The two Group C games make up the middle set of games on the opening day of the final round of group games.
Haiti has been eliminated, but this group gets fun among the top three in the placement and advancement scenarios.
Below that, I'll find some futures bets based on my tournament simulations.
Group C
Advancement Scenarios
- Brazil: Could technically be eliminated with a loss to Scotland and a Morocco win or draw against Haiti in a bonkers scenario where Brazil somehow doesn't advance on 4 points. But really we should consider them advanced. They win the group if they beat Scotland and preserve goal difference over Morocco. They finish second with a draw and a Morocco win or draw, or they finish second with a loss and a Morocco loss while preserving goal differential over Morocco.
- Morocco: Like Brazil, they've all but advanced, only losing out if they lose to Haiti and somehow don't advance on 4 points as a third-place team. Morocco wins the group with a win and a Brazil loss or draw, or with a win and a Brazil win but flipping goal differential on Brazil. Morocco will finish second in the group if Scotland wins and Morocco draws, or if they match Brazil's result without flipping goal differential.
- Scotland: A draw likely gets them through at least as a third-place team with 4 points. But they can win the group with a win over Brazil and a Morocco draw/loss, or finish second in the group with a win and a Morocco win.
- Haiti: Haiti is eliminated.
Futures
Scotland are 77.1% to advance by my simulations, and they'd be a heavy underdog in most scenarios where they advance to the Round of 32. I'm shocked they're only -120 to get eliminated in that round considering the scenarios in which they advance. They play either hosts Mexico at the Azteca, Germany, or the Netherlands just north of 95% of the time. Japan makes up another 3.5%, so in 98.5% of advancement scenarios, Scotland should be a moderate to heavy underdog.
I have the Scots getting bounced here 59.3% of the time compared to 54.5% implied odds at -120 for a 4.8% edge.
Pick: Scotland Stage of Elimination – Round of 32 (-120 at FanDuel)
For Brazil, they lost Raphinha to a muscle injury, and it seems unlikely he'll get to play in the near future, if at all for the rest of this World Cup.
But the market has overcorrected for his injury given Brazil have a wealth of attackers to replace him.
My model accounts for this injury and still has Brazil favored to make the quarterfinals at 52.5%. Odds at theScore are +135 for Brazil to reach the quarterfinals, which is 42.6%. That gives this bet a nearly 10% edge by my model's simulations.
Pick: Brazil to Reach the Quarterfinals (+135 at theScore)
