Like Group H, Group G also has a lot going on for their group scenarios, so bear with me.
I'll discuss the advancement scenarios along with the other teams in the group and what scenarios lie ahead for each team's final game.
Below that, I'll find some futures bets based on my World Cup simulations. Let's dive into the World Cup Group G advancement scenarios and top World Cup futures.
World Cup Group G
World Cup Group G Advancement Scenarios
- Egypt: A win clinches top spot in the group. A draw puts them in some potential tiebreaking scenarios with a Belgium win. A draw and a Belgium draw/loss means Egypt win the group. A loss allows Egypt to finish second or third in the group.
- Iran: A win over Egypt gives them first in the group if Belgium does not win. If Belgium does win, it comes down to tiebreakers. A draw advances Iran with just over 90% probability, according to the Third Place Dashboard. A loss and Iran is out.
- Belgium: A draw advances Belgium with over 95% probability, per the Third Place Dashboard. A win gives them a chance to win the group, but they either need to flip goal differential on Egypt if Egypt draws with Iran, or gain goal differential on Iran in the event of an Iranian win. If Belgium win but Egypt wins, they finish second in the group.
- New Zealand: Must win to advance.
World Cup Group G Futures
I gave an Egyptian future out in my third place best bets piece, so let's turn to the other teams in the group.
Surprisingly, I have some value on Iran to get eliminated in the Round of 16, which might sound crazy. But when you consider if they advance, they'll face Australia almost 40% of the time and be a near coin-flip with the Aussies, it starts to add up.
Rough calculations of 60% advancement, 40% facing Australia, and 50% advancing past Australia adds up to 12% chance to advance past Australia, where they'd almost surely face Argentina.
Their next most likely opponent would be Switzerland by finishing third in the group, and there's even some scenarios they win the group and get a third-place team like South Korea or Algeria, where they'd stand a chance to advance before getting eliminated.
The value is quite thin at +460 at FanDuel, which equates to 17.9% implied probability. I have Iran getting bounced in this round at 18.3%, so it's within the range of model error and noise, but if some longer odds pop up elsewhere prior to kickoff of the final group games, it could be a bet.
Pick: Lean Iran Stage of Elimination Round of 16 | Bet at +525 or longer
