After 103 matches, the World Cup ends today with the 104th and final game.
Spain and Argentina will face off in this final match, the last in Lionel Messi's career in this tournament. Kickoff is set at 3:00 p.m. ET in New Jersey.
Our team of experts has three picks for the match, so let's dive into today's Spain vs Argentina World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spain vs Argentina Team to Win Pick
Spain have justified their status as pre-tournament favorites, building on their success as reigning European champions in 2024 with another outstanding campaign under Luis de la Fuente.
Their dominant, team-oriented display in the semi-final victory over France underlined why they remain the team to beat.
La Roja were in full control against France in the semifinal, effectively stopping the most potent attack in the competition. Their defensive masterclass is best seen in the underlying metrics, conceding a tournament-low 2.15 xGA across seven games.
The team has allowed an average of 6.29 shots and 1.43 shots on target per match — both figures are the second-lowest in the tournament. As a result, Spain has conceded just a single goal, keeping six clean sheets across seven games.
Meanwhile, Argentina offered one of their best knockout stage performances so far, but were also lucky to have been given the chance to play on the front foot with Thomas Tuchel’s switch to a more defensive approach in the second half.
Ultimately, Lionel Scaloni can thank Tuchel for their win, as the introduction of defenders in England's lineup allowed Argentina to maintain momentum. Doing the same against the best defensive team will be significantly harder, making Spain the value pick to lift the trophy.
Pick: Spain To Lift the Trophy (-150)
Spain vs Argentina Result and Total Goals Pick
Spain’s semifinal win came against a France team led by Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, who were scoring freely and posing nightmares for opposing defenses. Still, Spain successfully limited them to just 0.31 xG (expected goals), no big chances, and only three shots inside the box.
If Spain can perform similarly in their defensive third against Argentina in the final, then Lionel Messi and those around him might find it difficult to get on the scoresheet and ultimately overcome Spain in the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium.
Playing seven games in the World Cup 2026 so far, Spain have allowed a tournament-low 2.15 xGA (expected goals against), fewer than any other nation, including teams eliminated much earlier in the competition. They stand at just 0.31 xGA per 90 minutes.
Argentina might find the net, as they have done in all seven matches, but will it be enough to outscore Spain? La Albiceleste have scored two or more goals in each of their seven matches, and will be confident of finding the net here.
Still, Spain’s defensive output, alongside its ability to edge contests against the world’s best footballing nations, makes the 1x2 market odds for them to win rather inviting.
Picks: Spain To Win and Under 3.5 Goals (+180)
Spain vs Argentina Prop Pick
Spain is adept at controlling possession and dictating the pace of a game, which doesn’t lend itself to high throw counts. However, when they face quality opposition, the throw count increases, so we are tipping over 32.5 throws in this match.
At this World Cup, Spain's matches have seen an average of 31.86 throws per game, which is below the line set by the bookmakers in this game. However, there have been 33 or more throws in their last three outings, averaging 37.33 throws.
This clash with Argentina will be just the third game of the World Cup in which Spain is priced at 2.00 or greater on the 1x2 market. The previous two, against France and Portugal, saw 38 and 37 throws respectively.
The final will be just the second time that Argentina has been priced above 2.00 on the 1x2 market at this World Cup. The previous match that fit this criterion was the semifinal against England, which saw 39 throws.
Argentina participated in the last World Cup Final and went on to win the trophy. There were 41 throws in the normal time of that clash against France.
Pick: Match – Over 32.5 Throw-Ins (-125)
