The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) and Houston Texans (0-1) face off on Monday Night Football on September 15. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
The Texans are favored by 2.5 points on the spread (Texans -2.5) with the over/under set at 42.5. Houston is a -145 moneyline favorite while Tampa Bay is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs Texans prediction for Monday Night Football below.
Buccaneers vs Texans Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Texans pick: Texans -2.5 (Play anything under 3)
My Buccaneers vs Texans best bet is on Houston to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Texans Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Buccaneers vs Texans Monday Night Football Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview: Tough Test for Mayfield
The Bucs led the charge in Week 1 regarding teams that likely shouldn't have won. They defeated Atlanta, which finished with a net +6.7% net success rate. The Falcons also had a couple of game-changing fourth downs go against them early, in addition to some wide receiver injuries and a missed late kick to force overtime.
Still, the Bucs lost the yardage battle by 100 yards while averaging a half yard per play less. Most importantly, this offense didn't look the same.
The Bucs remain shorthanded at wide receiver and were forced to shift around their entire offensive line without Tristan Wirfs, who remains sidelined with an injury.
This offense looked nowhere near as potent without those key cogs. It seemed to sorely miss offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who was an absolute wizard in terms of play design, specifically when it came to the screen game.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield also got away with several near picks that would've easily flipped the result. According to PFF, Mayfield finished with four turnover-worthy plays yet zero turnovers.
In fact, the only two quarterbacks to exceed a 10% turnover-worthy play rate in Week 1 were Tua Tagovailoa (who had a catastrophic start) and Mayfield.
Things will not get any easier tonight against one of the league's best defenses — the Texans feature a lockdown secondary to match up with Tampa's receivers — though Emeka Egbuka does look like a stud — and elite edge rushers to wreak havoc on Mayfield in the pocket.
It should be a long day for the Oklahoma product.
Houston Texans Betting Preview: Healthy Houston
Now, you might be hesitant to back the Texans after last week's pitiful offensive effort against the Rams, but there are reasons for optimism.
Starting right guard Ed Ingram (who had a terrific camp and preseason) got ruled out with an abdominal injury in Week 1, which caused Houston to completely reshuffle their front with basically three position changes.
Not only that, they suffered more injuries pregame and were forced to go with countless different combinations against a nasty defensive front. That's not ideal on the road in Week 1 from a continuity standpoint.
Well, it looks like Ingram is a go this week, which allows Tytus Howard to slide back to right tackle, where he is much more reliable. While starting center Jake Andrews will miss this game with an injury, I don't see much of a drop-off to Jarrett Patterson.
Most importantly, this unit will have the week (plus an extra day) to build continuity with a known starting five with most of the guys in their original positions. Plus, the task at hand gets a bit easier against a Tampa pass rush that doesn't have the same juice as the Rams possess.
Buccaneers vs Texans Prediction, Betting Analysis
I think Houston upgraded significantly at offensive coordinator with Nick Caley over Bobby Slowik, and you should see some of those dividends pay off tonight with more certainty along the offensive line at home against a vulnerable defense.
I trust C.J. Stroud to make enough plays and the Texans defense to shut down a shorthanded Bucs offense to cover anything under a field goal in a lower-scoring affair.
Sell high on the lucky Bucs and buy low on the Texans.
Pick: Texans -2.5 (Play anything under 3)
Spread
As mentioned, I'm taking any edge under -3 for Houston.
Moneyline
I'm not interested in the moneyline for this game.
Over/Under
I have no play here, but I lean toward the under.
