The 2026 World Cup group stage has officially come to an end.
Out of the original 48 teams, only 32 remain in the hunt for soccer's most coveted trophy. To kick off the knockout stage, our staff of experts has put together their best picks and predictions for the Round of 32.
So, let's dive into the World Cup Round of 32 best bets.
Our Staff World Cup Round of 32 Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup Round of 32 matchups that our staff is targeting. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Date & Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7/1 — 8:00 p.m. | |
  | 6/28 — 3:00 p.m. | |
  | 6/29 — 1:00 p.m. | |
| 6/29 — 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 6/29 — 4:30 p.m. | |
| 6/29 — 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 6/29 — 9:00 p.m. | |
  | 6/30 — 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 6/30 — 5:00 p.m. | |
  | 7/3 — 2:00 p.m. | |
  | 7/3 — 6:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
By William Boor
This isn't the most aggressive bet in the world, but there will be plenty of time for that over the rest of the tournament — and throughout the entirety of this article.
So, instead of chasing a big payday or targeting a niche market, I'm simply backing USA to win. After all, that's the point of this tournament, right? Bosnia and Herzegovina went 1-1-1 in Group B, while the USMNT finished 2-1 in D.
Mauricio Pochettino's squad got off to a fast start, winning each of its first two games before losing in the last minute of its group stage finale. Still, there were encouraging signs to take from that loss and the opening three matches.
Folarin Balogun, who has emerged as a breakout star this tournament, didn't play in that group stage finale and will be back against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Additionally, Christian Pulisic, who missed the match against Australia, returned in the second half against Turkiye and appears ready to go after nursing a calf injury. His return to play is obviously a big deal for the USMNT and will help the home team get past Bosnia and Herzegovina and into the Round of 16.
Picks: USA Moneyline (-250) | Folarin Balogun Anytime Goalscorer (+120)
South Africa vs. Canada
Canada enters this matchup as the favorite, and for good reason. The squad boasts superior individual talent, with players like Jonathan David and Cyle Larin leading a clinical attack.
David's underlying metrics, including a 2.59 expected goals (xG) tally in the group stage, rank him among the most dangerous forwards in the competition.
While South Africa has shown defensive resilience, their attack has been lackluster, generating just 1.95 expected goals from open play across three matches.
Combining Canada's qualification with a total goals under provides a way to back the stronger team while acknowledging the typically tight nature of the knockout stage.
Historically, these matches see fewer goals, and with six of South Africa’s last seven games going under 2.5 goals, this trend seems likely to continue. However, there is also value in considering a draw. Canada lost a significant advantage when their second-place group finish forced them to play this match in the United States instead of on home soil.
South Africa, after a disastrous opening match, has settled into the tournament, showing grit in a draw with Czechia and a win over South Korea. They have conceded just a single goal in their last two games.
Given that 10 of Canada's last 13 matches have finished with fewer than three goals, the conditions are ripe for a low-scoring, tightly contested affair that could easily end level after 90 minutes.
Picks: Canada To Qualify & Under 4 Total Goals (-125) | Draw (+260)
Brazil vs. Japan
By: Sam Farley
Brazil is consistently a favorite pick for most and the World Cup doesn’t really start until we see those famous yellow shorts, but their campaign has been confusing so far.
The Brazilians were poor for large chunks of the opener against Morocco, but subsequent 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland have eased the pressure. However, we really need to factor in the quality of those teams.
Now, full disclosure, I had Japan as a sleeper pick for this World Cup, and nothing I’ve seen from them through three games has changed this opinion.
In many ways, this Japan team is the antithesis of Brazil.
Brazil has a collection of great players, but at times, they look like individuals. The Japanese, while inferior on a player-by-player basis, have coherence and a real unity when they’re on the field.
In the group stages, Brazil registered a marginally higher average xG (expected goals) of 1.59 to Japan’s 1.14, but were worse defensively than Japan, with 1.28 xGA (expected goals against) compared to 1.11.
That’s quite shocking given that the Japanese played both the Dutch and the Swedes, who had both Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokores up front.
Back in October of last year, Brazil got beaten by that Japanese team, 3-2, albeit in a friendly. They’ve also beaten England and Germany since the last World Cup and arguably one of the quickest improving countries in the sport right now. Their 3-4-3 gives them real width, which can cause Brazil’s fullbacks, their weakness, issues.
The midfield duo of Daichi Kamada and Ao Tanaka has the technical ability to keep the ball ticking over, retain possession and play deadly through balls into those channels or into the feet of Ayase Ueda, who has had a good World Cup so far.
