The most important match of the Premier League weekend is on Sunday, with second-placed Manchester City (14-5-5) and defending champions Liverpool (11-7-6) facing off at 11:30 a.m. EST at Anfield in Liverpool, England.
The Citizens need a win and will take the field already knowing the result of league leaders Arsenal against Sunderland. A defeat in this match could leave them nine points behind the top.
Liverpool is favored at a +137 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-175o / +137u) goals.
Let's get into my Man City vs. Liverpool prediction.
Man City vs. Liverpool Prediction
Pick: Liverpool To Win
My Man City vs. Liverpool best bet is on the Reds moneyline at a great value.
Man City vs. Liverpool Odds
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -175 | 2.5 -175o / 137u | +175 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +120 | 2.5 -175o / 137u | +137 |
Man City vs. Liverpool Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Liverpool To Win (+137)
Leg 2: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-200) & Over 2.5 Goals (-175)
Leg 3: Both Teams to Score in the Second Half – Yes (+162)
Liverpool produced one of their best displays of the season last weekend, beating Newcastle 4-1 at Anfield. Arne Slot’s team has also had more time to prepare for this game, thanks to Manchester City competing in the EFL Cup on Wednesday night. As a result, we are tipping the home side to win here.
The Reds come into this game unbeaten in eight home matches across all competitions, having won five, which suggests the most turbulent period is behind Slot’s team.
Liverpool has scored 16 goals across their last four matches in all competitions. They now face a Manchester City side expected to be without key defenders Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias, and John Stones, which will increase the likelihood of the hosts finding the net at Anfield.
Given both sides’ attacking quality and defensive absences, a high-scoring contest with goals for each team appears a realistic outcome.
Statistically, both teams tend to concede more goals in the second half. The Reds allow an average of 0.75 goals at home after halftime, 0.5 more than in the first half. Similarly, the visitors have conceded 1.08 goals in the second half, 0.91 more than in the opening 45 minutes.
Man City vs. Liverpool Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Man City | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 37.2% | 23.9% | 38.9% |
Projected Total Goals
| Man City | Total Goals | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | 2.94 | 1.51 |
Man City vs. Liverpool Betting Analysis
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games against Manchester City, which is why they are the favourites according to bookmakers for Sunday's clash. The latest odds give Arne Slot's side a roughly 44% chance of winning the encounter, which is expected to see at least three goals.
One standout player is Florian Wirtz, who has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player since 20 December, with nine contributions across all competitions. His creativity and vision, showcased during his time with Leverkusen, continue to aid Liverpool.
Both of these teams are accustomed to controlling games. Manchester City ranks first in the Premier League for field tilt (a measurement of territorial dominance, just ahead of Liverpool, who rank third.
The battle for supremacy will be hard fought in this game, so counter-attacking at pace could be more crucial than control.
Liverpool have been the better team in recent games, scoring two wins against City, one at home and one away. City and the Reds also drew two of their recent five games, both 1-1.
