Group I is pretty straightforward with the advancement scenarios for the 2026 World Cup.
I'll discuss that along with the other teams in the group and what scenarios lie ahead for each team's final game.
Below that, I'll find some futures bets based on my World Cup simulations.
Let's dive into the World Cup Group I advancement scenarios and top World Cup futures.
World Cup Group I
World Cup Group I Advancement Scenarios
- France: Have advanced. Clinch the group with a win or a draw against Norway.
- Norway:Have advanced. Clinch the group with a win over France.
- Senegal: A must-win for Senegal to have a shot at advancing as one of the third-place teams. A one-goal win puts them better than a coinflip to advance, but a multi-goal win would put them at 85%+ according to the Third Place Dashboard.
- Iraq: Also in must-win mode, but must beat Senegal by at least three goals to have a 50/50 shot or better of advancing.
World Cup Group I Futures
France are just under 30% by my model to get bounced in the Round of 16. A couple of things that hurt them are they are most likely to face Germany there if they win their group, and if they finish second in their group, they get Ivory Coast in the Round of 32, then Brazil if all goes to form.
France will be favored against Germany or Brazil, but as we've seen, they've had a couple of slow starts. They can't afford that against another powerhouse.
At +280 odds that's 26.3% implied compared to my model's 29.9% for a 3.6% edge. The edge is thin and the odds are long, so size the unit down.
Pick: France Stage of Elimination – Round of 16 (+280 at theScore) – 0.25 units