Brazil is the rightful favorite, especially given the attacking talent at their disposal, but this game is far closer to a coin toss than it is +450 odds that imply just an 18.2% chance of a Japanese win.
Pick: Japan ML (+450 — Bet365)
Brazil vs. Japan
By: Camil Straschnoy
On paper, Brazil faces a demanding test. Japan has already proven they are not intimidated by football’s traditional heavyweights. During the last World Cup, they secured stunning victories over Germany and Spain, and in this tournament's group stage, they put up a fierce fight in a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands.
However, this matchup hinges on an undeniable tactical reality. Brazil’s greatest asset is its formidable attack, led by Vinícius Júnior and Matheus Cunha, who have netted four and three goals in the tournament, respectively.
Conversely, Japan’s Achilles' heel remains its backline; notably, Tunisia — the lowest-ranked team in this World Cup — is the only opponent that has failed to score against them.
The metrics further back this trend: Brazil has scored over 1.5 goals in eight of its last 11 matches. Japan, on the other hand, has conceded over 1.5 goals in four of their previous 11 outings.
This wager is not a blind backing of Brazil to advance, despite their status as heavy favorites. In fact, their most recent encounter suggests that a Brazil Over 1.5 Goals prop can cash even if an upset occurs: on October 14, the Samurai Blue edged out a 3-2 victory over the Seleção.
Pick: Brazil Over 1.5 Goals (-122 — DraftKings)
Germany vs. Paraguay
Despite their recent setback against a much more motivated Ecuador, the Germans haven't shown any glaring weaknesses and are overwhelming favorites against Paraguay in this Round of 32.
Their issue might have been the lack of a true goalscorer, especially when we consider the rich history of German strikers, but Kai Havertz has delivered lately for Arsenal and Germany without being a true target man in the box.
Also, manager Julian Nagelsmann has super sub Deniz Undav, who has scored three goals in this tournament coming from the bench.
Paraguay barely made it here, after getting thrashed 4-1 by the USMNT, beating Turkiye 1-0 in a match in which they were outshot 33 to 6, and then a 0-0 draw with Australia to clinch a spot in this round as one of the best third-place teams.
The South Americans are better known for their defensive prowess, but Germany should be able to wear them down. Most importantly, in their current form, I don't see Paraguay getting one past Manuel Neuer.
Pick: Germany To Win To Nil (+110, bet365)
Germany vs. Paraguay
By Fernando Romero
Germany enters this matchup as a heavy favorite, and it makes sense, given that Paraguay only qualified after grinding out a very defensive display against Turkiye and Australia. With Paraguay bound to settle for a draw from kick off, the Under looks as an appealing proposition.
The South American squad has shown it lacks many offensive qualities. It has often made up for it with grit and determination, but it won't be enough against the Germans.
Their 4-1 loss in their debut against the United States showed what happens when Paraguay aims for a more open style of play, so we can confidently expect them to lock down their defense, play with tight lines and hope for a lucky break or a penalty shootout.
It could very well be enough to limit Julian Nagelsmann and the team. The former Bayern Munich coach insists on a strikerless formation with Havertz, Wirtz, Musiala and Sané, a ploy that almost cost him against Ivory Coast before subbing on Deniz Undav came to the rescue.
Their defeat to Ecuador means the Germans have not scored more than 2 goals in two of the group-stage games, with the 7-1 thrashing of World Cup debutant Curaçao the only exception.
Put a possession-heavy attack that struggles to break down deep defenses and a gritty defensive side that knows its best chance is to frustrate its opponent, and you have the perfect formula for a low-scoring game.
Pick: Germany vs Paraguay Under 2.5 Goals (+112, FanDuel)
Netherlands vs. Morocco
The Netherlands has one of the most explosive attacks at this World Cup — 10 goals in 3 group games, with Gakpo and Brobbey combining for 5 of them. They have scored in every single match. Morocco is not stopping that attack.
Morocco isn’t here to defend either. They scored six goals in the group stage — a 1-1 draw with Brazil and a 4-2 comeback win over Haiti. Brahim Díaz registered three assists in the group stage — two of them to Ismael Saibari. Both of these stars will look to create chances on Monday night.
The Dutch have not kept a clean sheet at this entire tournament, conceding four goals across the three games. This defense has been exposed repeatedly and Morocco will get through.
Both teams have scored in every match at this World Cup. Their last five head-to-head meetings have produced goals at both ends 80% of the time.
