After a third-place finish in the first-ever World Cup in Uruguay in 1930, the USMNT has not advanced past the Round of 16, not even when the country hosted in 1994, as Brazil knocked them out at that stage.
Our Action Network World Cup podcast covered all things USA and wondered if this time around, again on home soil, it's possible to advance past the Round of 16. Host Mike Calabrese, along with experts Sam Ingram and Daniele Fisichella, helps you break down everything you need to know for the 2026 World Cup.
Continue below for our USMNT preview, prediction and picks.
United States Analysis and Tournament Progress
Pochettino's Role
Sam Ingram: Up until this point, Mauricio Pochettino's job as the USMNT coach has just been a lot of learning, getting to know the players. He trialed around 80 players and tested out different formations. But if we go off results alone, which is probably a little unfair in these early stages of his tenure, then you'd probably say it's been fairly underwhelming. The team lost to Panama and Canada to finish fourth in the Nations League in 2025 and also lost to Mexico in the final of the 2025 Gold Cup.
However, this summer is the big one. This is what he was hired to do: prepare this team and get them progressing toward the last stages and into the knockout.
Daniele Fisichella: Pochettino's got a much harder job than other international managers because he has players in 16 different leagues in 12 countries. Other managers like Thomas Tuchel, Didier Deschamps, or Luis De la Fuente have it much easier. They see the players playing in their domestic league or where they live, week in and week out.
For Pochettino, whose philosophy is so embedded in the way the teams play—possession-based, high-intensity—not being able, of course, to coach day by day, and having that hurdle to overcome, with the distance and players so dispersed, it's going to be difficult. That's perhaps why this team still lacks identity, because against lesser teams this autumn, they played with possession and up the pitch, but when they faced stronger sides, against whom they were defeated (Portugal, Belgium), they retreated more into a medium block. So there is a little bit of uncertainty around the tactical setup.
USNMT Strengths
Daniele Fisichella: This is probably the most talented crop of players the USNMT has ever had since soccer was established in the country. But perhaps the team and the players haven't developed at the pace that the Americans would have expected. Pochettino himself admitted, "We do not have any player in the top 100 in the world." And I think that's probably a fair reflection that progress is slow.
The strength is probably that they are at the peak of their powers. There are also young and emerging players. From a tactical point of view, I think the strength is definitely the defense, with a lot of them having Premier League experience. I'd say half of the players are defensively minded, so definitely the strength of the team lies in the back line, probably the wing-backs as well. I think that's where Pochettino is going to place his attention.
Sam Ingram: Well, I'll agree with Daniele. I think the spine of the US national team looks pretty good. Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Folarin Balogun up top. I like that. Behind that, though, it's probably where the most obvious weakness is for me: the goalkeeping department.
Matt Turner, with 53 caps for the US, Matt Freese has 14, and Chris Brady has zero. I saw a lot of Turner in the Premier League, and I'm really not sold on him. Gone are the days of a Tim Howard or a Brad Friedel.
Expectations and Measure of Success
Daniele Fisichella: USNMT would need to show that they belong to the top 15-20 nations in the world; hence, they should avoid defeats against Australia, Paraguay, and Turkiye at their group stage. They should try to finish at the top of Group D, which is relatively easy for them, as any other group that contains the host nations.
Overall, I think they need to demonstrate that they can control games without relying too much on the counter. Provide spectators and US fans with the excitement of a team that at least tries to dominate. That's why they brought in Pochettino, a manager with extensive experience in European football.
Sam Ingram: If the USNMT gets into the Round of 16, they could probably play Argentina. If you go out losing to the champions there, I think that's fair enough. So, the Round of 16 feels fair enough to me. I could see why, if you got to the Round of 32 and played Egypt and then were knocked out by them, it might be a little bit underwhelming, but Egypt is a good team.
So I would not be surprised if they were knocked out around the Round of 32, but in terms of a successful World Cup tournament for a host nation, the Round of 16 is fair enough.
Model Projections and Data
Daniele Fisichella: There is a clear advantage of playing at home, first of all, because you are seeded in your group, so you don't face any of the top contenders. And look at the groups of Mexico, Canada, and the United States — they are relatively easy groups.
When we look at the statistics, our predictive model BETSiE suggests that home nations in the World Cup start every game with a 0.57-goal advantage. Backing the home nations against the spread has a return on investment of around 62% on the Asian handicap market, especially when the home nations are not considered among the favorites.
These are the USNMT odds to win the group (43%), make it into the top two (73%) and qualify (84%). But these are the lowest projected points by BETSiE for any group winner, so I think it is a double-edged sword; it's going to be nervy.
Sam Ingram: If we look at recent history, there are only two host nations, South Africa in 2010 and Qatar in 2022, which have gone out at the initial group stage. So that is good news for the US.
There have been six outright winners as host nations, two runners-up, three third-place finishes, two fourth places, five quarterfinalists, including Mexico twice, and two last-16, round-of-16 eliminations, which also included the USA.
The win percentage of World Cup hosts rose from 48.6% when not hosting to 56.5% when hosting. Their draw percentage dropped from 30% when not hosting to 24.3% when hosting.
United States World Cup Best Bets
US Top Scorer: Folarin Balogun
Sam Ingram: Christian Pulisic is currently the favorite to be the top US team goal scorer. Now, considering his goal against Senegal was his first in 2026, there are question marks around whether he should be the favorite in that market. The second favorite, Folarin Balogun, is at around +400. He has been scoring a lot of goals for Monaco. I'd probably pick Balogun as the top US team goal scorer.
US to Win Group D
Daniele Fisichella: Team USA to win Group D, which is a relatively easy group, is at +137. That is an implied probability based on the odds of 42%, which is very, very close to what our statistical model BETSiE suggests: 42.9%. Our model rarely gets it wrong. Of course, it's going to be a competitive environment, with the USNMT only projected to finish with 5.29 points. It's going to be very, very tight.
US Eliminated in Round of 16
Daniele Fisichella: If +137 doesn't seem great, you might want to go a level up: stage of elimination, Round of 16. Here, the odds increase and the value is +105. The implied probability is 31%. BETSiE gives them only a 27.5% chance of elimination in the Round of 16, but that increases if you pick them to depart in the Round of 32. Here, you are backing the US to win the group, then face one of the eight best third-place teams, and, in the Round of 16, potentially play Belgium. If they do not win the group, then they face the number two team in Group G, which is Belgium, Egypt, Iran, or New Zealand, and the potential Round of 16 is against Argentina. So either way, the round of 16 is very, very tough.
USMNT World Cup Parlay
Daniele Fisichella: If you believe that our statistical model is correct and the USMNT wins the group, you can combine that for a better payout with the elimination at the Round of 16. Of course, you can do it using Playbook, which has a nice bet builder so you can increase your stake.
