/A): Leader (2) | Cooper Kupp, Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Jake Bobo: -1 | N/A |
| Updated as of Feb. 3rd | |||
Super Bowl MVP
Let's dive into some notes and trends for Super Bowl MVP.
➤ 13 of the last 16 Super Bowl MVPs have been under 10-1 odds (Edelman, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith).
➤ Since 2003, we've had ten players be listed as +110 or shorter to win Super Bowl MVP — only two won: 2019 Patrick Mahomes at +105 and 2006 Peyton Manning at +100.
Not only that, of the ten players to be listed +110 or shorter, not only were they 2-8 winning the award, but so were their teams in the Super Bowl itself.
Darnold is the SB MVP favorite at +130. We've seen 14 players listed under +140 since 2003, four won SB MVP, five went on to actually win the Super Bowl with only Tom Brady in 2018 not winning MVP.
➤ Drake Maye is a 4.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl and is +240 to win SB MVP. Since 2003, 12 QBs have been +3.5 or higher in the Super Bowl, only three have been listed below +300 to win the award:
2025 Drake Maye, 2021 Joe Burrow (lost SB) and 2012 Joe Flacco (won SB & award)
➤ Here is a positional breakdown of the 59 Super Bowl MVPs…
34 – QBs
8 – WR
7 – RB
11 – every other position
➤ A WR won MVP four years ago (Cooper Kupp) and in 2019 (Julian Edelman), but it’s been ages since a RB has won. You have to go back to 1998 (Terrell Davis) and 1994 (Emmitt Smith).
➤ Jaxson Smith-Njigba is listed at +500 to win SB MVP, the 2nd-lowest price for a WR since 2003, behind only Larry Fitzgerald at +400 back in 2008.
➤ Let's first take a look at each Super Bowl MVP and their odds dating back to 2003:
➤ It isn't easy to win Super Bowl MVP as a defender. Here are defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP since 2000:
• 2015 Von Miller (Broncos): 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles. Neither QB (Peyton Manning or Cam Newton) threw a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
• 2013 Malcolm Smith (Seahawks): pick-six, 10 tackles, fumble recovery. Russell Wilson threw for 206 passing yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
• 2002 Dexter Jackson (Buccaneers) two interceptions. Brad Johnson threw for 215 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and an interception.
• 2000 Ray Lewis (Ravens): four pass deflections and five tackles; Ravens defense allowed seven points. Trent Dilfer threw for 153 passing yards with a touchdown, while Jamal Lewis had 27 carries for 102 rushing yards and a touchdown.
TD Zone
Below is an Anytime TD Super Bowl sheet — which encompasses every TD and odds for each player for the last eight Super Bowls.
Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season for the two remaining teams.
Super Bowl Futures
➤ Patriots entered the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, they were the longshot of the Final Four and they are now in the Super Bowl. In the last 50 years, they were the 11th team to reach a Conference Championship game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher. Of those 11 teams, 7 lost in the Conference Championship and now four have made the Super Bowl:
• 2025 Patriots
• 2021 Bengals, 150-1 (lost)
• 2016 Falcons, 80-1 (lost)
• 1999 Rams, 150-1 (won)
➤ From an odds standpoint, we have a pretty longshot Super Bowl. We haven't seen a Super Bowl where both teams entered the season both at 20-1 or longer since 2000-01 when the Ravens (22-1) beat the Giants (60-1) and it happened back-to-back years, with the Rams (150-1) and Titans (30-1) in 1999-00.
Since we moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, we've only had four Super Bowls where the two teams Super Bowl odds entering the season combined for 100-1 or higher and Super Bowl 16 is the only other one featuring two teams who entered the year at 50-1 or higher:
Super Bowl 34: 150-1 Rams over 30-1 Titans
Super Bowl 56: 12-1 Rams over 150-1 Bengals
Super Bowl 60: 80-1 Patriots vs. 60-1 Seahawks
Super Bowl 16: 50-1 49ers over 60-1 Bengals
This is the first Super Bowl since 2003 (Patriots/Panthers) between teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
➤ Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has always come from the top 8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs, including from the top 6 in each of the past 12 seasons. The last team to win outside the top 6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens. Here were the top 6 in odds this year: Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, Eagles, Patriots, and Bills.
This streak continued this year with the Seahawks and Patriots
➤ Since 2005, the favorite to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs have won it all just three times (Chiefs in 2023, Patriots in 2016 and the Seahawks in 2013). The Seahawks can make it a fourth with a victory in Super Bowl 60.
➤ Only two AFC team has made the Super Bowl with preseason conference odds above +1000 since Tom Brady and the Patriots in 2001 (+2000), and that was the 2021 Bengals at +8000 and now the 2025 Patriots at +3000.
Patriots Super Bowl Odds
Patriots: +190 (Highest odds: +12500, Enter Wk4 | Enter WK1: +8000)
Seahawks Super Bowl Odds
Seahawks: -230 (Highest odds: +8000, Enter WK2 | Enter WK1: +6000)
Trivia
For this week's trivia question, we are looking for just one answer. Click the button below to reveal the correct answer.
Trivia Question: Patriots are 14-6 ATS (70%) this season and listed as 4.5-point underdogs in the Super Bowl. Name the last team with a 70%+ ATS win pct who was the underdog in the Super Bowl.
❌ Click This Button For Trivia Answer ✅
1998-99 Falcons, who had a 73.3% ATS win pct and lost to the Broncos.
