The Connecticut Sun (1-6) and Golden State Valkyries (3-2) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
The Valkyries are favored by -12.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 159.5 (-115o / -105u). The Valkyries are a -800 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +550 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sun vs. Valkyries predictions and WNBA picks.
Sun vs. Valkyries Odds, Pick
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 159.5 -115o / -105u | +550 |
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 159.5 -115o / -105u | -800 |
- Sun vs. Valkyries Spread: Sun +12.5 (-110), Valkyries -12.5 (-110)
- Sun vs. Valkyries Over/Under: 159.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Sun vs. Valkyries Moneyline: Sun +550, Valkyries -800
- Sun vs. Valkyries Best Bet: Aaliyah Edwards Under 9.5 Points (-110)
Sun vs. Valkyries Preview
The rebuilding Sun will visit the valiant Valkyries, with each team coming off a loss.
Losing is nothing new for Connecticut. The Sun have dropped six of seven to open the season and sit firmly in the WNBA cellar. This five-game trip most recently featured a two-game split in Seattle, including Friday’s ugly 77-59 defeat.
After an offseason of change and with a move to Houston looming, Brittney Griner – probable for this game despite a strained rib costing her the last four contests – leads the Sun in scoring with 15 points per game across three starts. Rookie Aneesah Morrow (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG) has done most of her damage off the bench, while Aaliyah Edwards has averaged 10 points in just 21.3 minutes per game in four contests.
Golden State has alternated wins and losses over its last four games. The Valkyries split a two-game trip with a lopsided 87-70 victory over the championship-favorite Liberty in New York before suffering a tough 90-82 setback in Indiana on Friday to finish the back-to-back.
It’s no surprise to see a bit of inconsistency from a team in its second season, even after last year’s playoff appearance, but reigning Coach of the Year Natalie Nakase still has her group in the top-half of the WNBA standings.
This first meeting of the season between the Valkyries and Sun will tip-off a four-game homestand for Golden State.
Former Connecticut reserve Veronica Burton paces Golden State’s starting unit with 15 points and 6.4 assists a night. Gabby Williams (13.2 PPG), Janelle Salaun (12.6 PPG), and Kayla Thornton (10.5 PPG) are also scoring in double-figures.
Williams has been a tremendous free agent addition. The two-time All-Defensive Team selection is currently second on the odds board (+600) for Defensive Player of the Year.
While the Valkyries are certainly the superior team, this game could be ugly. Connecticut (41.1%) and Golden State (39.2%) are the two worst shooting teams in the entire WNBA, and no one shoots more either, combining for 143.4 field goal attempts per game. Interestingly, these clubs allow the fewest shots on average, totaling 125.5.
Offensively, the Valkyries have offset some of their inefficiency with elite perimeter shooting, ranking second in the WNBA at 35.9% from beyond the arc while attempting a league-high 30.4 threes per contest.
The Sun, meanwhile, struggle to generate easy offense. They average the fewest free throw attempts per game (18.1) and own the league’s worst free throw percentage at 68.5%.
The Valkyries are incredibly stingy, pacing the league by allowing just 77.6 points per game.
Sun vs. Valkyries Prediction
With Brittney Griner expected back in Connecticut’s lineup, we’re targeting the under on Aaliyah Edwards’ 9.5 points prop.
Edwards has exceeded this line in three of her four games this season, but she’s shooting a highly efficient 52.9% from the floor.
The forward has yet to make a 3-pointer this season and is only 4-of-5 at the free throw line, a likely unsustainable hit-rate for a career 65.1% shooter at the stripe.
Edwards has only shared the floor with Griner in one game this season, an 83-82 loss in Portland. She scored 12 points on 5-of-6 shooting but was limited to a season-low 17 minutes.
Action Pro projects Edwards for 8.14 points, creating the largest edge for this game at 18.5%.
Against the league’s top scoring defense and with Griner expected to reclaim a significant offensive role, this sets up as a difficult spot for Edwards to clear double-figures again.
Best Bet: Aaliyah Edwards Under 9.5 Points (-110)
