The World Cup knockout stage continues today with three matches: Brazil vs. Japan, Germany vs. Paraguay and Netherlands vs. Morocco.
Our team of experts has come up with a pick for each of Monday's three Round of 32 games, so let's dive into today's World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 9:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brazil to Qualify & Score Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
Brazil won five of their previous six matches (one draw), and even though they are facing a resilient Japan side, which is unbeaten in its past 10 games (seven wins and three draws), Brazil is a massive favorite to reach the Round of 16.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team has far more quality on the roster, and Japan will be playing without their best player, Takefusa Kubo, who is out with an injury.
Brazil has won seven of 10 all-time head-to-head meetings (two draws and one loss). They met only once at the World Cup, and Brazil won that game 4-1 in Germany in 2006.
They struggled offensively in the World Cup opener against Morocco and scored one goal from 1.26 xG (Expected Goals). However, they scored three apiece in the next two matches against Haiti and Scotland to secure a top spot in Group C.
Japan, on the other hand, conceded over 1.5 goals in four of their past 11 games, including one at this tournament when they drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in the opener.
Pick: Brazil to Qualify & Score Over 1.5 Goals (-115 at DraftKings)
Germany Win & Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
Germany scored a joint tournament-high 10 goals (France and the Netherlands also scored 10) from a 6.76 xG (Expected Goals). Only Canada, Brazil, and Belgium had a higher xG than them.
Along with France, Germany attempted a tournament-high 22 shots on target and scored 10 goals, for a 18.87% conversion rate.
Paraguay, on the other hand, is one of the lowest-scoring teams in this World Cup. They scored two goals from a 1.10 xG, which is good, but had only five attempts on target.
Considering that Germany allowed four goals from just seven shots on target against them, Paraguay will have a chance to score if they create one or two goal-scoring opportunities.
Still, one of the favorites to win the World Cup, Germany has the quality and tactical knowledge to see off a gritty South American side. Expect Germany to score three goals and progress to the Round of 16 with ease.
Pick: Germany Win & Over 2.5 Goals (-115 at bet365)
Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score – Yes (+142)
The Netherlands have scored 10 goals in this World Cup, and not only did they score over 1.5 goals in each group stage contest, but all three of those games produced over 2.5 goals and goals on both ends.
Ronald Koeman’s men have overperformed when it comes to xG (Expected Goals), scoring 10 goals from 5.2 xG, and 20 of their 40 shots were on target, good enough for an astonishing 25% conversion rate.
Morocco, on the other hand, had a higher xG than the Netherlands, but scored only six goals from 6.13 xG. Still, both teams scored in two of their three group stage matches.
Both teams scored in six of the Netherlands’ past seven games, while five of those matches also produced over 2.5 goals.
Additionally, both teams scored in five of Morocco’s previous eight games, and interestingly, a 2-1 scoreline took place in all three head-to-head meetings so far. The Netherlands won two of those encounters, including the previous friendly duel back in May 2017.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score – Yes (+142 at DraftKings)
