2023 WNBA Futures | Picks, Best Bets for Win Totals Before Opening Night
Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Natasha Cloud, Myisha Hines-Allen, Elena Delle Donne, Kristi Toliver, and Ariel Atkins of the Washington Mystics.
The 2023 WNBA season is finally here. After an offseason of intrigue and a multitude of odds-shifting moves, the regular season begins tonight with four games.
Before that, however, it’s time to dive into the futures market. Before these teams tip off their 40-game season, our WNBA analysts have scoured the futures market in search of value, and they have found plenty.
Here are our best future bets for the 2023 WNBA season.
2023 WNBA Best Future Bets
Click on bet to skip ahead
|Atlanta Dream Over|
|Connecticut Sun Over|
|Washington Mystics Over|
|Minnesota Lynx Under|
Atlanta Dream Over 19.5 Wins (-115)
Odds via Caesars
Matt Moore: The Atlanta Dream got off to a 12-14 start last season before slinking to a 2-8 finish to the season. The Dream traded Tiffany Hayes during the offseason, but signed Allisha Gray out of Dallas, which will give them a boost along with Rhyne Howard’s development after a Rookie of the Year campaign.
Atlanta finished fifth in defensive rating, which made them a great bet ATS last season. With internal development and better shooting with Gray and Aari McDonald, there’s a good chance the Dream are a playoff contender.
Connecticut Sun Over 22.5 Wins (-120)
Odds via FanDuel
Jim Turvey: This is a team that was, far and away, the best team by net rating in the W last season, and will have plenty of continuity for 2023.
Of course, arguably the biggest area of non-continuity is likely why this number is so low. Head coach Curt Miller moved to L.A. in the offseason, and the Sun now turn to Stephanie White as his replacement. White last coached in the league in 2016, so there will inevitably be a learning period as the players adjust to a new style.
This team also lost Jonquel Jones and Courtney Williams in the offseason, but I am less bothered by those losses. Jones was famously getting less minutes than Sixth Woman of the Year Brionna Jones in several postseason games last year, and Brionna Jones should thrive in her new spot in the starting lineup.
As for the loss of Williams, the Sun brought in Tiffany Hayes, who can fill it up as well as anyone, so that loss should be mitigated as well.
The only real fear here is that this is a bit of an older team, and that Miller leaving could be a bigger loss than realized. But the bar is so low to clear this number (the Sun were the equivalent to a 32-win team last season by net rating and adjusted to 40 games), that it is still a best bet on the over.
Washington Mystics Over 24.5 Wins (-110)
Odds via Caesars
Maria Marino: The Washington Mystics went 22-14 a year ago with Elena Delle Donne only playing 25 games. She was selective with travel and cautious with rest as part of a plan by the team’s medical staff to ensure she wouldn’t regress following back surgeries.
This offseason, the two-time MVP was actually able to train, rather than just rehab, and doesn’t foresee playing restrictions. The Mystics should be able to win three more games than last season, especially with four more chances thanks to a 40-game schedule.
Minnesota Lynx Under 16.5 Wins (+100)
Odds via Caesars
Jim Turvey: The Lynx are in an interesting spot. They are fresh off missing the postseason for the first time since 2010. That was a team, however, playing for the most part without their best player: Napheesa Collier. This is also a team coached by Cheryl Reeve, one of the greatest coaches of all time.
On the other hand, last year’s team had Sylvia Fowles, who retired in the offseason, and Reeve is a big picture coach who is by no means unaware of the talent coming through in the next two draft classes.
I also am very interested to see how Collier looks in 2023. By some of the more advanced metrics (win shares; on-off +/-), she was actually best in her rookie season—putting out a near MVP level of production. The next two seasons were still excellent, but not quite at that rookie season level. If she’s closer to that Top 20 level compared to the Top 5 level she flashed, this roster starts to look a lot more like one angling for a top pick than an above .500 record.
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