We're still a few months from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, but the markets are already moving. With favorites going up and down as players showcase their best — and worst — performances this season, it's a good moment to take a look at who's got the best odds to walk away with the trophy come July 2026.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for the most likely 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup winners, with several teams in the running as favorites. You can trade on all sorts of events and awards in sports — and thousands of other markets — at Kalshi, which is available in all 50 states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
2026 Men's World Cup Winner Odds, Predictions
The FIFA World Cup is a tournament that never fails to captivate the world, with moments of joy, heartbreak, and above all, unpredictability. As we look toward the 2026 Men's World Cup, with games played across North America in the US, Mexico, and Canada, bettors and experts alike are trying to predict the winner.
The World Cup has continually proven to be a stage where favorites stumble and underdogs rise. Soccer is predicated on its unpredictability and shaped by tactical evolution, emerging talent, and the fans themselves.
However, historical powerhouses are naturally attracting the spotlight, powered by a mix of fresh talents and experienced heads.
Spain: The Front-Runner
The Spanish national team enters the 2026 Men's World Cup as the frontrunner. The possession-based style known as "tiki-taka" remains at the center of Spain's style, but it has now been bolstered by a new generation of talent, chief among them Barcelona's Lamine Yamal.
The Barca academy product is arguably the best player in the world at just 18. Having broken into FC Barcelona's first team in 2023 at just 16 years old, Yamal possesses exceptional dribbling skills, agility, and a keen eye for goal, thanks to his ability to read the game, which helps him create opportunities for himself and his teammates.
Having already led Spain to glory in the 2024 European Championship, if Yamal can put together a solid run in the World Cup, Spain will be in contention.
France: The Challenger
According to Kalshi's markets, France could be the biggest threat to Spain's ambitions in the 2026 Men's World Cup. The French have a team brimming with talent and depth across all positions, featuring defenders William Saliba and Theo Hernández, top midfielders Aurélien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga, and even 2025 Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele.
However, the key to France's chances rests with Kylian Mbappe. The electrifying forward has been nothing short of sensational since the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, when he propelled his nation to the brink of an epic comeback in the final.
Since then, Mbappe has continued to elevate his blistering pace, technical excellence, and lethal eye for goal, meaning he will likely be at the peak of his powers and motivated by the pursuit of redemption in 2026.
Argentina: The Defending Champions
The main question surrounding Argentina's odds for the 2026 World Cup centers on whether Lionel Messi will feature and what role he'll have with the team.
Following his vindication as the world's best in Qatar 2022, Messi's international and club career has decelerated. While he continues to amaze with Inter Miami in the MLS and remains deadly in front of goal, he's clearly lost a step or two and can't take over games like he once did.
However, his influence and legacy continue to inspire a new generation of Argentine talent. The Albiceleste's victory in the 2024 Copa América showcased the squad's evolution, demonstrating their ability to combine Messi's last few strokes of brilliance with the dynamism of rising stars. With this blend of experience and youth, Argentina is in pursuit of back-to-back World Cup titles.
Brazil, Portugal, and Germany: Dark Horses
Brazil is trying to emerge from a turbulent time for its national team and soccer federation, but the hiring of legendary Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti provides hope.
Portugal, ever the talent producer, is always among the contenders. Having shocked Spain in the 2025 Nations League's final, and with Cristiano Ronaldo still scoring goals at 40, fade them at your own peril.
After a series of underwhelming international performances, Germany has been quietly rebuilding its foundation. Head coach Julian Nagelsmann has put together a solid squad that ran rampant through the European qualifiers, led by Florian Wirtz and Nick Woltemade.