Two attack-minded teams in this match make both teams to score at +100 the best bet on the board.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (+100 — Bet365)
Ivory Coast vs. Norway
By Franco Diaz
Norway looked exactly as I expected throughout the group stage. A lethal attack led by Erling Haaland, orchestrated by Martin Odegaard, and fueled by Antonio Nusa proved too much for opponents. They scored four against Iraq, three versus Senegal, and even found the net against France — despite conceding in every one of those matches.
On the other side, we find the dark horse of Group E. Ivory Coast discovered a breakout star in Yan Diomande during the group stage.
The young winger, now with RB Leipzig, has become one of the tournament's biggest talking points, with reports claiming the club recently rejected a $100 million bid from Liverpool.
His pace and technical ability have given the Elephants a dangerous weapon down the left flank.
Both teams have the firepower to punish mistakes, but neither defense has inspired much confidence. Ivory Coast must avoid conceding unnecessary set pieces against Norway, while the Vikings will need to be wary of the Elephants' pace on the counterattack.
That's why I'm backing Both Teams to Score at -132; but if you're looking to be a little more aggressive, Haaland is always a strong option to find the net.
Picks: Both Teams to Score | Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (+127 — FanDuel)
France vs. Sweden
By Carlos Avilan
France has only proven what we all thought of them, remaining one of the top two candidates, along with Spain, to lift the World Cup trophy on July 19th.
Kylian Mbappe is poised to become the first player ever to repeat as World Cup Golden Boot winner, whether in this edition or a future one, after earning such honors in Qatar 2022. His lethal scoring rate supports that, as he has netted 16 goals in 17 WC matches.
That he didn't score any in their 4-1 win against Norway is just added motivation to add another one here against a Swedish team that already conceded five against the Netherlands.
That brings us to our second leg of this parlay. All three of France's matches had three or more total goals, while Sweden's games only missed that mark in their latest: a 1-1 draw with Japan. Before that, they totaled six in each match: their 5-1 victory against Tunisia and the aforementioned 5-1 loss to the Netherlands.
This match won't change the nature of either team, so expect three or more goals here.
Picks: Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer / Over 2.5 Goals (+130 — DraftKings)
Australia vs. Egypt
By: Camil Straschnoy
Securing Egypt at plus-money to win in regulation against Australia feels like a market mispricing. Oddsmakers seem to be overreacting to Egypt's recent draw against Iran.
Prior to that bump, the Pharaohs went toe-to-toe with Belgium in a 1-1 draw and comfortably dispatched New Zealand 3-1.
The current line likely reflects uncertainty surrounding Mohamed Salah, who was substituted in the second half of the last match.
However, judging by how he looked walking off the pitch and subsequent comments from manager Hossam Hassan, the injury does not appear to be a major concern.
Even if the star forward is limited, Egypt boasts a superior squad. Furthermore, any lingering doubt regarding Salah's fitness actually creates value elsewhere on the board: Omar Marmoush Anytime Goalscorer at +320.
If Salah is sidelined or operating below 100%, the Manchester City striker is perfectly positioned to serve as Egypt's primary goal-scoring threat.
Picks: Egypt Moneyline (+150) | Sprinkle: Omar Marmoush Anytime Goalscorer (+320)
Argentina vs. Cape Verde
By Franco Diaz
We've seen an unstoppable Lionel Messi throughout the group stage, and I expect that to continue — at least through the Round of 32. Five goals in his first two matches allowed him to get a well-earned rest in Argentina's group finale against Jordan.
Despite several injury scares leading up to the World Cup — including Emiliano Martinez's fractured hand, Cristian Romero's injury, Julian Alvarez's ankle issue, Nicolas Tagliafico's hamstring strain, and Nico Paz's knee problem —Argentina proved they have the quality and depth to excel on both ends of the pitch. That balance will be critical now that the knockout stage has arrived.
Cape Verde may not have advanced in flashy fashion, qualifying with three draws, but they deserve plenty of credit. Vozinha was spectacular, keeping a clean sheet against Spain, helping his side score twice against Uruguay, and delivering another clean sheet against Saudi Arabia.
I don't see much value in any of the match lines, especially with more than 85% of the bets backing Argentina. Instead, I'm targeting Enzo Fernández as an anytime goalscorer.
Enzo is the definition of a world-class box-to-box midfielder — arguably the best in the world right now, and there's a reason Real Madrid reportedly has him at the top of its wishlist.
With Messi likely to draw constant attention from Cape Verde's defense, I expect Enzo to exploit the space behind those defensive lines and finally score his first goal of the tournament.
Pick: Enzo Fernández Anytime Goal Scorer
