The World Cup group stage is nearing its conclusion. That’s why, for the final round of group play, this week’s action will feature simultaneous matches with six-game slates. Today, Groups D, E, and F take center stage, and by the end of the day, we’ll know which teams from this lot will join the USMNT and Germany in the knockout stage.
So, let's dive into today's World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7:00 p.m. | |
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  | 10:00 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Germany vs. Ecuador
Ecuador's tournament has been a story of missed opportunities. They are the competition's biggest underperformer in terms of expected goals (xG), having generated 3.85 xG from 39 shots without scoring a single goal.
With 16 of those shots on target, it's clear the intent is there, but the finishing has been absent. Facing elimination, they have no choice but to push forward from the opening whistle, which should finally lead to goals.
Germany provides the perfect opponent for a high-scoring game. They have been one of the most potent attacking teams, having already scored nine goals. However, their defense has not been airtight, conceding goals to both Ivory Coast and the group's underdog, Curacao.
This tendency to leak goals, combined with the likelihood of squad rotation now that they've secured first place, opens the door for Ecuador's desperate attack.
Julian Nagelsmann's German side has won 11 consecutive matches and will not want to lose momentum. Even with changes, players like Deniz Undav—who has five goal involvements as a substitute—provide immense quality.
The combination of Ecuador's must-win urgency and Germany's offensive firepower points toward a match where both sides get on the scoresheet, making this pick a solid bet.
Pick: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-145)
Ivory Coast vs. Curacao
Ivory Coast's depth should prove decisive in the second half. Substitutes have played a huge role in the tournament, and Ivory Coast possesses superior bench talent. Against tired legs, players like Seko Fofana, Simon Adingra, and Nicolas Pepe can provide the spark needed to break the deadlock.
This was evident in their opener when substitute Amad Diallo scored the winner against Ecuador, underscoring the team's ability to find a late breakthrough.
Diallo is also a strong candidate to score at any time. He leads the team with two shots on target and shares the team-high in xG with 0.49. Against a compact Curaçao defense, his ability to find space and create his own shot will be crucial.
After his game-winning goal against Ecuador, expect him to be a focal point of the Ivorian attack as they look to unlock a defense that has shown it can be difficult to breach.
Pick: Amad Diallo Anytime Goalscorer (+125)
Netherland vs. Tunisia
Of all the competing nations at the tournament, Tunisia has arguably had the worst World Cup. Losing 5-1 against Sweden on the opening day, and then sacking head coach Sabri Lamouchi before a 4-0 defeat to Japan, is as bad as it gets at the World Cup.
It doesn’t get any easier for Tunisia next. The African nation faces a Netherlands side that beat Sweden 5-1 last time out. Given that Tunisia were beaten by the same scoreline against Sweden, that should ring alarm bells for any Tunisia supporters and players alike.
We can back the Netherlands to win in both halves, something that they won comfortably last time out after scoring two goals before half-time and three in the second half against Sweden.
Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, projects just a 0.52 projected goal output for Tunisia, indicating that the African nation might struggle to find the net. If that’s the case, then only two Netherlands goals will be required to win the proposed selection.
Pick: Netherlands To Win Both Halves (-115)
Sweden vs. Japan
This is largely driven by Sweden's recent trends. In their last eight matches, both teams have scored every single time. During this period, they have averaged an impressive 2.13 goals for, but a concerning 2.38 goals against.
This pattern has continued in the 2026 tournament, where they won 5-1 against Tunisia but also conceded, and then were defeated 5-1 by the Netherlands. Even in a dominant victory, their backline was breached.
Sweden’s attack, led by the formidable duo of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, is one of the best in the competition. Against the Netherlands, Sweden still managed to generate an expected goals (xG) of 1.01, proving they can create chances even against top-tier opposition.
Japan, meanwhile, comes into this game with significant offensive momentum. After a hard-fought 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, they secured a dominant 4-0 victory over Tunisia. Their attack is agile, mobile, and inventive. Feyenoord striker Ayase Ueda is in excellent form, and the team has shown a willingness to commit players forward and attack inside the penalty area.
Given Sweden’s defensive struggles, which were thoroughly exposed by the Dutch, Japan’s fluid offense is well-equipped to create numerous scoring opportunities.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
USA vs. Turkiye
The primary angle for this match centers on Turkiye's baffling inability to score despite overwhelming offensive pressure. Through two games, they have taken an incredible 62 shots without a single goal to show for it.
This is the highest two-game shot total without a goal since records began in 1966. Their expected goals (xG) figure of 3.53 suggests they are due for a positive regression, and a match with no stakes is the perfect environment for their talented attackers to finally convert.
For the United States, the pressure is off. Having already secured the top spot in Group D, manager Mauricio Pochettino is expected to rotate his lineup heavily. However, as a host nation, the USMNT will not want to disappoint the home crowd at SoFi Stadium.
Even a second-string lineup possesses enough quality to create chances and score against a Turkish defense that has little to play for but pride.
Given that the outcome is not critical for tournament progression, the game should be open and free-flowing. Turkiye will be desperate to score at least one goal before heading home, while the USA will look to maintain momentum.
This scenario strongly supports the total going over 2.5 goals.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-150)
Australia vs. Paraguay
The logic behind this pick is heavily influenced by the group stage permutations. A draw is a mutually beneficial result, likely ensuring both Paraguay and Australia qualify for the knockout rounds.
This scenario often leads to risk-averse tactics, where neither side is willing to overcommit offensively and leave themselves vulnerable. Expect both teams to prioritize defensive shape and control over all-out attack.
Paraguay has demonstrated a strong defensive foundation, conceding only 10 goals during its 18 South American qualifiers. They are comfortable playing without the ball, averaging just 38% possession during that campaign. Their offensive metrics are less impressive, with an average of just 0.43 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in this tournament, one of the lowest marks among all teams.
Recent history supports a low-scoring game, as only one team has found the net in three of Paraguay’s last five matches.
Australia also enters this match with questions about their attacking firepower. Against the USA, they managed just 0.35 xG and only two shots on target. The Socceroos have seen goals at a premium in their recent games, with only one team scoring in eight of their last eight contests.
If Paraguay sets up to defend and secure the point they need, Australia may struggle to break down their organized low block, which could lead to a stalemate with few clear-cut chances.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-165)
